I have the SPX on just day two of a new short term Trading Cycle but many of the technical indicators I watch are showing signs that the momentum of the SPX’s longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle (IC) are starting to stall near the 3 month mark of the current IC Uptrend. My first Daily chart shows volatility has returned and we often see this at cycle turns. Yes we are on day 2 out of a TCL/DCL but my second chart also shows 3 key TA indicators that may be signaling a top forming on the SPX’s longer Intermediate Cycle.

One of our subs pointed out that there was an extremely large WSJ Selling on Strength on the SPX on Thursday’s surge out of the TCL (over 700 million in large block trades). My expectations are still that stocks will likely retest the recent highs at the very least in the next week or so but I plan to keep a tight leash on my positions based on my 4 charts below.

While I do not believe this is the top of this Bull market just yet, stocks likely need a normal Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) to reset investor sentiment to bearish for the next leg up in 2018. My 3rd chart is a 3 Year weekly showing you that the SPX is in my timing band to find its next Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). Lastly, my 4th chart shows that the last two ICLs were very mild and did not even have a failed short term Trading Cycle (TCL). My expectations are that this will change back to the Cycle Nom if we are to find the next YCL near the 5-6 month mark. If I am correct, the lower blue uptrend lines in my last two charts should break down during the move into the YCL.

By Surf City

https://surfcity.co/

Everything about Cycle Investing

© 2017 Surf City - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.