Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold, Silver HUI Stocks Precious Metals Analysis

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Sep 28, 2018 - 02:10 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

In honor of the men staring at silver’s daily chart, let’s highlight NFTRH 518’s Precious Metals segment this morning. We have 60% of the new trading week in the books and not much has changed for the PMs since this was written. You’ll notice that this man who stares at charts gets a little wordy at the end. There is much context that would-be gold bugs need to have in hand.

First, the intro per our anniversary series of posts…

To celebrate NFTRH’s 10 year anniversary (Friday, Sept. 28) I’d like to present one segment from this week’s report, NFTRH 518 each day until Friday. These excerpts will give you an idea of what it takes to provide a top tier, best of breed product. But there is much more to a single weekly report than will be shown here publicly. Oh and don’t forget the dynamic in-week market updates as events dictate.


All for 30% less per day than you spend on your single cup of small regular coffee at Dunkin Donuts! Think about that. I mean, I don’t want to downplay the importance of coffee – it makes NFTRH run – but what is the value of consistent, focused and proven market intelligence at your fingertips day to day, week to week and year after year?

Precious Metals

Last week:

Here is how I see the precious metals situation. It’s one or the other of…

  1. US dollar declines short-term and the precious metals bounce with the rest of the anti-USD trade, or…
  2. US dollar rises (likely along with the Gold/Silver ratio) and the precious metals decline again into a real buying opportunity.

Thing 1 carried the day (week). I don’t care (well, actually I do but work with me here…) how many gold bugs leave the subscriber base while I am not able to give a long-term green light, but we are going to track the proper fundamentals, not the imaginary ones. And this bounce along with China, copper, global stocks, US stocks and everything else in the cyclical world is not proper. Not until all that crap tops out.

It. Is. A. Bounce… until it proves otherwise by seeing gold rise against CRB, SPX, ACWX and while we’re at it, global currencies.

So for now it’s just a bounce, and the [daily] Silver/Gold ratio did make a positive hint of Friday.

As is often the case, the sector will rally with cyclical assets if the rally is anti-USD and/or inflationary. This is not long-term positive signaling for the gold miners, however. Quite the contrary. So if you’re in them, enjoy the bounce – insofar as it continues – but be prepared to sell (if you are not positioning L/T) because if the other stuff liquidates the gold miners likely will as well, perhaps before hand and perhaps even more intensely.

Here is the view vs. stock markets; also not pleasing if you are a gold bug wanting to buy [gold stocks and gold related investments; it’s always a good time for physical gold as a value anchor & insurance] for the right reasons. Now, this pretty cyclical picture [risk ‘on’] could come apart tomorrow and then we’d pound a table, fundamentally. But here at NFTRH we have got to deal with what we see, not what we hallucinate. There’s enough of that going on in the gold “community” already.

Gold weekly is still stuck in the resistance zone during the inflationary cyclical bounce. Gold’s lack of participation is actually not such a bad thing when you think about it.

Silver however, would need to get going and lead during an inflationary play.

HUI got within 4 points of initial resistance at 150.

The daily chart shows that resistance area to coincide with the SMA 50. Folks, if it bounces again and funda do not change, I’d have some caution there.

I am going to skip the cavalcade of gold stock charts because well, on balance they are lousy (with some exceptions). I cannot in good conscience put too much into this sector at a time like this, when it’s bouncing and the fundamentals are not engaged. We looked for a bounce and finally it came. Unfortunately, it came as part of an anti-USD global asset bounce. It’s not legit.

I am not saying run out and sell gold stocks if you own them. I am saying don’t hold them if you think that inflation is going to drive all commodities up while the global economic cycle remains positive.

There are all kinds of different investors. One might have bought the hard spike down to the first support area of HUI 135 a couple weeks ago with the idea of adding more on a further crash to 100-120. But one is currently doing this against poor fundamentals.

Ah, but the story gets more complicated. Because, this…

One might be anticipating the end of a cycle and patiently adding quality names. That’s legit. What is illegitimate is this inflation pumping by the worst of the gold herd. There appears to be late stage cyclical stuff going on but these candles measure in months. For instance, even if SPX/Gold is close to topping out at the 2005 gap how many more months will it take for pure, unbridled speculation and greed to play out? And how unpleasant could it be all along the way for the lowly gold bug? Know who you are and how strong you are before positioning on forward expectations.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas, all archived/posted at the site and delivered to your inbox.

You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar and get even more by joining our free eLetter. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2018 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in