Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
The Hottest Sports Stock Of 2020 - 23rd Sep 19
Stocks Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center - 23rd Sep 19
Stock Market Top Almost Confirmed - 23rd Sep 19
Thomas Cook COLLAPSE! 300,000 Passengers Stranded, Flights Cancelled, Planes Grounded - 23rd Sep 19
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away - 22nd Sep 19
How Russia Seized Control of the Uranium Market - 22nd Sep 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - 21st Sep 19
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? - 21st Sep 19
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? - 21st Sep 19
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? - 21st Sep 19
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Invest in the Esports Revolution

How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019

ElectionOracle / BrExit May 16, 2019 - 06:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Britain's walking dead Labour and Conservative zombie political parties are about to reap the whirlwind for not just failing to deliver on the 2016 EU referendum result of LEAVING the EU on the 29th of March 2019. But having effectively ignored near half the electorate for the past 2 decades, who have increasingly became disengaged from the 2 parties, who in reality have become largely the SAME party!

The first shock to the system was the UKIP victory in the 2014 European Elections by winning 24 seats, and then came LEAVE winning the 2016 EU Referendum. And so voters on the 23rd of May look set to deliver the next BREXIT SHOCK to the political establishment, where most MP's have long since sold out the British people to the bankers and billionaires who effectively run the show the most notable consequence of which was ConLab BAILING OUT the BANKING CRIME SYNDICATE in 2008-2019, the price for which has been borne by ordinary British people resulting in a decade of stagnating earnings for most workers.


So in steps election master Nigel Farage who single handedly delivered the 2016 EU referendum victory! Yes, it was Nigel with a little help from his friends.

If you have any doubts of that then you only need to see what has happened to UKIP since Nigel left, which with its inept leader Batten went running into the arms of right wing nut jobs such as Tommy "Fake Name" Robinson, and Katie "Obsessed with Muslims" Hopkins, and so that which I warned would happen HAS happened, which is that UKIP effectively died in the local elections!

29 Mar 2019 - UK INDEPENDENCE DAY CANCELLED! As Westminster SUBVERTS BREXIT!

The fundamental error that UKIP and similar right wing Brexit campaign groups are making is that by embracing the likes of Tommy Robinson they now solely appeal to die hard right wing Brexiteers, who are just a small minority of those who voted LEAVE. Instead elections are WON at the MARGINS and where the EU referendum is concerned, given its binary choice had a huge margin of 4 million voters, likely none of whom are far right so UKIP and Tommy Robinson have effectively now KILLED the chances of LEAVE winning a Second EU Referendum.

Meanwhile Katie Hopkins recent tweets imply she is desperately trying to worm her way into the BrExit party after partaking in the demise of UKIP.

08 May 2019 - Will Katie Hopkins Stand for BrExit Party in Elections After Helping Destroy UKIP?

The local election results are crystal clear, where UKIP instead of winning 200+ seats actually lost 150 to end the night with just 31 seats! Suffering an even bigger wipeout than the Tories!

Whilst the winners of the election night, the Lib-Dems took their huge success (+700) as an endorsement of their policies without understanding that many voters only voted Lib Dem because the BrExit party did not stand in the local elections, hence a protest vote for the Lib Dems, since when the Lib-Dems have been in state of delirium, expecting to replicate their local election success in the EU election.

The disengaged voters of Britain, (approx half the electorate) are going to deliver another SHOCK to the political elite via Nigel Farage's BrExit party on the 23rd of May, of which there is little doubt!

How Many Seats Will the BrExit Party Win?

My forecast as of the 10th of May is that the BrExit Party could win between 30 to 36 seats, with UKIP winning just 1 or 2 seats, down from 24 as the price paid for embracing the likes of Tommy Robinson.

BrExit Party MEP Seats Forecast in European Elections 23rd May 2019

However, the polls (for what they are worth) have further shifted in the BrExit party's favour, which should translate into several more seats.

1. The starting point for how many seats the BrExit party could win is the performance of UKIP under Nigel Farage that won 24 MEP seats in 2014. That is the minimum that the Brexit Party will win of the 73 seats up for grabs.

2. The 2016 EU referendum resulted in a 52 to 48 split in the vote which would translate into the Brexit Party winning 38 seats which is therefore the maximum.

3. Even though UKIP's vote has collapsed to little more than 4%, still that is 4% that would have won the Brexit Party party maybe 3 or 4 seats. So whilst UKIP may win a seat or 2, they in effect cost the BrExit party 3 or 4 seats, which therefore brings the maximum number of seats down to 35.

4. The Liberal Democrats have successfully fashioned themselves as the party of REMAIN and thus will likely win REMAIN votes from the Tories and Labour.

5. Betting markets

It should not come as much surprise that the BrExit party is the odds on favourite to win the most seats. However, the betting markets do confirm that the Tories are going to get wiped out, with even the Liberal Democrats beating them into fourth place, with Labour 2nd.

What are the Odds for Brexit party to beat the last EU election UKIP 24 seats tally?

Well there may be an opportunity here because Betfair is still giving odds of 1.41 for the Brexit party to get 24 or more seats! Now compare this against my minimum expectations for 30 seats, so it looks like the betting markets are getting Brexit wrong again, albeit nowhere near to the same degree as in 2016, but it could be worth a gamble.

Therefore my forecast for the EU Parliamentary Elections 2019 remains UNCHANGED in that I expect the Brexit Party to win between a minimum of 30 seats and a maximum of 36 with the most probable number of seats that the Brexit party will win being 32. I expect Labour to come 2nd, Lib Dems 3rd and Tories 4th, with UKIP maybe picking up 1 or 2 seats. In fact it is entirely possible that the Brexit Party could win more seats than Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives COMBINED!

This analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

May Analysis Schedule :

  • Stock Market Trend Forecast Update
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • UK Housing market ongoing analysis.
  • Gold / SIlver trend forecast update.
  • China Stock Market SSEC

April Analysis:

Your analyst, watching events through the prism of a multi-decade US - China WAR!

Stock Market US China Trade War Panic

And ensure you are subscribed to my FREE Newsletter to get this analysis in your email in box (only requirement is an email address).

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules