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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Labour Local Elections Landslide, Are Opinion Pollsters & Pundits Wrong Again? Sheffield Trees Case

ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections Apr 30, 2018 - 09:02 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The mainstream press backed up by the polling industry has once more built themselves up in a frenzy of reporting with much certainty that the Conservatives are heading for a blood bath in the local elections, with the epicentre London ripping out across the regions as Corbyn is NOW expected to build on his shock General Election result of last year that crippled Theresa May's government. All whilst forgetting that the same pollsters and pundits got last years general election very, very badly wrong! And so one has to beg the question are they wrong AGAIN, likely for the FIFTH TIME IN ROW!


Labour set for 'best performance' in London for 40 years at local ...

The Independent-26 Apr 2018
Labour is on course for its best performance in 40 years in London at next week's local elections, according to a fresh poll that shows Jeremy Corbyn's party enjoying a 22 per cent lead over the Conservatives in the capital. The survey suggests that in seven days' time as many as 51 per cent of Londoners ...

 

Labour's final push to seize territory from Tories in local elections

The Guardian-28 Apr 2018
This is the most important, closest and most keenly fought local election battle here in decades and canvass returns suggest the result is poised on a knife edge. “I would say the chances are 50/50,” says Simon Hogg, the Labour leader on Wandsworth council, which has been held by the Conservatives ...

 

How the local elections could ruin Theresa May

British GQ-25 Apr 2018
This is not necessarily rational: in the 2014 locals, Ed Miliband's Labour won the largest share of the vote for the fourth year running, achieving net gains of six councils and 324 council seats. Yet, a year later, David Cameron defeated Miliband in the general election, securing the Conservative Party its first ...

 

Red London: Labour is poised to take the capital

Spectator.co.uk-4 Apr 2018
In recent weeks, Tory MPs have been campaigning in London — and the experience has not been invigorating. 'Our council leader in Westminster, Nickie Aiken, thinks she is going to lose. Our leader in Wandsworth thinks he is going to lose,' says one. The two biggest problems on the doorstep are ...

 

Here's a reminder of just how badly wrong the pollsters, pundits, mainstream media and bookies have been in terms of forecasting the outcome of recent elections.

UK General Election Final Forecasts

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
Lord Ashcroft 6th June
357
Electoral Calculus .co.uk 6th June
361
216
3
48
Election Forecast .co.uk 6th June
375
198
8
36
Forecastuk.org.uk 6th June
350
225
8
44
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 7th June
371
199
12
46
* YouGov - Forecast 1 (Hung) 7th June
302
269
3
48
*YouGov - Forecast 2 (Con Maj) 8th June
362
     
Nadeem Walayat - Forecast Conclusion 4th June
358
212
12
46
Nadeem Walayat - House Prices 3rd June
342
BBC Exit Poll - 10pm 8th June
314
266
14
34
BBC Exit Poll - Revised 2.15am 9th June
322
261
13
32
Actual Result 9th June
318
262
12
35

*YouGov forecast

Note - Yougov in attempts to cover themselves against being wrong again published two opposite outcomes so that they could claim to have called the election correctly whatever the result! What a joke!

So that brings us to this years Labour landslide local elections. Firstly, it is beyond the capability of the Market Oracle to traipse around the country trying to figure out what is going on at the local level across Britain's 50 largest cities. Nevertheless, we have been able to intensely follow what is happening in Britain's fifth largest city, Sheffield. Which contrary to the propaganda being regurgitated at length across the mainstream media, an analysis of which points to an outcome in the exact opposite direction i.e. implying LABOUR is likely to LOSE seats rather than GAIN seats! Which if similar applies to most other areas of Britain then the pollsters, political pundits and pseudo analysts (journalists) are about to get another election very badly wrong.

Here's, why Sheffield and likely many other major cities are going to result in an election outcome that is the OPPOSITE of the consensus view. As Sheffield could see it's ruling Labour regime lose it's strong majority of 28 to result in an hung council, where one of the key issues here is that the Labour run council decided that Europe's greenest city would be better off with half the number of street trees and so began a crazy felling programme that came to a head in March 2018 that witnessed multiple arrests on a daily basis of peaceful protestors as the Labour council attempted and failed to bully Sheffield's anti tree felling protestors into submission, and similar patterns are likely across Britain's council for differing issues as my following video illustrates:

UK Local Elections Forecast 2018 - Trees vs Labour Sheffield City Council

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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