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Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Sep 14, 2018 - 05:31 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

This is my third article in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

  1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
  2. Trend Analysis
  3. Seasonal Analysis
  4. US Dollar
  5. Forecast Conclusion

However the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 9th of September. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The most reliable seasonal patterns are for a strong January and February, weak April, May and July, followed by a strong August and September which tends to be the best month of the year. Then the trend is expected to continue for most years into the end of the year with variable reliability for October and November.

So how has this years gold price performed against its seasonal patterns ?

The seasonal patterns proved reliable for January and February with all of the subsequent months to June proving mixed. July was reliable with August unreliable. Though it did see a strong rally off the mid month low. The implications are that there appears to be a right translation in the seasonal pattern i.e. the seasonal patterns appear to be stronger during the second half of the month than the first half which suggests September should be a strong month from mid month onwards. Given then gold is currently correcting this does appear to be the case.

So the seasonal chart is pointing towards a strong Gold price from mid September onwards, a mixed October into a weak November that rallies from mid month for a positive December.

The whole of this analysis and my concluding trend forecast has already been made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate access right now and First Access to ALL of my future analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And finally here's another unique view of The Shard, London's tallest building in VR 360.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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