Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated - 21st Oct 18
Gold Stocks Sentiment Shifting - 21st Oct 18
Why Is the Weakness In GBP/USD Likely? - 21st Oct 18
Stock Market Bubbles, Balloons, Needles and Pins - 21st Oct 18
The Incredibly Bullish Set-Up for Gold - 20th Oct 18
Here Comes the Stock Market Retest - 20th Oct 18
Waterproof Camera - Olympus Tough TG-5 Setup and First Use - 20th Oct 18
Israel’s 50-Year Time Bomb, Pushing Palestinians to the Edge - 19th Oct 18
Bitcoin Trend Analysis 2018 - 19th Oct 18
History's Worst Stock Market Crash and the Greatest Investing Lesson! - 19th Oct 18
More Signs of a Stocks Bull Market Top and Start of a Bear Market in 2019 - 19th Oct 18
Stock Market Detailed Map Of Expected Price Movement Before The Breakout - 18th Oct 18
Determining the Outlook for Gold Mining Stock - 18th Oct 18
Investor Alert: Is the Trump Agenda in Peril? - 18th Oct 18
Stock Market is Making a Sharp Rally After a Sharp Drop. What’s Next? - 18th Oct 18
Global Warming (Assuming You Believe In It) Does Not Affect Gold - 18th Oct 18
Best Waterproof Compact Camera Olympus Tough TG-5 Review - Unboxing - 18th Oct 18
Silver's Time Is Coming - 17th Oct 18
Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt - 17th Oct 18
Gold 7-Year Bear Market Phase Is Over - 17th Oct 18
Gold - A Golden Escape - 17th Oct 18
Tec Stocks Sector Set For A Rebound? - 16th Oct 18
Real Estate Transactions are Becoming Seamless with Blockchain-Powered Data Sets - 16th Oct 18
Important Elements of a Viral Landing Page - 16th Oct 18
Stephen Leeb Predicts 3-Digit Silver and 5 Digit Gold?! - 16th Oct 18
BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus - 16th Oct 18
Is this the Start of a Bear Market for Stocks? - 16th Oct 18
Chinese Economic Prospects Amid US Trade Wars - 16th Oct 18
2019’s Hottest Commodity Is About To Explode - 15th Oct 18
Keep A Proper Perspective About Stock Market Recent Move - 15th Oct 18
Is the Stocks Bull Dead? - 15th Oct 18
Stock Market Bottoms are a Process - 15th Oct 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

US Markets vs Govt Shutdown: Stock Markets at all time highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Jan 22, 2018 - 07:03 AM GMT

By: Submissions


ARB Cap writes: As US government shuts down, markets march higher. Political turmoil does not seem to immediately affect equity bulls. Much of it has o do with the US bond market selling off with 10 year rising over 3% mark only for the second time in the last 5 years. As money pours out of bond markets, it is rolling into equity markets. Are we on the cusp of a super inflation cycle of the likes seen in 1980s ?

The 10 year US treasury bond yield is at 2.64% but it is breaking above the long term bear trend existing since 1994. Money is pouring out of bond markets as the carnage is about to begin. As yields rise, markets start to expect higher inflation cycle which in turn raise rate hike expectation. It is worthwhile to remind the last it did flirt with breaking out of the bear trend in 2014, yield fell back sharply down again.

Consumer Sentiment

The consumer sentiment trend has been rising.


Volume breakout in S&P500 index. The index is at all time highs even as political turmoil takes over in washington.

Dow jones Transport index has moved 20% since December. The transport index is often a premover to the S&P index. We see no signs of exhaustion as volume are still solid positive.

The TREND indicator from abrcap is strongly positive as markets break to new highs. As many of you know, this indicator has always stayed positive for the last 3 months and even when markets has been taking intermediate corrections, the indicator has been screaming buy. Currently it is at +4 which is the highest it can go. Market internals are strongly bullish.

The institutional ownership on an average has been falling all through 2017. For a sustainable rally long term, one needs the institutional money to keep supporting the rally. It seems more if retail money is taking over from institutional hands. So weak hands are replacing strong hands. It does raise the question then if we are in the last of a superlative bull run in equity markets.

The reason for rising yield on 10 year could also be sustained political uncertainty is making overseas investor nervous onto holding US bonds. China has conveyed that it will be reducing its US treasury purchases. Things are starting to bleak for US bonds.

US Market shutdown
If lawmakers can’t get the job done by 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, hundreds of thousands of workers would be furloughed, many federal contracts with businesses would be suspended and government services that support private firms would be halted. That means, for example, mortgage applications would be delayed and drilling permits languish. While it’s difficult to separate effects of the 16-day shutdown in 2013 from debt limit brinkmanship during the same period, a report from the Obama administration budget office estimates the last partial closure knocked 0.2-0.6 percentage point off of GDP for the quarter.

GENESIS is premier investing dashboard. It offers the following:
Free Registration
Strategies: ABRCAP runs four stellar trading strategies. They run on a 100,000 USD account. Trades are shared with clients. All four strategies have made over +200% return this year. You can easily replicate them into your portfolio.
Stock Scoring: Over 13000 stocks scored on fundamentals, volume data, price data. Individual ratings allow investors to get an immediate understanding of whether to analyse a stock further.
Screens: GENESIS provides ETF, Industry and stock level screens. The screener inside GENESIS is indepth. It provides both fundamental and technical filteration.
User Screens: Users can share their own portfolio of stocks and others can view and interact.
Come become part of our community
Live Trade Room: All clients get to use the live trade room where live updates and earning releases are updated real time. Manual setups are discussed and all in all a great place to enjoy others company.

About us: is a US stock data analytics firm offering advanced trading strategies, live trade room and an advanced boutique screener. Daily stock market updates, Earning releases, Earning analysis and Earning transcripts are sent to all clients. Register free at

© 2018 ARB Cap - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules