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Tory BrExit Chaos Cripples UK Economy, Wrecks Housing Market Confidence

Housing-Market / BrExit Nov 15, 2018 - 08:12 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

It was all supposed to be so straight forward, the people of Britain vote in a referendum, the results of which the politicians then carry out. Unfortunately, as the latest saga in an unfolding 18 month long BrExit nightmare shows that the Governments implementation of Brexit is turning out disastrously which has had a confidence eroding effect on the UK economy and housing market.

The general public, me included have long since become bored to death with the relentless Tory infighting that the mainstream media obsess over, one of deal or no deal coverage in the count down to the final deadline, though where the EU is concerned they are experts at kicking the can down the road so don't be surprised to hear news that the deadlines have all been kicked some months or even a year down the road.


The media's latest obsession is with Theresa May's dogs dinner of a 'deal' that is unlikely to get through the House of Commons, let alone convince the British people who voted to LEAVE or REMAIN that this 'deal' is what either side voted for. THIS is the unfolding chaos that Britain has suffered at the hands of an inept Prime Minister and Tory government who effectively committed political suicide at the June 8th General Election by placing the fate of the United Kingdom into the hands of Northern Ireland's 10 DUP protestant fanatics who also won't be supporting today's so called 'deal'.

My 5 year house prices trend forecast published December 2013 is now nearing it's conclusion, ending on release of December 2018 data during early January 2019. Therefore this analysis seeks to update the current state of Britain's housing market and its direction of travel into 2019 as well as starting the ball rolling on a series of analysis on key aspects of Britain's housing market towards to conclude in my next multi-year UK house prices trend forecast that I aim to complete before the end of December 2018. With many lessons learned from my existing forecast the most notable of which is that making a 5 YEAR forecast is pushing the envelope far beyond that which can deliver an accurate outcome in the later years of a trend forecast.

30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, The Debt Fuelled Election Boom

UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018 - Conclusion

This forecast is based on the non seasonally adjusted Halifax House prices index that I have been tracking for over 25 years. The current house prices index for November 2013 is 174,671, with the starting point for the house prices forecast being my interim forecast as of July 2013 and its existing trend forecast into Mid 2014 of 187,000. Therefore this house prices forecast seeks to extend the existing forecast from Mid 2014 into the end of 2018 i.e. for 5 full years forward.

My concluding UK house prices forecast is for the Halifax NSA house prices index to target a trend to an average price of £270,600 by the end of 2018 which represents a 55% price rise on the most recent Halifax house prices data £174,671, that will make the the great bear market of 2008-2009 appear as a mere blip on the charts as the following forecast trend trajectory chart illustrates:

A reminder that my original analysis and concluding trend forecast were made long before the likes of the EU Referendum were even a twinkle in David Cameron's eye, let alone the shock to the establishment when the people of Britain voted for BrExit despite the mass of money thrown at the REMAIN campaign, with the 'real' spend probably outnumbering the LEAVE by 5 to 1. Thus the establishment thought the referendum outcome was a done deal which is why all of the political pundits, bookies, financial markets and pollsters ALL got the outcome very badly wrong as my following video from the time illustrates the level of shock on BrExit night that delivered Theresa May as Britain's next Prime Minister as Brexiteer contenders backstabbed one other out of contention for the race for No 10.

And then finally after 9 months of Theresa May wasting time decorating No 10 we had Article 50 triggered on 29th March 2017, the countdown to Britain gaining independence from the European Super state, in the form of a NO DEAL Brexit which has always been my consistent view of being the most probable outcome regardless of persistently spews out of mouths of journalists, politicians, and other establishment vested interests.

The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called

Then came the consequences of Theresa May's disastrous decision to call a general election for the 8th of June that delivered Chaos and uncertainty' instead of 'strong and stable' which not only further shocked Britain's political and media establishment but also hit the UK economy hard, effectively suffering a heart attack with confidence fast evaporating as the economy slowed down which to this day makes a mockery of the Bank of England MPC clowns persisting in their talk of raising UK interest rates. And along with evaporating economic confidence has been the evaporation in confidence in Britians housing market that risks bringing a 5 year housing bull market to a premature end! And this is even before we see the chaos that will ensue once Theresa May finally quits as Prime Minister following her failure to manage Brexit, which will likely trigger trigger another chaos inducing general election!

Theresa May, the wrong person for the wrong job at the wrong time has even surprised me by just how badly she has steered Britain through the choppy Brexit Waters. For I had given her the benefit of the doubt up until the Catastrophic June 8th 2017 General Election, which despite reassuring utterances that continue to this day, in reality left her and the country crippled in the face of a Mafia style undemocratic European Union that has remained hell bent on the annihilation of the United Kingdom not just economically but structurally.

My view that The Tory Brexit Chaos would wreck the UK economy and cripple the UK housing market is not with the benefit of hindsight but has been my view virtually immediately following the disastrous June 8th 2017 general election outcome. As I warned near 18 months ago that Britain's house prices bull market faced impending doom, even a mini bear market that threw into doubt the remaining trend trajectory for my 5 year trend forecast that originally forecast a 55% rise in house prices over 5 years as my following article and accompanying video from July 2017 illustrate.

21 Jul 2017 - UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017

UK house price momentum has been steadily falling since Mid 2016 after having chugging along nicely at 10% per annum for a good 3 years, now falling to the current low of just +0.7% after a brief rally into December 2016 towards 7%. This is a clear red warning flag that Britain's 4 1/2 year housing bull market is in serious trouble and may even be ending!

As for my current thoughts on the prospects for UK house prices for 2017. We'll I would not be surprised if UK house prices ended the year down by between -1% to -2%, a mini bear market that could be a harbinger of far worse to come during 2018.

UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market

UK House Prices Momentum Forecast 2019

The analysis continues in part 2 which is first being made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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