Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Due for 9-10% Pull Back? - 25th April 19
Dow Transportation Stocks Sector Is Testing Resistance - 25th April 19
INSOMNIA i64 UK Best Games Festival Vlog of What it's Like to Attend - 2019 - 25th April 19
In Just 45 Mins., Learn to Spot New Opportunities in ANY Market for FREE! - 25th April 19
If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History - 25th April 19
8 Reasons Why Investment in Education Always Pays Off - 25th April 19
Want To Earn A Safe 5% In Fixed Income? Buy Preferred Stocks - 24th April 19
Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut?  - 24th April 19
Silver’s Next Big Move - 24th April 19
How Can a College Student Invest Wisely? - 24th April 19
Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached - 23rd April 19
Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio - 23rd April 19
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets - 23rd April 19
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity - 23rd April 19
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019 Feb 12, 2019 - 05:55 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.

Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.

However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.


In recent weeks GDX and GDXJ surged above the critical 400-day moving average which has been an excellent indicator of the primary trend dating back to 2012. That’s positive and hasn’t happened since the summer of 2017.  

GDX (top), GDXJ (bottom)

Moving forward, I see two plausible scenarios for the gold stocks.

They are either going to build a bullish consolidation (as I’ve sketched out below) or they will have a longer and deeper retracement which could lead to a test of the 200-day moving averages (not shown) near $20.50 for GDX and $30 for GDXJ.

GDX (top), GDXJ (bottom)

In the bullish scenario, look for the miners to hold above their 400-day moving averages and build a tight consolidation. If that develops, we would gain strong confidence in a bullish outcome.

In the bearish scenario, the miners would sell off below recent lows and threaten a test of the 200-day moving averages and the nearby open gaps.

Also, keep an eye on Silver, which like the miners will outperform when the sector trend is established. Note that on Thursday Silver bounced from the $15.60-$15.65/oz level which has been a critical level over the past two years. (See the arrows in the chart).

Should Silver hold that low then it should be able to rally above its 400-day moving average for the first time in over a year and test $17.25.

Silver

At the bottom of the chart we plot Silver against the S&P 500 and according to the 200-day moving average, that relative trend has turned in favor of Silver.

The bottom line is if GDX, GDXJ and Silver can maintain the lows from last week and firm up against the S&P 500 then they are likely going higher. If those lows break convincingly then look for a longer and deeper correction.

Essentially, should a bullish consolidation develop, we will prepare to put more capital to work. If not, then a deeper and longer correction is more likely which means we can be patient.

To prepare for an epic buying opportunity in junior gold and silver stocks in 2019, consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2014 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules