Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 - 28th Jan 22
Financial Stocks Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities - 28th Jan 22
Stock Market Rushing Headlong - 28th Jan 22
The right way to play Climate Change Investing (not green energy stocks) - 28th Jan 22
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

SPX about to Challenge 8/08 High

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Jul 15, 2020 - 12:18 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian


Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.

Intermediate trend Still in an uptrend since March

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please go to and request a trial.

SPX about to Challenge 8/08 High 

Important Cycle lows

40-wk cycle due 7/20 (inverting?)

 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QChart)

 SPX-TRAN weekly charts

SPX made a new 4-week high last week which seems to be the result of the 37-td cycle making its low last week.  The 40-wk cycle was expected to make a low in about another week, but Eric Hadik ( has suggested that it will make a high instead, this time.  He appears to be correct!  This means that SPX should proceed to at least 3210 before reversing – as long as TRAN remains negatively divergent over the short-term.

The market has been very responsive to positive economic reports in the past few weeks, but these may soon be replaced by the opposite as unemployment benefits run out at the end of this month.


SPX daily chart

The 40-wk cycle was expected to make its next low on ~7/20, but signs that it had peaked and was about to bring a substantial correction never came.  In the past couple of weeks, a periodic analysis by Eric Hadik suggested that, (this time) the 40-wk cycle would be making a high, not a low, in this time frame!

It looks like the right call!  Last Friday, assisted by the 36/37-td cycle which bottomed during the week, the index made a new short-term high with a strong close at 3185 on Friday.  With the short-term projection now pointing to at least 3210, we should expect more upside early next week.

On Tuesday, the hourly indicators gave a sell signal but the daily refused to go along, and the index continued up on its merry way.  Until a sell signal at the hourly level is confirmed at the daily and weekly time frames, we cannot expect a meaningful reversal in the indices.

SPX hourly chart

The 37-td cycle low failed to bring about much of a correction and quickly turned prices up.   It was a little misleading since it was not preceded by some positive divergence in the CCI, but there was no doubt that another short-term buy signal had been issued when it went green.  Early Friday, the index broke out of a consolidation pattern and managed to eke a slightly higher high by the close. 

According to the last short-term congestion pattern which formed at 3140, a minimum advance to 3210 is likely based on the strong count alone but stopping at that level is not guaranteed.  IWM, TRAN and DJIA are all much weaker than SPX, which continues to be driven by NDX.  But QQQ (264.31) may have a valid projection to about 236.  If this turns out to be a high, we can expect SPX to reverse when it has met the 3210-15 target.  If the 37-td cycle cannot push prices beyond that level, it will be a sign that bearish forces are about to assume control. 

UUP (dollar ETF) daily

UUP has made a low in the vicinity of its 3-mo cycle.  If it has the same effect on prices as most previous ones, a longer holding pattern, and perhaps a short-term uptrend should be generated as long as the cycle remains in an up-phase.

GDX (Gold miners ETF) daily

GDX could still push to 40 (which is the ideal short-term target) before correcting. The oscillators have started to look toppy but would have to decline further to suggest that a reversal is taking place. 

PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.) daily 

PAAS continues to make a chart pattern which is identical to that of GDX.  Therefore, the same analysis can be applied.  It too could move slightly higher before correcting.

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

BNO will hold up as long as the market does; but very strong resistance starting at about 12.00 reduces the possibility of improving its price by more than a small margin before pulling back to build a larger base.


Acknowledging Eric Hadik’s analysis that the 40-week cycle is in an inverted mode appears to be the correct step to take.  We do not yet know how much weakness will come into the market after the inversion, but a clear warning that a significant correction may be starting would come from IWM if it cannot hold above 147, and then breaks below 144. 



For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to, or go to and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in