Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter


Stock Market Potential Short-term top

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Feb 18, 2020 - 03:51 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian


Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.

SPX Intermediate trend

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at

Potential Short-term top

Point & Figure overview of SPX

Long term trendThe bull market which started in 2009 shows no sign of having run its course.  A long count taken on the long term P&F chart gives us a potential target as high as 4080. P&F does not predict time; only price. (no change)

Intermediate trendIf this develops into an intermediate uptrend, the next projection is 3630.  This projection will not change if a normal pull-back occurs.

Important cycles

I follow only a few cycles which I use in my analysis.  This is complemented by the analysis of Erik Hadik (

The 20-wk cycle is due on about 2/26

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts)

SPX-NYA-IWM weekly charts

I have added the NYSE Composite Index in order to provide a broader perspective to evaluate “the market”.  Since the NYA is the one which contains the most number of stocks, it probably best represents the current market condition.  As you can see, the three indices are not in unison.  It’s too early to draw conclusions, and perhaps it means nothing since IWM has been diverging from SPX forever, which did not prevent the latter from making new all-time highs.  We know that the strongest index is the NDX which influences both the SPX and the DJIA.  So, until we see weakness appear in that index, we should not have any major concern.

SPX daily chart

With the assistance of super strong NDX, the 12-year low drove SPX to a new all-time high.  You will note that neither of the two indexes shown above (NYA and IWM) achieved a new high.  As mentioned above, that in itself may not be a reason for concern, but if you consider the fact that the oscillators at the bottom of the chart are already showing some negative divergence, it means that while technically, we do have a break-out, it is not a very strong break-out  such as the one produced by the NDX which exceeded its previous high by a considerable margin and, in comparison to which the SPX looks much less robust).  But the reason for the divergences may be due to the fact that, as I have noted on the chart, the 20-wk cycle low is fast approaching.

Currently, according to the P&F chart, we could expect a retracement of 40 or 50 points.  A failure to make a new high after that would suggest that something is not as it should be.

SPX hourly chart

The hourly chart of the SPX does not require much sophisticated analysis.  A quick glance shows that a strong start (due to the beginning of a new 2-yr cycle up-phase) carried the index from 3215 to 3348 in just three days before the first profit-taking pull-back set in.  This was followed by another rapid continuation of the bullish trend; but it fizzled quickly into a struggle to keep the trend alive!  The trend line has now been broken and little has been accomplished since, giving the index the appearance of topping and being ready to reverse its trend.  But first, we’ll have to find out if that little push higher on the close goes anywhere.

If a cycle-induced correction occurs, standard Fibonacci retracement targets could take us down to: 3320 (.382), or 3300 (.50), which generally agrees with the P&F projections.

  UUP (dollar ETF)   

The short-term moves in UUP appear to be ruled by a 3-mo cycle which looks ready to roll over.  It may not be something immediate since there is still no trace of a topping formation, although the oscillators do suggest that a top could be near.  If that rhythm persists, it could have some implication for the performance of the following  two items.  

GDX (gold miners)  

GDX has been in a sideways formation for the past two weeks.  This appears to denote a waiting game rather than weakness that should have resulted from breaking the green trend line.  The oscillators also imply a state of readiness to resume the interrupted uptrend.  If so, the P&F chart suggests a quick move ahead to 32.50, followed by an extension to 35.  A market correction added to a UUP retracement would be a positive for GDX.  

PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp)  

A retracement in the dollar, coupled with a short-term correction in SPX could also have bullish implications for PAAS which is making a very bullish-looking consolidation.  After a fast 8-point move from 15.50 to 24.00, PAAS quickly got a .382 retracement out of the way and has been forming a re-accumulation base, since.  A break-out would take it to 28-29 on its next move.   But it must remain above its blue 50-dma.  

BNO (U.S. Brent Oil fund)  

With an oversupply of oil continuing to increase as a result of concerns about the Corona virus, there is no good reason for BNO to reverse its downtrend just yet.  On the other hand, when it makes a significant reversal, it may signal that these concerns are abating and that the worst is over.   


SPX is making a short-term top which could forecast the beginning of a correction into the end of the month and the low of the 20-wk cycle.



For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to, or go to and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules