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Heavy Truck Sales Sending a Bullish Sign for Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Aug 19, 2018 - 03:59 PM GMT

By: Troy_Bombardia

Stock-Markets

As you probably already now, Heavy Truck Sales recently made a new high for this economic expansion.


Heavy Truck Sales is a leading indicator for the U.S. stock market and economy because large ticket items are usually leading indicators. Heavy Truck Sales tends to trend downwards before an equities bear market or economic recession begins.

I think that Heavy Truck Sales will continue to trend higher in this economic expansion. But let’s assume the worst case scenario. Let’s assume that Heavy Truck Sales have peaked for this economic expansion.

Here’s what happens next to the S&P 500 (U.S. stock market) when Heavy Truck Sales peaks in each economic expansion.

 

Let’s look at these historical cases in detail.

April 2006

After Heavy Truck Sales peaked, the stock market rallied for another 1.5 years until it began a bear market.

November 1999

After Heavy Truck Sales peaked, the stock market rallied for another 9 months until it began a bear market in earnest.

November 1988

After Heavy Truck Sales peaked, the stock market rallied for more than 1.5 years before it began a “big correction”.

August 1980

After Heavy Truck Sales peaked, the stock market rallied for another 3 months before it began a “big correction”.

December 1978

After Heavy Truck Sales peaked, the stock market rallied for more than 1 year before it began a “big correction”.

March 1973

After Heavy Truck Sales peaked, the stock market was already in a bear market.

Conclusion

I believe that Heavy Truck Sales – a leading indicator for the stock market and economy – will continue to trend higher.

But even in the worst case scenario (Heavy Truck Sales has already peaked), the stock market will probably continue to trend higher. Th stock market usually begins a “big correction” or bear market at least a few months after Heavy Truck Sales has peaked.

Click here for more market studies.

By Troy Bombardia

BullMarkets.co

I’m Troy Bombardia, the author behind BullMarkets.co. I used to run a hedge fund, but closed it due to a major health scare. I am now enjoying life and simply investing/trading my own account. I focus on long term performance and ignore short term performance.

Copyright 2018 © Troy Bombardia - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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