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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

Commodities / Crude Oil Oct 05, 2018 - 08:23 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.


So far the trend channel has held of breaking into the lower channel therefore current support is at $67 which should contain any correction lower. However whilst bullish, the trend channel curve as I mentioned in April is quite shallow which means the progress higher for the crude oil price is likely to be slow which so far is the pattern observed. So don't expect a sudden spike to $100 any time soon, instead it's a steady quiet trend higher, probably under the radar of many investors who likely will wake up to news of crude oil hitting $80 and wondering how it got there out of the blue.

RESISTANCE is at previous major support at $90 which suggests oil price trend should continue higher towards that level.

SUPPORT is in the area $58 to $60, and $64 that should contain corrections within the rising trend channel.

ELLIOT WAVE - Elliott wave is implying that the oil price will breakdown and target $60 BEFORE heading higher once more i.e. currently in a Wave 4 correction, of which approx half has been completed, therefore suggesting $60 rather than $80 by late December. So EW is not matching trend analysis.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS - oil prices tend to rally into late summer and then fall into early winter, which supports what elliot waves are saying.

FORECAST CONCLUSION

My forecast conclusion was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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