Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

UK House Prices Momentum Forecast 2019

Housing-Market / UK Housing Dec 18, 2018 - 04:20 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

This analysis of UK house prices continues from Part 1 (UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning!) and was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.


UK House Prices Forecast Current State

The most recent UK average house prices data for October 2018 (£227,702) is currently showing a 15% deviation against my original forecast trend trajectory which implies to expect a 14% reduction in terms of the long-term trend forecast for a +55% rise in average UK house prices by the end of 2018 i.e. a +41% rise. This is inline with my revised forecast expectations as of July 2017 (UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017).

UK House Prices Momentum Forecast 2019

UK house price momentum steadily fell from Mid 2016 after having chugging along nicely at 10% per annum for a good 3 years, then falling to a low of +0.5%. Following which the pattern has been one of surges towards 5% resolving in house prices revisiting near 0%, followed by the next surge higher which appears to be the current trajectory.

This pattern is highly revealing for it suggests the government and the Bank of England's hidden hand at work towards preventing UK house prices from going NEGATIVE on an annualised basis. As negative house prices, i.e. a bear market would trigger a further loss of confidence and likely be accompanied with an economic recession.

Therefore despite the chaos of BrExit, it is CLEAR that the Government and the Bank of England are determined to do their damndest towards preventing the UK economy from tipping over into a BrExit recession, towards which keeping UK house prices positive on an annualised basis is one of their primary mechanisms towards avoiding a BrExit recession.

UK House Prices 2019

Current UK house prices momentum coupled with the government and central banks hidden hand suggests to expect average UK house price inflation of about 3% for at least the first half of 2019 and likely for the whole of the year. Where the current trajectory is for UK house prices to peak at about 4% to coincide with BrExit day 29th March 2019 before dipping back towards zero over the subsequent months. Compare this to the likes of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warning just a few weeks ago that UK house prices could fall by as much as 35% in a No deal BrExit! Regardless of what happens in terms of a deal or No deal BrExit a 35% drop is NOT going to happen! Most probable for 2019 is an average gain of about 3%, which I will fine tune further over the next few weeks.

Of course with so much BrExit chaos in the air then economic volatility will be high for much of 2019, with ever widening swings as the government effectively prints money to inflate UK house prices as being one of the primary mechanisms towards fighting off a recession which implies any dips below ZERO will be followed by even more intense counter measures to inflate asset prices.

The bottom line is that a 5 year house prices forecast is pushing the envelope too far in terms terms of forecasting reliability, as previously my UK house price forecasts tended to range for between 2 and 3 years. Hence why some 18 months ago I effectively revised my forecast expectations down to a +41% rise by December 2018.

So the key lesson learned for my forthcoming UK house prices multi-trend forecast that I aim to complete before the end of December 2018 is that 2 years forward as the optimum forecast period whilst 3 years should be seen as the absolute maximum.

Therefore expect at least 5 more pieces of housing market related analysis over the coming weeks covering population growth, house building, inflation, interest rates, affordability, London and regional prices in the countdown to my next multi-year trend forecast with momentum suggesting to expect a weak bull market during 2019, barely keeping pace with even CPI inflation (2.2%) let alone RPI (3.3%).

To get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules