Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Sheffield "Mi Amigo" Memorial Fly Past , BBC Crew Setting Up Stage for Breakfast TV Endcliffe Park - 21st Feb 19
Stocks Closer to Medium-Term Resistance Level - 21st Feb 19
The Stock Market’s Momentum is Extremely Strong. What’s Next for Stocks - 21st Feb 19
QE Forever: The Fed's Dramatic About-face - 21st Feb 19
Gold Technical Perspective – Why So Bullish? - 21st Feb 19
Sheffield "Mi Amigo" Memorial Fly Past at 8.45am on 22nd Feb 2019 - 20th Feb 19
Here’s The Real Reason You Stress About Money - 20th Feb 19
Five Online Marketing Predictions that will Matter in 2019 - 20th Feb 19
Has Gold Price Reached Upside Resistance Near $1340-1360? - 20th Feb 19
So Many Things are Not Confirming Stock Market Rally - 20th Feb 19
Forex Trading Management: The Importance of Being Prepared - 19th Feb 19
Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template - 19th Feb 19
Here’s Why The Left’s New Economic Policies Are Just Stupid - 19th Feb 19
Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? - 19th Feb 19
Why Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious Going Forward - 19th Feb 19
The Corporate Debt Bubble Is Strikingly Similar to the Subprime Mortgage Bubble - 18th Feb 19
Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor - 18th Feb 19
Get ready for the Stock Market Breakout Pattern Setup II - 18th Feb 19
It's Blue Skies For The Stock Market As Far As The Eye Can See - 18th Feb 19
Stock Market Correction is Due - 18th Feb 19
Iran's Death Spiral -- 40 Years And Counting - 17 Feb 19
Venezuela's Opposition Is Playing With Fire - 17 Feb 19
Fed Chairman Deceives; Precious Metals Mine Supply Threatened - 17 Feb 19
After 8 Terrific Weeks for Stocks, What’s Next? - 16th Feb 19
My Favorite Real Estate Strategies: Rent to Live, Buy to Rent - 16th Feb 19
Schumer & Sanders Want One Thing: Your Money - 16th Feb 19
What Could Happen When the Stock Markets Correct Next - 16th Feb 19
Bitcoin Your Best Opportunity Outside of Stocks - 16th Feb 19
Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera Under SEA Water Test - 16th Feb 19
"Mi Amigo" Sheffield Bomber Crash Memorial Site Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 VR360 - 16th Feb 19
Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run - 15th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders - 15th Feb 19
Retail Sales Crash! It’s 2008 All Over Again for Stock Market and Economy! - 15th Feb 19
Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? - 15th Feb 19
Virgin Media's Increasingly Unreliable Broadband Service - 15th Feb 19
2019 Starting to Shine But is it a Long Con for Stock Investors? - 15th Feb 19
Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why - 15th Feb 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Real Secret for Successful Trading

US Markets vs Govt Shutdown: Stock Markets at all time highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Jan 22, 2018 - 07:03 AM GMT

By: Submissions


ARB Cap writes: As US government shuts down, markets march higher. Political turmoil does not seem to immediately affect equity bulls. Much of it has o do with the US bond market selling off with 10 year rising over 3% mark only for the second time in the last 5 years. As money pours out of bond markets, it is rolling into equity markets. Are we on the cusp of a super inflation cycle of the likes seen in 1980s ?

The 10 year US treasury bond yield is at 2.64% but it is breaking above the long term bear trend existing since 1994. Money is pouring out of bond markets as the carnage is about to begin. As yields rise, markets start to expect higher inflation cycle which in turn raise rate hike expectation. It is worthwhile to remind the last it did flirt with breaking out of the bear trend in 2014, yield fell back sharply down again.

Consumer Sentiment

The consumer sentiment trend has been rising.


Volume breakout in S&P500 index. The index is at all time highs even as political turmoil takes over in washington.

Dow jones Transport index has moved 20% since December. The transport index is often a premover to the S&P index. We see no signs of exhaustion as volume are still solid positive.

The TREND indicator from abrcap is strongly positive as markets break to new highs. As many of you know, this indicator has always stayed positive for the last 3 months and even when markets has been taking intermediate corrections, the indicator has been screaming buy. Currently it is at +4 which is the highest it can go. Market internals are strongly bullish.

The institutional ownership on an average has been falling all through 2017. For a sustainable rally long term, one needs the institutional money to keep supporting the rally. It seems more if retail money is taking over from institutional hands. So weak hands are replacing strong hands. It does raise the question then if we are in the last of a superlative bull run in equity markets.

The reason for rising yield on 10 year could also be sustained political uncertainty is making overseas investor nervous onto holding US bonds. China has conveyed that it will be reducing its US treasury purchases. Things are starting to bleak for US bonds.

US Market shutdown
If lawmakers can’t get the job done by 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, hundreds of thousands of workers would be furloughed, many federal contracts with businesses would be suspended and government services that support private firms would be halted. That means, for example, mortgage applications would be delayed and drilling permits languish. While it’s difficult to separate effects of the 16-day shutdown in 2013 from debt limit brinkmanship during the same period, a report from the Obama administration budget office estimates the last partial closure knocked 0.2-0.6 percentage point off of GDP for the quarter.

GENESIS is premier investing dashboard. It offers the following:
Free Registration
Strategies: ABRCAP runs four stellar trading strategies. They run on a 100,000 USD account. Trades are shared with clients. All four strategies have made over +200% return this year. You can easily replicate them into your portfolio.
Stock Scoring: Over 13000 stocks scored on fundamentals, volume data, price data. Individual ratings allow investors to get an immediate understanding of whether to analyse a stock further.
Screens: GENESIS provides ETF, Industry and stock level screens. The screener inside GENESIS is indepth. It provides both fundamental and technical filteration.
User Screens: Users can share their own portfolio of stocks and others can view and interact.
Come become part of our community
Live Trade Room: All clients get to use the live trade room where live updates and earning releases are updated real time. Manual setups are discussed and all in all a great place to enjoy others company.

About us: is a US stock data analytics firm offering advanced trading strategies, live trade room and an advanced boutique screener. Daily stock market updates, Earning releases, Earning analysis and Earning transcripts are sent to all clients. Register free at

© 2018 ARB Cap - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules