Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Gold – “Make Me Feel Good…Tell Me Anything” - 25th Sept 18
Sector Rotation Continues. Bullish for Stocks - 25th Sept 18
Whose Trillion is it Anyway? US Federal Government Shocker! - 25th Sept 18
Focus on the Stock Market’s Price Action and Ignore the Failed Hindenburg Omen - 25th Sept 18
5 Problems All Restaurant Owners Will Face - 25th Sept 18
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - 25th Sept 18
How the US Dollar Penalizes Emerging Asia - 24th Sep18
Stock Market Macro/Macro View: Waves and Cycles Part II - 24th Sep18
DJIA Makes New High  - 24th Sep18
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2018 - 24th Sep18
The Stock Market Has Been Exceptionally Strong this September. What’s Next for Q4 2018 - 24th Sep18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Trend Relationship Video - 23rd Sep 18
US and Global Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and the ‘Anti-USD’ Trade - 23rd Sep 18
Gerald Celente Warns Fed May Bring Down the Economy, Crash Markets - 23rd Sep 18
Top 3 Side Jobs for Day Traders - 23rd Sep 18
Gold Exodus to Reverse - 22nd Sep 18
Bitcoin Trader SCAM WARNING - Peter Jones, Dragons Den Fake Facebook Ads - 22nd Sep 18
China Is Building the World’s Largest Innovation Economy - 21st Sep 18
How Can New Companies Succeed in the Overcrowded Online Gambling Market? - 21st Sep 18
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Gold and Silver’s Stormy September

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Sep 05, 2018 - 12:21 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

There were only a few analyses that we started with a quote, and there were even fewer that we began by quoting a song. It may even be the first one ever.

I am the storm and I am the wonder
And the flashlights, nightmares
And sudden explosions

  • Royksopp, “What Else Is There”

And you will have all the above in September. At least if you’re going to pay attention to gold, silver and mining stocks.


We warned that the key factors had been in place for a long time and those who were willing to listen, have already positioned themselves accordingly. The multiple bearish confirmations, like the steady rise in the gold to silver ratio and the underperformance of mining stocks, have been repeated over and over again. And it looks like PMs are ready to take the main dive. Yes, gold will very likely soar to new highs, but not before an epic decline. Are you prepared?

In the early part of the previous week, the USD Index moved lower, while the precious metals sector moved higher. But, right before the end of the week, we saw that it was just a trap for those who really wanted to see gold rallying instead of objectively observing what was going on and unemotionally acting on the observations. Let’s take a look at the facts, starting with the USD Index chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Breakdown? You Mean Breakout?

The objective fact is that the USD Index closed the week above 95, so from the weekly point of view there was no decline. Despite the early decline, overall, the USDX moved higher by 0.02 last week. And it never really invalidated the breakout above the neck level of the reverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

Moreover, from the very short-term point of view, we just saw a breakout above the declining red resistance line and the USD rally continues in today’s pre-market trading (95.55 at the moment of writing these words). The outlook for the USD Index remains very bullish, not only from the long-term point of view, but also due to medium- and short-term signals.

Before moving further, we would like to briefly discuss one thing that is often misunderstood when discussing the outlook for the USD Index. It is often said that the USD Index can’t rally, because of all the problems in the US economy, the ballooning debt, etc. The problems are real, but they – alone – are not enough for the USD to either rally or decline.

What?! You’re saying that the key fundamental information is irrelevant?!

No. That’s not what we are saying. We are saying that the USD Index is… and index. Precisely, it’s an average of the currency exchange rates. The EUR/USD exchange rate has the biggest (over 50%) weight in the index and the USD/JPY exchange rate has the second biggest weight. This means that for the USD Index to rally, the dollar doesn’t have to be perfect. It just has to be a better option than the euro and the yen.

There is a saying that the currencies do not float, but sink at different rates (called inflation). If the non-USD currencies sink faster, the exchange rate mechanisms will cause the USD Index to rally.

The analysts that take a big magnifying glass when discussing what’s wrong with the U.S. economy, but that at the same time entirely ignore the situation in Europe and Japan are entirely missing the point. The situation in the U.S. can be very bad, the debt could be astronomical, but if the situation is even worse in the other major economies (especially in the EU and in Japan), the USD Index is still likely to rally.

So, the next time someone tells you how bad the outlook for the USD Index is, don’t ask them why they think the situation in the US economy is bad. Ask them why they think things are so much better for the EU and Japan. Getting “huh?” as a reply is a good indication that you might want to consider different sources of information.

Having said that, let’s move to the charts and their implications for the following days and weeks.

Gold’s Flag Is Over


At the moment of writing these words, the price of gold is trading at $1,195, which is well below the flag pattern. This is a strong signal that the correction is over, and that gold is now ready to slide much lower.

The moves that follow the flag patterns tend to be similar in size to the moves that preceded them. Gold declined by about 14.6% (April top – August bottom) before the pattern, so if it declines in a similar way (counting from the late August top), we’re likely to see gold at $1,221 * (1 – 14.6%) = $1,043.73 relatively soon. In other words, based on the recent flag pattern, gold is likely to slide to the December 2015 bottom. And our subscribers – have been prepared for this eventuality for more than a month.

If you think the above is bearish, just wait until we tell you what just happened in silver.

Silver’s Breakdown

At the end of August, silver closed the session at a new low in terms of daily and weekly closing prices. That’s an unconfirmed, but still major, breakdown. As an unconfirmed move, it wouldn’t have been so important, if it wasn’t for a different fact.

The thing is that the entire late-August consolidation was a pause that followed the breakdown below the rising red support line. So, the unconfirmed move is a part of a different move, in which the decline is already more than confirmed.

The implications are very bearish, especially that silver’s 2015 bottom is not far away and the gold to silver ratio is on the rise (the real long-term resistance is at about 100, not 80-85). This means that if gold is to move much lower shortly, then silver is very likely to slide below the 2015 lows. To be clear, we expect the same for gold, but we think that in the case of silver, the decline will be even bigger and more profound.

At the moment of writing these words, we have silver futures at $14.30, which means that the white metal already moved to new intraday lows of this year.

Miners’ Breakdown

Last week, the GDX ETF, a proxy for the mining stocks sector, closed below the previous 2018 weekly closing prices. In other words, we just saw a breakdown in terms of the weekly closing prices.

The HUI Index, an even more important proxy for mining stocks, moved a bit higher after breaking below the 2008 and late 2014 lows and then it declined once again. The breakdowns were verified. The decline can now continue.

The decline is likely to be big and sharp as there is no significant support all the way down to the 2015 and 2016 lows. That’s a big slide. And it may not end there. In fact, miners are likely to move to new lows just like gold and silver are. It’s not apparent how low they will slide, but it is likely that this becomes clearer once the entire sector moves lower. We’ll keep our subscribers informed via daily and intraday Alerts.

Finally, we would like to address the question that we’ve been asked multiple times recently. The SP Silver-Miner Indicator that we described in our Buy-and-hold on Steroids essay is not yet available for public viewing. We have it to use in our Excel spreadsheets, but we are not yet prepared to provide it on our website (it needs a few technical adjustments). But, please note that the first time when it’s really useful will be after the final bottom as THE bottom is likely to be immediately followed by mining stocks outperformance. The SP Silver-Miner Indicator will become exceptionally useful after that time, as it will help to detect the optimal moment for making the switch from miners to silver (at least in the case of a part of one’s portfolio).

Summary

Summing up, it’s very likely that the pause in the precious metals market is over and the next big move down is already underway. The move is likely to be sharp and the profits on the current short positions are likely to change from being huge to being enormous and then finally to being ridiculous. You might consider taking advantage of this move as well.

If you’d like to receive follow-ups to the above analysis, we invite you to sign up to our gold newsletter. You’ll receive our articles for free and if you don’t like them, you can unsubscribe in just a few seconds. Sign me up!

Thank you.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com
Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment - SunshineProfits.DE

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules