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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold'

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Aug 07, 2018 - 03:27 PM GMT

By: The_Gold_Report

Commodities

Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at the latest movements in the silver market.

The picture for silver looks dull and weak, and it has dropped back over the past month or two, like gold, in response to dollar strength. On its latest 14-month chart we can see how, after breaking support in the $16.15 area, it has dropped back to support close to the low of last July, where it is oversold. The intermediate trend must be classed as neutral/down as it is below bearishly aligned moving averages. Having said all that there is a fair chance of it turning higher soon, as in addition to being oversold and at support, its COTs now look bullish, as we can see on the latest COT chart stacked below the 14-month silver chart for direct comparison, with gold's COTs being more so, and with gold's seasonal factors now approaching their strongest for the year, silver may come along for the ride if gold now advances, which looks likely also because there is a good chance that the dollar will react back over the near-term, as we have observed in the parallel Gold Market update.


Click on chart to pop up a larger, clearer version.

Silver's latest COTs look bullish, with Large Spec long positions now at a low level. While Commercial short positions did rise significantly last week, a good part of the rise was accounted for by an increase in Small Spec long positions, and the Small Specs are not as dumb as the Large Specs.

On its 10-year chart, silver still looks like it is the late stages of a downsloping Head-and-Shoulders bottom. The fact that this pattern is downsloping compared to the similar one in gold, which is flat-topped, is normal as silver tends to underperform gold at the end of sector bearmarkets. However, for the pattern to retain its promise the price must stay above the support near to last July’s low—if this support fails then it would open up the risk of silver dropping back to the lower support level in the vicinity of its late 2015 lows, or lower, meaning new lows, which would probably occur at the time of a broad based 2008 style asset liquidation, which as we considered in the Gold Market update, is now a growing risk with the property boom running out of steam and the increasing threat to the global economy from trade wars.

Silver's seasonal influences are negative this month, in contrast to gold's, but are at their most positive for the year next month, September, as the following chart shows. However, despite this, if gold rallies this month we can expect silver to follow suit.


While it is not known for sure how the precious metals will react this time when the broad based asset liquidation occurs, involving an implosion in global property markets and a stock market crash, it seems likely that we will we see a rerun of 2008, only considerably worse, which will involve commodities as a whole crashing too, as most everything that can be sold is sold. In this scenario the dollar would be expected to spike briefly as a result of a dash to cash and gold and silver will probably drop hard, but bottom and reverse dramatically to the upside well ahead of the stock market hitting its crash lows. In the meantime, and provided that this crash doesn't occur very soon, a significant sector rally looks likely.

Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

Charts provided by the author.

CliveMaund.com Disclosure:
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund's opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund's opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.


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