Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Financial Markets Are Nearing the Line in the Sand

Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018 Sep 02, 2018 - 01:12 PM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Stock-Markets

Most of the classic technical indicators favor a continued rally in stocks into 2019.

And that’s still my preferred scenario for a final peak. One that happens in late 2019, coming off of this Trump rally that started in late 2016.

It could be near its peak growth rate after the 4.1% GDP report.

But it’s not likely to be sustainable for long given that we are running out of workers to rehire, and the real estate bubble seems to be finally be running out of steam due to such high prices making homes and rentals unaffordable.


So, do we peak just ahead, or could it sustain well into 2019 before peaking… and I see low chances of it sustaining past that point where our proven fundamental indicators are the lowest between 2020 and 2023.

The first warning sign for the near-term peak is the sharp collapse in the Smart Money Flow Index over this year’s rally after the late January 2018 peak.

But another warning sign is the collapse in China’s stock prices down 26% recently, after a second bubble peaked in late 2015, and crashed 49% into early 2016.

Such a continued crash would be a bad sign for the global economy, not just China. If it breaks much below its major support at 2,638, it’s due to crash to at least 2,000 in the next year, and more likely to 1,000 over the next few years. And it’s just a bit less than 1% from that level on Friday (8/17).

https://economyandmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/ENM_8-20.png

This has been a classic dead cat bounce scenario ever since that low in early 2016 – which is now failing again and approaching the lows of the last crash at 2,638.

The ultimate support level is 1,000, at the bottom in 2006 just before the first great bubble that peaked at 6,200 in late 2007 and crashed 72% to follow.

Emerging market stock indices are also down just over 20%, with a rising dollar and interest rates that they largely borrow in impacting them negatively…

This could be the next subprime crisis in debt, as most of global debt came from emerging countries since the 2008 debt crisis when the U.S. had lower interest rates and a lower dollar.

This is important.

It would come with an acceleration of the trade war which is already happening – and rising dollar and interest rates – which looks likely ahead by my longer-term forecast based off of chart patterns.

It’s a crucial trend for me and you to follow. If China’s second bubble heads down again, it would favor a top in late 2018 for the U.S. and global economy, since China has the second largest, fastest growing economy, and is the most leveraged.

China’s Shanghai has bounced a bit recently as we approach this critical level…

But a break much below 2,600 could be a curtain call for China.

And yet this is another indicator that stocks in the U.S. could peak earlier in late 2018 rather than late 2019, which is the final deadline for all of my indicators and cycles.

Cryptos like bitcoin are at critical levels, as is gold and Treasury bonds. These are all indicators of a coming crash if they move down much more.

I’ll keep you updated in this tricky and unprecedented period.

Either way, we’ll see a major crash by late 2019 into the early 2020s.

It’s already been determined by our most powerful Great Reset Cycle every 90 years.

It aligns with the Great Depression, which happened between late 1929 and early 1933.

And if the thought about crossed your mind about attending our Irrational Economics Summit, or you’re on the fence about the decision, the time to buy your ticket is now!

Seats are filling up quick this year. So don’t wait on it. There may not be much time left.

I’ve said it numerous times over the past few weeks, but Austin is the place to be. And Austin just happens to be where this years’ Irrational Economics Summit is being held, on October 25 through the 27.

With all the uncertainty in the market during this unprecedented time, you won’t want to miss out on the invaluable insight that’s to be gained from the many great minds speaking at this year’s event.

So, don’t wait any longer… The time is now!

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2018 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in