Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Trump Manchurian President Embarrasses Putin By Farcically Blowing his Russian Agent Cover - 19th Jul 18
The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - 19th Jul 18
Will the Fed’s Interest Rate Tightening Trigger Another Financial Crisis? - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Investor “Buy the Dip” Mentality is Still Strong, Which is Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - 18th Jul 18
A Better Yield Curve for Predicting the Stock Market is Bullish - 18th Jul 18
U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - 18th Jul 18
Cayton Bay Hoseasons Caravan Park Holiday Summer 2018 Review - 18th Jul 18
What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? - 17th Jul 18
Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits - 17th Jul 18
Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time - 17th Jul 18
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 - 16th Jul 18
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... - 16th Jul 18
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally - 16th Jul 18
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? - 16th Jul 18
Trump Fee-Fi-Foe-Fum Declares European Union America's Enemy! - 16th Jul 18
US Stocks Set For Further Advances As Q2 Earnings Start - 15th Jul 18
Stock Market vs. Gold, Long-term Treasury Yields, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve 3 Amigo's Update - 15th Jul 18
China vs the US - The Road to War - 14th Jul 18
Uncle Sam’s Debt-Money System Is Immoral, Tantamount to Theft - 14th Jul 18
Staying in a Caravan - UK Summer Holidays 2018 - Cayton Bay Hoseasons Holiday Park - 14th Jul 18
Gold Stocks Summer Lows - 14th Jul 18
Trump US Trade War With China, Europe Consequences, Implications and Forecasts - 13th Jul 18
Gold Standard Requirements & Currency Crisis - 13th Jul 18
Focus on the Greenback, Will USD Fall Below Euro 1.6? - 13th Jul 18
Stock Market Outlook 2018 - Bullish or Bearish - 13th Jul 18
Rising Inflation is Not Bearish for Stocks - 13th Jul 18
Bitcoin Picture Less Than Pretty - 13th Jul 18
How International Observers Undervalue the Chinese Bond Market - 13th Jul 18
Stocks Trying to Break Higher Again, Will They? - 12th Jul 18
The Rise and Fall of Global Trade – Redux - 12th Jul 18
Corporate Earnings Q2 2018 Will Probably be Strong. What This Means for Stocks - 12th Jul 18
Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Price Significant? - 12th Jul 18
Live Cattle Commodity Trading Analysis - 12th Jul 18
Gold’s & Silver’s Reversals’ Reversal - 12th Jul 18
The Value of Bitcoin - 11th Jul 18
America a Nation Built on Lies - 11th Jul 18
China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos - 11th Jul 18
Bullish Gold Markets in the Big Picture? - 11th Jul 18
A Public Bank for Los Angeles? City Council Puts It to the Voters - 11th Jul 18
Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - 11th Jul 18
Argentina Should Scrap the Peso and Dollarize - 11th Jul 18
Can the Stock Market Close Higher For a Record 10th Year in a Row? - 11th Jul 18
Why Life Insurance Is A Must In Financial Planning - 9th Jul 18
Crude Oil Possibly Setting Up For A Big Downside Move - 9th Jul 18
BREAKING: New Tech Just Unlocked A Trillion Barrels Of Oil - 9th Jul 18
How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies - 9th Jul 18
Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - 9th Jul 18
Are the Stock Market Bulls Starting to Run? - 9th Jul 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Apr 25, 2018 - 03:28 PM GMT

By: Jim_Curry

Commodities

Through my cycle work in the market, there is a current focus on the month of May to end up as our next decent swing low for the Gold market, with several mid-term cycles pinpointing this timeframe for a potential market bottom.

One of the more widely-followed cycles in the Gold market is the 20-week (approximately 100 trading days) cycle, which last bottomed back on December 12, 2017, doing so at the 1249.30 figure (continuous contract numbers). In using our cycle detrend, we can isolate this particular wave, which is shown on the chart below:


While there is no particular downside price target for the downward phase of the 20-week cycle, our current assumption is that it should end up as a countertrend affair against its prior bottom, which, as noted above, is the December, 2017 trough of 1249.30 (continuous contract). If this does end up as correct, then the probabilities are above-average that a push above the 1376 swing top (from January) will be seen on the next upward phase of this 20-week wave.

In terms of time, we publish turning points for Gold in our reports, with the next one of focus currently set for May 4th of this year, but which is plus or minus a day or two in either direction. With that, there is some focus on this date to mark the next decent low for the metal, if the recent decline lasts into that timeframe.

For the very short-term, the most dominant cycle for Gold is the 34-day wave, which is shown on the chart above. This wave has been seen as pointing south, ideally into the early-May timeframe, where it should end up bottoming the larger 20-week and 72-day cycles, with the latter shown on our next chart. On our chart, we can see that both our detrend and momentum indicators are declining, thus having confirmed our assumption that this 34-day wave was heading south in the near-term.

As for the 72-day cycle (chart, above), in order for this wave to actually confirm its bottom to be set in place, Gold would currently need to see a reversal back above the 1370.80 figure (continuous and June, 2018 contract). That has yet to materialize, with the recent spike up to the 1369.40 level able to contain that action, which has given us our favored path for a May price/time bottom. Ideally, we would like to see our 72-day ‘oversold’ indicator moving above its upper reference line as this wave troughs (note: this indicator reacts inverse to price action), something it has yet to do.

Stepping back, once the next 72-day and 20-week cycle trough is set in place, then a rally in the range of 8-16% should play out into the Summer months. That is, the normal low-end statistical rallies with these waves have been at least 8% off the bottom, while the average has been closer to 16%. Thus, we have some idea of what to expect going forward, once these cycles do low-out.

Lastly, in taking a look at our indications from sentiment, our proprietary Gold sentiment index (chart, below), divergences with this indicator have shown to good signals for mid-term turns in the Gold market, with the last of these coming back in February:

Once the mid-term signals develop, we have found that a daily close above or below standard-deviation bands to be good secondary signals for Gold. In other words, with our main trend indicator down, a close above the upper standard-deviation band normally occurs near price tops. The last such signal came on 3/26/18, with the metal trading at the 1360 figure.

Right now, we are waiting to see if another mid-term buy signal should develop in the days/weeks ahead, with our last mid-term signal to the buy side with sentiment coming back on 1/5/17 at the 1212 figure. All said then, there is some focus now on a potential May bottom for Gold, with the next key date of focus being the May 4th timeframe, plus or minus, where we will be keeping a close eye on the accompanying action with technicals - and with our indications from sentiment.

Jim Curry

Market Turns Advisory

Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com

goldwavetrader.com.

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of The Gold Wave Trader, which specializes in the use of cyclic and statistical analysis to time the markets. He is also the author of several trading-related e-books, including ‘The Volatility Reversal Method’, also ‘Cycles & Moving Averages’. He can be reached at the URL above.

Copyright 2018, Jim Curry - Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions.

JIm Curry Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules