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U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture

Economics / Unemployment May 03, 2019 - 07:45 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.


Instead my analysis so far (first made available to patrons) continues to paint a picture for UK house prices to remain on an overall upward trend trajectory.

uk-house-prices-analysis-2019

UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture

Whilst the focus of this analysis so far has been the ratio of workers to retirees, however Britain also carries the burden of its benefits culture which has about 8.6 million people of working age who are sat idle, this is set against the official unemployment number of 1.4 million which results in an unrecorded economically inactive gap of 7.2 million which illustrates the true extent of the failure of the last Labour government to manage the potential of the work force during the boom years as illustrated by the fact that 80% of the 2.1 million jobs created under Labour went to foreign workers and therefore did nothing to address the true level of UK unemployment that contained a hidden ticking social security financing time bomb that has exploded as an extra £40 billion annual budget deficit that first the Coalition government and then the Conservative government has been focused on grappling with.

Off course not all of those that are economically inactive can work such as through disablement or long-term illness, nevertheless the real level of unemployment if including those that can work but choose not to work is nearer to 5.5 million than the official level of 1.4 million.

Therefore the Conservative government has been correct in recognising this huge and unsustainable burden on the state by attempting to implement measures such as Universal Credit to force those of working age to actively seek employment rather than remain a burden on the state for their entire working lives and then again during retirement, which would have the dual effect of turning many millions of today's benefit claimers into tomorrows tax payers.

The next article in this series concldues in the impact of Demographics on house prices.

Top 10 AI Stocks to Invest in the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series updates my selection of top 10 AI stocks to invest in to capitalise on the unfolding mega-trend where I have warned to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why the hell did I not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!

Machine Intelligence Investing Mega-trend

So for first Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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