Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20
AMAZON Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 11th Jan 20
Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points - 11th Jan 20
Land Rover Discovery Sport 2020 - What You Need to Know Before Buying - 11th Jan 20
Gold Buying Precarious - 11th Jan 20
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity - 11th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Elliott Wave Analysis: Is US Dollar About to Turn?

Currencies / US Dollar Jul 05, 2018 - 06:04 PM GMT

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

Currencies

At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we use correlation as one tool to complement our forecast. We often use USDPLN as we believe it is good proxy for Dollar Index (DXY). In below’s chart, we overlay the two instrument, and we can clearly see they are nearly identical


Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis on USDPLN

USDPLN shows a clear 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure from 1.25.2018 low, and there’s also a momentum divergence at the end of wave 5. The current reaction lower in the pair suggests it has likely ended wave (5). Therefore, at minimum, pair should see a 3 waves reaction lower to correct the rally from 1.25.2018 low (3.3075). Due to the positive correlation with Dollar Index, we could say that in the short term, we can see USD weakness in 3 waves at least.

Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis on USDPLN: Bearish View (Scenario #1)

In Scenario #1 (Bearish view) above, the 5 waves rally from 1.25.2018 low is part of wave (C) of FLAT which starts from 9.4.2017 low. Thus, the decline from Dec 2016 peak to 9.4.2017 low ended wave ((A)) as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Then wave ((B)) correction is unfolding as an expanded FLAT Elliott Wave structure. In this count, USDPLN is ready to extend lower and will eventually break below 1.25.2018 low. As it has a positive correlation with Dollar Index, then we can see Dollar Index resuming the weakness to new low.

Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis on USDPLN (Scenario #2)

In Scenario #2, USDPLN ended cycle which starts from Dec 2016 high at 1.25.2018 low in wave “w” as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure ((A))-((B))-((C)). Wave “x” correction is taking place as a zigzag structure in which wave (A) ended at 3.8011. In this scenario, pair should pullback in wave (B) then extend higher 1 more leg in wave (C) of “x” to retest the Dec 2016 high. Even in this scenario however, US Dollar should still weaken at least in 3 waves in the short term due to the wave (B) pullback.

USDPLN broke 10 year trend line

It’s worth to mention that USDPLN broke trend line from 2008 low last year. The pair has since recovered and currently sitting at the same broken trend line retesting it. If the break is valid, then ideally the pair doesn’t close above the broken trend line and should continue to extend lower at least 1 more leg.

In this video today, we will analyze US Dollar through USDPLN (Poland Zloty). Below you can find the short term and long term outlook in US Dollar

Video on US Dollar Elliottwave Analysis through USDPLN

We do this type of analysis everyday in Live Session and Live Trading Room. If you’d like to know more, you can take our 14 days FREE trial. We currently also run 4th of July promotionand you could get 2 months subscription for the price of 1, effectively getting a 50% discount.

By Ayoub Ben Rejeb

https://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 78 instruments including Forex, Commodities, Indices and a number of Stocks & ETFs from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup and Weekend videos .

Copyright © 2018 ElliottWave-Forecast - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules