Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Kitchin Cycle Warned of Stok Market Volatility

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis Oct 28, 2018 - 09:07 AM GMT

By: readtheticker

Stock-Markets

Here are some names of cycle masters: Kondratieff, Dewey, Kitchin, to name just a few. Cycles are in all matters of life, including the SP500.

From Wiki

.."Joseph Kitchin (1861–1932) was a British businessman and statistician. Analyzing American and English interest rates and other data, Kitchin found evidence for a short business cycle of about 40 months.[1] His publications led to other business cycle theories by later economists such as Nikolai Kondratieff, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter"..


If you are a regular stock market watcher, you will notice during cycle up swings the media, bloggers, tweets are all positive and talk about the next 50% upward move, and during cycle down swings it is the exact opposite, doom and gloom and a crash is near. Some call this a measure 'sentiment', and determining when the market changes in sentiment is the basis of creating wealth. 

The news breaking now is : 
- Amazon earnings profit jump, but shares slump
- Caterpillar stock falls as warning of peak earnings
- 3M peak earnings

Great earnings, but stock slide, this is cycle ending type news. The massive story behind these news headlines is the US economy is changing back to pre-globalism. This is US producers switching from foreign commodities and parts to local sources. For example Ford, switched from Chinese steel to US steel, and will suffer the increase costs. The cost will be pushed on to consumers, resulting in inflation.

This is the US economy changing from a low cost external sourced raw material to a more internal higher cost sourced economy. In short this is transferring GDP from out side the US to inside the US, this will result in more local jobs and eventually inflation. This is the TRUMP plan which is better for main street, not so good for (1) Wall street, (2) those foreign sources who relied on the US demand engine and (3) the massive debt financing the globalism model.

The debt in emerging markets and China is growing in riskier every day. This fundamental change in the massive US demand model has yet to be played out in equity markets fully. 

The Kitchin Cycle suggest the unwinding of the leverage behind Globalism to American First policy has only just begun. After all globalism has been in operation for 40 years, hence you can expect at least 2 to 4 years of adjustment. No wonder the bankers and globalists CEO's do not donate to TRUMP 'make a America super dooper again'. And you can not blame the US middle class, they missed out on their billions, as globalism went to far, stripping out GDP from the heartland. Now the economic pendulum is swinging back (well while Trump is in power) and the change will bring pain to those who lose.

POINT: The point is the globalism leverage will crash. You can not make an American First omelet without breaking a few globalist eggs. Yes, this process will be messy, and the stock market will not be able to hide from it, after all 45% off all SP500 revenue comes from globalist activities (i.e exports). 

Investors will eventually rotate into defensive sectors: Bonds and metals. Watch for the change as the Kitchin cycle swings down. 

Here is a reminder how 'Wall Street Works'

.."The investing public are the sheep, the broker is sheep dog, the farmer is the back room strategist, and the paddock gate is the point of commission. Moving from one paddock to another is the change from one investing theme to another, and if the sheep do not move fast enough the sheep dog scares them enough to move. Yes this is Wall Street in its purest form!"..

POINT: Try to be first through the gate, and stay of trucks going to the meat works!

with Kitchin cycle (readtheticker.com allows members to draw all cycle types): 



A shorter cycle example


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Readtheticker

My website: www.readtheticker.com

We are financial market enthusiast using methods expressed by the Gann, Hurst and Wyckoff with a few of our own proprietary tools. Readtheticker.com provides online stock and index charts with commentary. We are not brokers, bankers, financial planners, hedge fund traders or investment advisors, we are private investors

© 2018 Copyright readtheticker - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The material is presented for educational purposes only and may contain errors or omissions and are subject to change without notice. Readtheticker.com (or 'RTT') members and or associates are NOT responsible for any actions you may take on any comments, advice,annotations or advertisement presented in this content. This material is not presented to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument (including but not limited to stocks, forex, options, bonds or futures, on any exchange in the world) or as 'investment advice'. Readtheticker.com members may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules