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Urgent Stock Market Message

Dow Stock Market Trend Expectations into Early 2018

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Jan 01, 2018 - 01:10 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


2017 surprised most by proving to be one of the greatest years of the past decade for stock investors, traders and gamblers as bull markets appeared everywhere as the financial markets basically discounted Trump as an irrelevance, a side-show for the masses to be distracted by and focus upon whilst the wealthy continued to concentrate each nations wealth into their own hands. The Dow ended the year at 24,719, up 4,957 points for an exceptionally strong 25% gain, a remarkable performance for what at the start of the year was seen as being a mature 8 year old bull market. Whilst the S&P gained 19% and the Nasdaq 29%. With the FTSE lagging behind for a 15% gain. Which given where we began the year and the chaos that the BrExit election wrought is definitely nothing to complain about for UK investors!

A quick look at the Dow chart shows that despite being overbought, the Dow is not showing signs for an imminent demise to this stocks bull market. Whilst the most probable trend likely to materialise over the first few months of 2018 is for the Dow to revert back down towards hugging the central trendline that currently stands at very distant 23,000. So ahead of my in-depth analysis I would not be one for expecting the Dow's December surge to continue during January, instead expect the Dow to unwind its overbought state.

However the risks to this expectation are that the stock market could be about to enter a terminal bubble phase and go parabolic to well beyond what can be determined from chart analysis as illustrated by what Bitcoin did during 2017.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for my forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2017 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


04 Jan 18, 17:06
DJIA buy signal

Yesterday's close was a buy signal that may be the last big buy signal in this bull market. - If the market accelerates form here - which is the most probale scenario. Since 2016 the Dow has been showing a tendency to ever shallower reactions, and persistently steeper ascent. These conditions can easily lead to a climax and a top by April 2018.

Which is not so unfortunate : such moves offer opportunities to pyramide but the main rule is this : take all profit at the divergeance that appears at the top :)

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