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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Are Amey Street Tree Felling's Devaluing Sheffield House Prices?

Housing-Market / UK Housing Oct 17, 2017 - 02:14 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

Sheffield City Council's Streets Ahead PFI Contract with the multinational Amey apparently also means that many of the Sheffield's tree lined suburbs are being stripped of virtually all of their big trees that have taken over 100 years to grow to their current magnificent house prices boosting splendour.

The big question is does felling of these community assets valued at approx £50k each (CAVAT method) also mean that the properties on these streets are also being felled / devalued?


We'll here's an example of what happened to one tree lined Sheffield street over the course of a couple of months during 2017, so you can make you your own minds up whether this street is now more or less appealing to prospective home buyers.

What is happening to Sheffield will form part of the drivers for house prices as part of my comprehensive review of my forecast for UK house prices as of December 2013 with key forth coming areas being :

1. CITIES ECONOMIC AUSTERITY

Britains' largest cities such as Sheffield are feeling the real effects of crumbling infrastructure as a consequences of 9 years of economic austerity prompting house prices value destroying local council actions.

2. THE LONDON BUBBLE - The centre of Britain's housing market, from which all UK property trends ripple out in waves of either euphoria or despair. A reminder that I have been bearish on the prospects for the London housing market for some time as my video analysis of December 2015 illustrates.

3. UK HOUSE PRICES TREND FORECAST - Aiming to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast.

4. US HOUSE PRICES TREND FORECAST - And lastly my 3 year US house prices forecast successfully concluded early 2016. The forecast trend of which was in the face of overwhelming doom and gloom for the duration of the then unfolding US housing bull market that I will now attempt to map out a new forecast trend for another 3 years.

Therefore ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for my forthcoming of 4 pieces of in-depth analysis that seek to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for the UK house prices:

UK House Prices Forecast

My 5 year UK house prices forecast has now passed its 3 1/2 year mark that originally forecast a 55% rise from November 2013 to the end of 2018.

30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, The Debt Fuelled Election Boom

UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018 - Conclusion

This forecast is based on the non seasonally adjusted Halifax House prices index that I have been tracking for over 25 years. The current house prices index for November 2013 is 174,671, with the starting point for the house prices forecast being my interim forecast as of July 2013 and its existing trend forecast into Mid 2014 of 187,000. Therefore this house prices forecast seeks to extend the existing forecast from Mid 2014 into the end of 2018 i.e. for 5 full years forward.

My concluding UK house prices forecast is for the Halifax NSA house prices index to target a trend to an average price of £270,600 by the end of 2018 which represents a 55% price rise on the most recent Halifax house prices data £174,671, that will make the the great bear market of 2008-2009 appear as a mere blip on the charts as the following forecast trend trajectory chart illustrates:

The most recent UK average house prices data for June 2017 (£218,390) is showing a 10% deviation against my forecast trend trajectory, which if it continues to persist then in terms of the long-term trend forecast for a +55% rise in average UK house prices by the end of 2018 would then translate into a 14% reduction in the forecast outcome to approx a +41% rise by the end of 2018.

As for my current thoughts on the prospects for UK house prices for 2017. We'll I would not be surprised if UK house prices ended the year down by between -1% to -2%, a mini bear market that could be a harbinger of far worse to come during 2018. So again do ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for my 4 forthcoming pieces of in-depth analysis and trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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