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What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019

ElectionOracle / UK Economy Dec 04, 2019 - 10:54 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

It's the economy stupid! coined by Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992. The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.


Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017

UK General Election Forecast Analysis

The aim of this series of analysis is to further fine tune my core election forecast based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections, house prices momentum that concluded in a forecast of xxx seats first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019.

  1. UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast
  2. Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast
  3. What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019
  4. Marginal Seats, Social Mood and Momentum Election Impact
  5. Opinion Polls and Betting Markets, UK General Election Forecast Conclusion

My last analysis on the Manifestos pushed the seats forecast in favour of the Labour party, putting the Tory seats tally stands at xxx ahead of my final forecast that I aim to complete several days before polling day (12th December).

What the economy Predicts for the UK General Election 1 of 5

  • UK Economy - GDP Growth
  • UK INFLATION - CPI / RPI / REAL
  • UK Unemployment Fake Statistics
  • REAL TERMS AVERAGE EARNINGS
  • UK General Election Tory Seats Projections

UK Economy - GDP Growth

At the top of prospective voters wish lists is a government that can competently manage the UK economy. In which respect the last Labour government failed in spectacular style by delivering the worst recession since WW2! Which Jeremy Corbyn hopes that 10 years on most voters will have forgotten just how catastrophically the last Labour Government ended.

The electorate clearly favour the party of Government to be typically delivering GDP growth of at least 2% per annum if they want to be rewarded with a significant re-election majority.

2015

That was the case in 2015 with the last GDP statistics before voting day coming in at a +2.4% which was sustained during the period of Vote which resulted in the Tories being rewarded with a 'surprise' majority government.

2017

Saw 2% GDP going into the election which implied a smaller majority total than the 330 of 2015.

2019

What about 2019? We'll Poor old Boris Johnson is lumbered with a GDP growth rate of just 1% to Q3 (Sept 2019) AND FALLING! Which implies that the Tories could do WORSE than in 2017!

The rest of this analysis in my Forecasting the UK General Electon series has first been made available to Patrons who support my work:What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019

  • UK Economy - GDP Growth
  • UK INFLATION - CPI / RPI / REAL
  • UK Unemployment Fake Statistics
  • REAL TERMS AVERAGE EARNINGS
  • UK General Election Tory Seats Projections

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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