Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

UK Population Growth Trend Forecast and Housing Market Consequences

Housing-Market / UK Housing Mar 31, 2019 - 04:48 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

Instead my analysis so far (first made available to patrons) continues to paint a picture for UK house prices to remain on an overall upward trend trajectory.


uk-house-prices-analysis-2019

UK Housing Market Crisis Consequences

In terms of the impact of out of control immigration on the housing market, Channel 4's series 'How to Get a Council House' has done an excellent job of demonstrating the real world impact on the housing crisis, of how the mass migration statistics translate into real world examples of what is taking place right across Britain.

The series demonstrates how out of control EU migration is having a disastrous impact on Britain's housing market. For instance in one episode a Romanian family of 7 ( 2 adults and 5 children) is shown arriving into the UK at Hounslow's housing department demanding that they be housed, and after tooing and froing for a couple of weeks for the cameras, are then within 2 weeks housed in a 4 bedroom house in Birmingham at a cost to the tax payer of £750 per month! And in total will likely be in receipt of over £60k in benefits per year! (includes £25k cost for schooling for 5 children).

The episode continues with other recent migrants such including a single adult from Bermuda, who expected to be housed, and a family of 3 from Poland and Africa, again expecting to be housed and granted housing by the end of the episode.

Towards the end of the episode the housing support officer is asked "Do you think they should have been housed", to which he answers -

"I think it's a yes, no answer, it does not always seem fair and in this case I think the verdict will be open, there will be some of you who will think, we'll were glad for them. Others might think here's another case of the system being exploited. "

Whilst the romanian male of the family of 7 is asked "Do you know there is a housing shortage here in Britain?" to which he replies -

"I didn't know that, maybe I was one of the lucky ones"

The episode ends with a dire statement from Hounslow's Director of Housing - "We are seeing an increase in applications from overseas. We do not have the supply, we do not have the homes to put them in. The situation can only get worse and we will expect to see those numbers simply grow and grow."

The reality is apparent that eastern europeans know exactly what they need to do to jump the housing waiting list queues so as to achieve what British born people are unable to despite waiting for literally decades on what amount to worthless housing waiting lists. So when people say that migrants are being given priority over British people, well it is true for EU migrant families at least, for being HOMELESS WITH CHILDREN, means that they are treated as PRIORITY CASES, which is why the housing waiting lists that British born people have been patiently sat on for 20+ years, waiting to be re-housed remain FROZEN. And if Brit's make themselves homeless so as to put pressure on the Council, then the Council tends to turn around and inform them that they cannot be helped because they have INTENTIALLY made themselves homeless! Whilst virtually ALL europeans migrating to Britain WITH children are being given housing within 2-4 weeks which is the nature of Britain's decade long building housing crisis that has long since passed tipping point.

I have covered the consequences of out of control immigration on Britain's housing market many times over the years as illustrated by the following video of December 2015 that warned why London would become Britain's worst performing housing regional market which includes suffering outright falls in house prices over the next 3 years, which has subsequently come to pass:

UK Population Growth

The updated UK population graph shows UK population estimated at 66.57 million as of December 2018, against my trend forecast of 66.02 million. Which suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 1.3 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration that in total translates into a UK population increase equivalent to 10 cities the size of Birmingham by 2030.

In terms of house prices, then the trend trajectory remains the same, where Immigration remains a primary driver for UK population growth of 400k per annum amounting to more than 2/3rds of the annual population increase which shows no signs of diminishing to a rate anywhere near the level of annual UK house building (140,000 per year). Thus population growth will continue to put upwards pressure on house prices for at least another decade, even more so if Brexit actually happens as a post Brexit a higher caliber of immigrant would increase pressure on UK house prices as professionals tend to seek to get their foot onto the property ladder.

Which strongly suggests that unless net immigration falls to well below 100k per annum then any BrExit UK house price wobbles, even out right falls will prove highly temporary, as new building cannot even keep pace with existing pent up demand let alone the added pressure from that of continuing net migration of over 250k per year.

So my long-term message remains the same to those waiting to get a foot onto the property ladder, which is not to pin their hopes on any significant Brexit chaos fall or even crash in house prices such as the morons at the Bank of England ar presently forecasting a 30% Brexit Crash because as this analysis illustrates there are NO SIGNS for it actually materialising, which means those waiting to buy should act sooner rather than later, to get a foot onto the property ladder else face the consequences of ever rising house prices in the face of one of the primary fundamental drivers of UK annual population growth far outpacing house building courtesy of continuing out of control immigration, far beyond the 50k annual target that the Conservative government used to trundle out but now has given up hopes of ever achieving.

And where BrExit is concerned them my view is that Britain's REMAIN Parliament is preparing to subvert Brexit by means of a so called "Peoples Vote", which would amount to a FIXED 2nd EU Referendum with the objective of ensuring that REMAIN would win which would sow the seeds for much civil unrest and which has already put Britain into a Pre-Civil War state!

REMAIN Parliament to Subvert BrExit with Peoples Vote FIXED 2nd EU Referendum

The whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work - UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Trend Forecast. So to get immediate access right now and First Access to ALL of my future analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis concludes in a 6 month trend forecast for Stock Market from to September 2019:

Top 10 AI Stocks to Invest in the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

And my latest in-depth analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series updates my selection of top 10 AI stocks to invest in to capitalise on the unfolding mega-trend where I have warned to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why the hell did I not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!

Machine Intelligence Investing Mega-trend

So for first Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules