Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away - 22nd Sep 19
How Russia Seized Control of the Uranium Market - 22nd Sep 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - 21st Sep 19
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? - 21st Sep 19
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? - 21st Sep 19
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? - 21st Sep 19
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Apr 25, 2018 - 03:28 PM GMT

By: Jim_Curry

Commodities

Through my cycle work in the market, there is a current focus on the month of May to end up as our next decent swing low for the Gold market, with several mid-term cycles pinpointing this timeframe for a potential market bottom.

One of the more widely-followed cycles in the Gold market is the 20-week (approximately 100 trading days) cycle, which last bottomed back on December 12, 2017, doing so at the 1249.30 figure (continuous contract numbers). In using our cycle detrend, we can isolate this particular wave, which is shown on the chart below:


While there is no particular downside price target for the downward phase of the 20-week cycle, our current assumption is that it should end up as a countertrend affair against its prior bottom, which, as noted above, is the December, 2017 trough of 1249.30 (continuous contract). If this does end up as correct, then the probabilities are above-average that a push above the 1376 swing top (from January) will be seen on the next upward phase of this 20-week wave.

In terms of time, we publish turning points for Gold in our reports, with the next one of focus currently set for May 4th of this year, but which is plus or minus a day or two in either direction. With that, there is some focus on this date to mark the next decent low for the metal, if the recent decline lasts into that timeframe.

For the very short-term, the most dominant cycle for Gold is the 34-day wave, which is shown on the chart above. This wave has been seen as pointing south, ideally into the early-May timeframe, where it should end up bottoming the larger 20-week and 72-day cycles, with the latter shown on our next chart. On our chart, we can see that both our detrend and momentum indicators are declining, thus having confirmed our assumption that this 34-day wave was heading south in the near-term.

As for the 72-day cycle (chart, above), in order for this wave to actually confirm its bottom to be set in place, Gold would currently need to see a reversal back above the 1370.80 figure (continuous and June, 2018 contract). That has yet to materialize, with the recent spike up to the 1369.40 level able to contain that action, which has given us our favored path for a May price/time bottom. Ideally, we would like to see our 72-day ‘oversold’ indicator moving above its upper reference line as this wave troughs (note: this indicator reacts inverse to price action), something it has yet to do.

Stepping back, once the next 72-day and 20-week cycle trough is set in place, then a rally in the range of 8-16% should play out into the Summer months. That is, the normal low-end statistical rallies with these waves have been at least 8% off the bottom, while the average has been closer to 16%. Thus, we have some idea of what to expect going forward, once these cycles do low-out.

Lastly, in taking a look at our indications from sentiment, our proprietary Gold sentiment index (chart, below), divergences with this indicator have shown to good signals for mid-term turns in the Gold market, with the last of these coming back in February:

Once the mid-term signals develop, we have found that a daily close above or below standard-deviation bands to be good secondary signals for Gold. In other words, with our main trend indicator down, a close above the upper standard-deviation band normally occurs near price tops. The last such signal came on 3/26/18, with the metal trading at the 1360 figure.

Right now, we are waiting to see if another mid-term buy signal should develop in the days/weeks ahead, with our last mid-term signal to the buy side with sentiment coming back on 1/5/17 at the 1212 figure. All said then, there is some focus now on a potential May bottom for Gold, with the next key date of focus being the May 4th timeframe, plus or minus, where we will be keeping a close eye on the accompanying action with technicals - and with our indications from sentiment.

Jim Curry

Market Turns Advisory

Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com

goldwavetrader.com.

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of The Gold Wave Trader, which specializes in the use of cyclic and statistical analysis to time the markets. He is also the author of several trading-related e-books, including ‘The Volatility Reversal Method’, also ‘Cycles & Moving Averages’. He can be reached at the URL above.

Copyright 2018, Jim Curry - Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions.

JIm Curry Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules