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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

More New Record Highs As S&P 500 Gets Closer To 2,600 Mark

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Oct 23, 2017 - 12:37 PM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Friday's intraday trading outlook was neutral. It proved wrong because the S&P 500 index gained 0.5%, following higher opening of the trading session. The broad stock market accelerated its uptrend on Friday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. On the other hand, we still can see some short-term overbought conditions. Therefore, we prefer to be out of the market today, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades.


Our intraday outlook is neutral today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.4% and 0.7% on Friday, extending their long-term uptrend, as investors' sentiment remained very bullish following Thursday's rebound off support level. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high at the level of 2,575.44. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another all-time high at the level of 23,328.84. It accelerated its recent run-up, as investors were euphorically buying blue-chip stocks. The technology Nasdaq Composite was relatively weaker than the broad stock market. However, it reached new record high at the level of 6,640.03, around 0.1% above its Wednesday's high. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,565, marked by Friday's daily gap up of 2,562.36-2,567.56. The next support level remains at around 2,550, marked by previous level of resistance, among others. The next support level is at 2,540, marked by recent fluctuations. On the other hand, potential resistance level is at around 2,600. The S&P 500 index accelerated its uptrend, as it broke above recent consolidation. Will it continue even higher? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some medium-term technical overbought conditions:

Close To New Record High

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are slightly positive, with index futures currently between +0.1% and +0.2% vs. their Friday's closing prices. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.2-0.5% so far. There will be no new important economic data announcements. However, investors will wait for quarterly corporate earnings releases. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, following an overnight rally. The market has reached new record high above the level of 2,575. The nearest important support level is at 2,565-2,570, marked by recent fluctuations. The next level of support remains at 2,560, marked by Wednesday's local high. The futures contract trades close to its new record high, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Nasdaq Still Relatively Weaker

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it extends its Friday's uncertainty. The market fluctuates along record high, close to resistance level of 6,130. The support level remains at 6,080-6,100. The next support level is at around 6,050, marked by Thursday's daily low. The Nasdaq 100 futures contract extends its fluctuations along last week's highs, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Let's take a look at Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) again. The stock remains relatively weaker than record-breaking broad stock market gauges. It broke below its short-term upward trend line on Thursday, after reaching resistance level of $160. The stock price bounced off support level at around $150 at the end of September. Is this a new downtrend or just downward correction following recent advance?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) shows that blue-chip index accelerated its long-term uptrend last week. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see technical overbought conditions. Is this a medium-term blow-off top pattern?

Concluding, the S&P 500 index continued its long-term uptrend on Friday, as it reached new all-time high at the level of 2,575.44. Investors' sentiment remained very bullish ahead of quarterly earnings releases. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see technical overbought conditions. Is this some medium-term topping pattern before downward correction?

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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