Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Nov 27, 2019 - 06:04 PM GMT

Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.

The latest poll of opinion polls puts the the Tories on 42%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Only one problem, we've been here BEFORE!

DEJA VU ! We have been here EXACTLY BEFORE ! As electoral calculus forecast from the day BEFORE the 2017 June 8th election illustrates that was typical of pollster forecasts.

So as Theresa May would say "Nothing has Changed, Nothing HAS CHANGED" Cut and paste opinion polling, cut and past forecasts, and likely a cut and past outcome! ALL of the opinion pollsters without exception got the 2017 general election very badly wrong, just as they had 2015and 2010! Not to mention the EU referendum when on the night the polls called Yougov called it for REMAIN on 52% to 48% LEAVE.

Therefore the starting point for any forecast for the December 2019 General election would be an analysis of what were the most accirate predictors for the 2017 General election, as lessons learned to applied to this election towards resovling in a most probable outcome forecast.

So these are my 9 key lessons learned from 2017 towardds forecasting the outcome of the December 12th general election.

This resolves into a series of 6 pieces of in-depth analysis the most important of which is what UK house prices forecast for the election result, that has already been completed and first been made available to Patrons who support my work - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Results Forecast

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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