Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom - Jim_Curry
3.Silver, silver, and silver! There’s More Than Silver, People! - P_Radomski_CFA
4.Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village - Sam_Chee_Kong
5.Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” - Troy_Bombardia
6.A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start - Martin C
7.A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View - Rambus_Chartology
8.Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD - Troy_Bombardia
9.Global Currency RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist - Jim_Willie_CB
10.The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know - Jeff Clark
Last 7 days
Fibonacci And Elliot Wave Predict Stock Market Breakout Highs - 21st May 18
Stock Market Ideal Cycle Low Near - 21st May 18
5 Effects Of Currency Fluctuations On The Economy - 21st May 18
Financial Conditions are Still too Easy for the Stocks Bull Market to End - 21st May 18
US Stock Market Elliott Wave Predictions for 2018 and Beyond - 20th May 18
Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos? - 20th May 18
US Stocks - Why I am Short-term Bearish, Medium-term Bullish - 20th May 18
Looking for a Turn in Gold Price - 20th May 18
GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 - 19th May 18
Semiconductor Stock Market Canaries: Chirp, Warble… Soon a Croak and Silence? - 19th May 18
Three Drivers of Gold Price - 18th May 18
Gold Market in First Tertile of 2018 - 18th May 18
What Happens Next When Small Cap (Russell) Leads the Stock Market - 17th May 18
Negative Signs for EUR/USD? AUD/USD - Battle - 17th May 18
DOW Jones and CRUDE Oil on a Cliff Edge, Waiting for a Nudge! - 17th May 18
Gold Price No More Subtleness – It’s Show Time! - 17th May 18
VIX Cycles Point to Stock Market Correction - 17th May 18
Trump Sounds End Times Armageddon Trumpet for Jerusalem, Israel Evangelical Prophecies - 16th May 18
Our Next Stock Market Dow Fibonacci Price Targets – Get Ready! - 16th May 18
The Coming Copper Crunch - 16th May 18
Stock Futures Are on a Sell Signal - 16th May 18
What to do When the IRS Comes for Your Property - 16th May 18
IS BITCOIN ANONYMOUS? - 16th May 18
Bitcoin Tide Might Have Turned - 15th May 18
UK Online Gambling Market Grows According to UKGC - 15th May 18
Stock Market Study: What Happens Next when Dow Goes Up 8 Days in a Row - 15th May 18
Fibonacci Price Ladder Points to Higher Stock Prices - 15th May 18
U.S. Dollar Rally Is Doomed - 14th May 18
Gloomy Scenarios for the Fed That Should Boost Precious Metals - 14th May 18
US Dollar One Reversal Too Many - 14th May 18
SPX futures are higher, but so is VIX - 14th May 18
Precious Metals and Miners NUGT – The Sleeping Giant Trade - 14th May 18
Is This The Netflix Of Cannabis? - 14th May 18
US Quest for Iran Regime Change: Will EU Sustain the Nuclear Deal - 14th May 18
Stocks Bears Last Stand - 14th May 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

Commodities / Crude Oil Feb 27, 2018 - 08:09 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG, rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, that's a 12% gain in less than 1 month!


Here is my latest updated expectations for the crude oil price for 2018:

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

TEXT VERSION:

Whilst here is a reminder of my opening expectations and forecast for the Crude oil price for 2018, which was for a bullish trend towards a target high of $80.

Crude Oil Forecast 2018

01 Jan 2018 - Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next?

Oil is clearly in a bull market and thus I expect the bullish trend to continue and would not be surprised if we see crude oil break above $80 during the year!

So given January's stellar bull run the oil price was running way ahead of expectations i.e. at this rate it would achieve its target for 2018 before the end of March. Of course that was not going to happen as virtually ALL markets simultaneously fell in the great correction of February 2018 which was triggered by the Fed deciding to burst the US bond market bubble, resulting in yields soaring on US treasury bonds and rippling out across all of the market, and so the crude oil price fell hard, wiping out ALL of its gains of 2018.

The oil price fell from a high of $67 to a low of $58 which whilst a deep near 15% retracement, nevertheless in my opinion did not amount to having to revise my $80 target for the crude oil price, not just yet anyway.

And that brings us to the present, where the oil price inline with other markets such as stocks, has recovered strongly to $64. That's a very strong 10% rise in less than 2 weeks, in fact the upwards velocity is virtually on par with the earlier price plunge which suggests that the oil market price gyrations are definitely falling prey to external market volatility such as that of US bonds and stocks which means whilst the oil price target for 2018 remains at $80. However the ride to that destination is likely to be very bumpy as February illustrates.

Current Technical Picture

MACD has turned bullish from a low base which suggests that the rally should continue.

RESISTANCE is at the previous bull market high of $67 that the oil price should experience some difficulty clearing.

SUPPORT is in the area $58 to $60, that should contain any reaction lower from failure at the $67 high.

TREND CHANNELS clearly illustrate that the oil price rally got a little carried away in January, hence the correction. However they also suggest that the immediate upside appears limited, again supportive of being within a trading range.

ELLIOT WAVE - Suggests that the oil price is currently in a corrective B wave rally and thus likely to result in a C wave decline back towards the $58 low and perhaps a little lower.

CONCLUSION

Therefore the crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so with-in the high of $67 and a low of $58. Thus given that the oil price is currently at $64 is near resistant then the oil price should soon reverse lower to target $58 which is likely to be the trend for most of March 2018 before the next assault on the high as my longer term 2018 forecast for a $80 crude oil price remains in tact.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for my forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed stock market trend forecast.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules