Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market - 'Get Back In There And Sell, Sell, Sell'

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Mar 28, 2018 - 06:37 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

For those of you who remember the movie Trading Places, this was a famous scene that I always remember when we see emotional reactions in the market after a downdraft.

And, when I went to read articles being published over the weekend, it seems they were all pretty much in agreement with the sentiment expressed in this scene: “You idiot. Get back in there and sell, sell, sell.”


Markets go up. Markets go down. When the market is going up, people are telling you to “buy, buy, buy.” When markets are going down, people are telling you to “sell, sell, sell.” Sigh.

But, let me see if I get this straight. The fear of a trading war is what will supposedly finally “cause” a bear market based upon everything I am reading. I find that truly amazing. So, a trade war is going to cause something that all these events did not (many of which were supposed to be much more negatively impactful for our financial markets):

Brexit – NOPE

Frexit – NOPE

Grexit - NOPE

Italian referendum - NOPE

Rise in interest rates - NOPE

Cessation of QE - NOPE

Terrorist attacks - NOPE

Crimea – NOPE

Trump – NOPE

Market not trading on fundamentals – NOPE

Low volatility – NOPE

Record high margin debt – NOPE

Hindenburg omens - NOPE

Syrian missile attack - NOPE

North Korea – NOPE

Record hurricane damage in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico - NOPE

Spanish referendum – NOPE

Las Vegas attack - NOPE

New York terrorist attack – NOPE (market even rallied strongly)

Oh, I almost forgot. I thought rising rates were going to cause this market to come down? But, what did rates do when the market was dropping this past week? It sure looks to me like rates were dropping while the market was dropping too!?

So, as I hear about wars, tariffs, gathering storms, and death crosses, many are building up the fear needed to kick off the next major rally in the market. As for me, all I want to know is how the market is moving through the levels we are watching. You see, I can ignore all the noise to which most of you pay attention, as the numbers tell me the entire story I need to know.

When I was looking up over 2600SPX when all we heard about were “gathering storms” and an imminent “market crash” in early 2016, it was quite prudent to ignore the screaming of the masses. And, I think that it is equally prudent to do so at this time as well.

For me, this market is rather simple. As long as we hold over the 2400-2440SPX support region, I will be looking for a set up in the market pointing to 3000+. It would take a sustained break of 2400SPX to have me concerned something a bit more bearish is playing out sooner than I had expected. But, even so, it would not lead to a major bear market, but a 20-30% correction, which will set up the next major rally over 3000. But, I still think the greater probabilities suggest that this type of 20-30% correction will not begin until 2019. And, I will maintain that expectation as long as we hold over 2400-2440SPX support.

See chart illustrating the long-term wave counts on the S&P 500.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in