Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

We Will Face The Greatest Stock Market Turning Point In October- Beware!

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Jul 19, 2017 - 03:06 AM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Stock-Markets

Normally the worst season for the stock market is between July and November, especially August through mid-October, with September the worst month for losses (on average, of course).

The first wave of the 1929 to 1932 crash ran from early September into mid-November, claiming a loss of 47% in just two and a half months.


This year, this time frame could be equally dangerous…

I’m a long-term forecaster, so I look to Andrew Pancholi at markettimingreport.com to fine tune the shorter-term situation. That’s not an easy task. And it’s impossible to be right all of the time. If you can nail short-term forecasts about 60% or 70% of the time, you’re a hero in this realm!

Andy has some very impressive long-term cycles, as attendees of our Palm Beach Irrational Economics Summit last October learned. But he also has some impressive shorter-term models that show some major turning points over the next few years.

A turning point can go either direction. Andy can only give an estimate of whether we’ll see a boom or a bust as the date approaches.

To date, he’s been eerily accurate!

Now, guess what?

The strongest spike for a turn point hits in October!

This is the biggest spike he’s seen over more than 20 years, and from his models, looks to be the biggest one we’ll see during the next 10.

His weekly models point specifically to around October 20.

Both of us believe that could be the top of the greatest bubble in history.

His second greatest spike of the last few decades came in late 2002, right near the bottom of the great tech wreck crash.

Andy also sees possible turning points later this month and in late January 2018.

The most likely scenario at this point – and Andy and I will continue to reevaluate as it develops – is that we see an intermediate top in the stock markets by the end of the third week of this month, with a 5% to 10% crash into late August or early September. Then we get a final bubble run into mid- to late October followed by the classic bubble burst of 30% to 50% within two to three months, into January or so.

The question is, what will be the trigger of these events? I tackle this question in the latest issue of Boom & Bust. I also look at the role President Donald Trump plays in this rally, and its inevitable reversal… the shocking shift we’re about to see in employment numbers and what that could mean for the stock market… and the biggest danger facing Europe right now.

Then our model portfolio manager, Charles Sizemore, adds a new recommendation this month to take advantage of the deflationary environment ahead.

A major peak finally looks imminent after Janet Yellen’s statement that “we won’t see another financial crisis in our lifetime.” And now Alan Greenspan has added that he doesn’t see signs of irrational exuberance… like a market that believes Trump is going to wave a magic wand and create 4% growth again isn’t irrational?! Like 29-times cyclically adjusted earnings, headed for 32 as in 1929, isn’t overvalued?!

Our experts suffer from the typical human condition: The more a trend goes up, the more we believe in it and see less risk. History has proved time and again that this view of the way of things are is always to our detriment.

This bubble looks to be in its final stages. A divergence between small and large cap stocks after the next correction will be the best confirmation.

Keep reading.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2017 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in