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Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Dec 09, 2019 - 03:51 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.

However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.


  1. UK House Prices Momentum General Election Forecast
  2. Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast
  3. What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019
  4. Marginal Seats Analysis Election Predictor
  5. Social Mood and Momentum Election Impact
  6. Opinion Polls and Betting Markets, UK General Election Forecast Conclusion.

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Manifesto's Impact on the General Election Forecast

The big question mark is how much of this do the electorate understand as they have gotten used to an economy that just manages to chug along despite Brexit chaos. No boom, but no bust, just sluggish growth. Maybe the electorate have gotten complacent and believe that the past 10 years of so called austerity now gives the Government room to go on a spending binge.

Unfortunately Corbyn's revolution appeals to a good part of 40% of the electorate who would be more than happy to see Labour go on a tax hiking debt fuelled spending binge, dolling out free money left, right and centre. Which means with Labour standing at 30% of the vote then this Manifesto acts as a huge boost for Labour, probably to the tune of a hidden 5% boost! Which translates into Labour winning many more seats than the pollsters are forecasting.

Therefore where the manifesto election bribes are concerned then clearly Labour gains seats at the expense of the Tories to probably in the region of a dozen seats against my core Tory seats forecast of 322 i.e. this analysis projects the Tory seats tally falling to about 310 to 312 seats.

Now compare this against Yougov's 2019 MRP poll forecast that states that the Tories are heading for 68 majority election victory on 359 seats (+44). Based on methodology that the clueless mainstream media constantly refer to as why Yougov accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 General Election. However, the truth is that Yougov's primary and final call was for the Tories to WIN an INCREASED Majority! A case of Yougov publishing multiple contrary forecasts then promote the one that most matches the actual election outcome. Lets see if they do the same again this election!

My next article in this series of lessons learned from 2017 in forecasting the outcome of UK general elections will look at the impact of the current state of the economy on the prospects of the 2019 election, are average earnings rising at enough of a pace to boost Tory electoral prospects or not?

This analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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