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UK Election Forecasting - YouGov Snatches Defeat from the Jaws of Victory!

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jul 07, 2017 - 06:06 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The most notable outlier forecast of the 2017 UK general election was YouGov's seats forecast announced about 2 weeks prior to the general election that was contrary to every other pollster and analysts at the time. Initially YouGov forecast that the Tories would only achieve 310 seats.


Whilst at the time expectations were for a significant increase in the Tory majority to as high as 400 seats as the following table of forecasts towards the end of the election campaign illustrates:

Furthermore YouGov would continue to revise Tory expectations lower which towards the end of the campaign had the Tories on just 302 seats, which would have represented a disastrous election outcome for Theresa May, translating into a Labour Coalition of Chaos government, one of where the SNP would be calling the shots.

But barely hours before the polls opened YouGov snatched defeat from the jaws of election forecasting victory with their final election call that put YouGov firmly back in the pack of the consensus of election forecasters :

Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority"

Though, in reality whilst YouGov's Tory seats tally of 302 would have been the closest to the final tally of 318 seats. Nevertheless would have still proven to be wrong as the Tories on 318 did manage to continue in government with DUP support which would not have been possible if the Tories had only achieved 302 seats. So in reality YouGov would still have gotten the election outcome wrong, even if they had stuck to their forecast instead of bottling out in the final hours.

GE 2017
GE 2015
Conservatives
318
331
-13
Labour
262
232
+30
SNP
35
56
-21
Lib Dem
12
8
+4
Other
24
23
+1

 

Also see my following video for 9 key forecasting lessons learned for the NEXT UK general election :

https://youtu.be/qL2sTLpeCGI (20 mins)

And do subscribe to our youtube and free newsletter for my forthcoming in-depth analysis and financial markets trend forecasts as hopefully we won't need to worry about another general election for at least a year.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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