Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter


Is The Stocks Bull Market Over?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Mar 09, 2020 - 03:18 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian


Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.

SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction underway

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at

Is The Bull Market Over?

Point & Figure overview of SPX
Long term trend: It’s time to consider the possibility that the coronavirus pandemic could bring an end to the bull market. This would become even more likely if the current correction extended below the October 2018 bottom of 2346.

Intermediate trend: Intermediate target minimum: 2620 with potential to 2360. (no change)

Important (known) cycles

I follow only a few reliable cycles in my analysis. This is complemented by the analysis of Erik Hadik (
The 80-d cycle is due on 4/7-6/8; 40-wk 7/14; 9-yr ~7/14.

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts)

SPX- IWM weekly charts:

If IWM truly leads the stock market on the downside – and there is much evidence that it does – then this “correction” is not over. The weekly charts below show that IWM displayed considerable relative weakness to SPX at the recent top, and that it is now expanding this weakness to last week’s low which is already starting to penetrate the lower level of the large congestion pattern that was formed between January and October, while SPX has only penetrated it partially. That, and the position of the weekly oscillators suggests that more weakness should be expected in the weeks ahead.

SPX daily chart
There is now enough data to estimate the path which the intermediate correction is taking. This is drawn on the chart as a steep bearish channel. As of Friday’s close, there was no sign that we have seen the end of the decline of the past three-weeks which retraced ~50% (537points) of the 62-week, 1047-point uptrend which started in Oct. ’18. After finally finding support, SPX retraced in reverse about 50% of the plunge before turning down for another 228-point decline into the last hour on Friday, and then rallying about 80 points into the close.

This super-volatility in price has created a consolidation in a downtrend which could come to an end by next week, followed by a resumption of the selling which would take the index to a new low. On the P&F chart, the congestion pattern looks far more formidable than it does on the bar chart. The hourly chart (which will be analyzed next) is a little more representative of the distribution which is taking place in this area, and a P&F count taken at the 3010 level suggests that the next decline could send the index several hundred points lower.

Uncertainty is behind this selling! We do not know how severe the coronavirus pandemic is going to be, and how long it will take to be controlled and to eventually subside. This means that we have no way of estimating its economic repercussions and this is why investors are dumping their holdings as quickly as they are able. During uncertainty, you sell first and try to figure it out later. Could this situation turn the bull into a full-fledged bear? We have no idea, and by the time we understand the magnitude of the crisis, the Dow Industrials could be down many more thousands points.

Hopefully, objective technical analysis which concerns itself only with supply and demand will guide us through this turbulent period and let us know when the economic danger has passed.

SPX hourly chart
The hourly chart provides a better representation of the consolidation pattern of the last few days. Most of the trading took place above 3010 and this may provide overhead resistance for the rally which started on Friday.

I want to point out the value of P&F charting by comparing the two small bases (A & B) that formed at the low of this consolidation. “B” took seven hours to build and has a base which gives it a maximum count of ~110 points, the equivalent of a potential rally of this magnitude which projects to about 3050. “A” was also built in 7 hours, but ended up with many more reversals and a count of 240 points, which suggested a rally to ~3140 – the actual top of that rally. As I mentioned before, these projections tend to be very accurate. This is why I do not want to minimize the potential for another decline down to the 2600 level when we break below the red horizontal line, but this will have to be confirmed by the market action.

UUP (dollar ETF)

The market weakness combined with a 50-basis point cut in federal funds rate sent UUP sharply lower over the past two weeks. It probably also helped to have the 3-mo cycle in its down phase. The index has now retraced to its former low and the selling may not be over, although it could find some support on the lower channel line which is relatively close. This action has caused the US dollar P&F chart to start looking bearish, with lower counts in store.

GDX (gold miners)

GDX has joined in the volatility parade with a big drop followed by a big rally. The rally was motivated by the sharp decline in the US dollar and the cut in interest rates. GDX has risen to the top of what could become a large consolidation area in which it could trade for a while longer. Oscillators are neutral.

PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp)

PAAS has also rallied after a sharp drop, but more weakly than GDX since it remains below what has become overhead resistance. Remaining in the green channel will be important as it builds a new short-term base.

BNO (U.S. Brent Oil fund)

BNO continues to follow the path of least resistance and shows no sign of being done. There is enough overhead supply to send it back down to the 2016 low of 9.


SPX looks as if it is in the process of completing a pattern of secondary distribution. If so, it could be followed by another significant decline.



For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to, or go to and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules