Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market Dow 30k before End of 2020? - 13th Jul 20
Credit Market Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again - 13th Jul 20
Investors Are Going All-In on This Coronavirus Proof Industry - 13th Jul 20
5 Vital Insights That You Can Gain From Instagram Trackers - 13th Jul 20
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

The Once in a Lifetime Stocks Bear Market

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Oct 11, 2008 - 04:07 PM GMT

By: Weekly_Wizards

Stock-Markets Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy wasn't that a perfect reversal Jack? Because the advance decline line wasn't right. Slightly more losers than gainers on the Nas but 2/1 negative on the Nyse. You want 2/1 or 3/1 advancers to decliners. I know today seemed exciting with such a massive reversal but many stocks lagged badly and some were absolutely crushed. You won't see that when we make just the right reversal. The rally occurred for two reasons. Incredibly oversold and massive short covering ahead of the G7 meeting this weekend which will be a meeting to try and find more solutions for the current credit crisis. The shorts are afraid of them coming up with a solution that the market will like.


They figure, hey, I've made a lot of money being short, I can take profits here ahead of the big meeting. If nothing comes out of the meeting, nothing substantial that is, then the market will likely fall right back down early next week. They'll likely take more short positions and more folks will sell their stocks. Just because we got a nice rebound today does not mean the selling is over. I want all the right ingredients before entering back in again. I've learned over time that the market really doesn't change very much. It pretty much does what it's supposed to and that means all the right ingredients will be in place the day the market really bottoms for some time. It'll allow for one gorgeous counter trend rally that we can all enjoy but I feel today did not bring all the necessary ingredients together, sad as that may be. Close, but no cigar.

It's important to understand the depth of this bear market and why it already is different this time. We've had days of over 3000 new lows. We've had a record number of days on the Vix at levels never seen before in history. It's still very high. We've had a record level of losses in a very short period of time in terms of price. We have the worst bull bear percentage in terms of pessimism in history. We basically printed the highest level of the put call ratio you'll ever see. The list goes on and on and is seemingly endless. In other words, with all of these realities upon us daily, the market still can't rally.

It should already have long ago bottomed and a new bull begun but in this case, IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!! No matter what happens from here, it was different this time. There will always be something different in a persons lifetime that happens only once. You will never see anything like this again in your lifetimes but we are living it in the moment and we're all trying to figure out how to play it appropriately. There is also an anxiousness about getting in at the very bottom. We all want to do that. It's virtually impossible because we want to see a rally first that tells us we can nail this thing. This bear market is so bad and so different we have to be super sure before we get in. Even then there's no guarantee but you have to enter when all the signals come together and we will.

I think the roughest part of this bear has been the screaming shills on Cnbc and other financial stations but particularly Cnbc. They march out one money manager after another who has been just crushed and they have been telling you for the past 3000 points that it's fine to enter in the markets. That we have never seen a better buying opportunity. These shills have dragged in many that i know of and now they've gotten hurt for no good reason. These folks know how to sell themselves and can make some very strong cases for why we should all be listening to them. They don't really care about any of you but they'll do anything to get your dollars in to the market to help their cause.

I think, over the past month, that Cnbc has asked at least 100 of these people "has the bottom been seen"? "is it time to go back in"? I mean, how many times can you ask the same stupid question to everyone on your show? Only a few of them have said they weren't sure. If you hear it enough times and you're looking for some guidance, it's easy to follow their advice. After all, they are the experts, right? Yeah right!!!! I hope the majority of you have not been adversely affected by the inappropriate behavior of that station and others. Shameless!!!

There are no rules that say the bottom has to come the way I believe it will. With all the ingredients I have spoken about recently. It may have come today in a way I would never expect. That we have never seen before. This is a once in a lifetime bear and maybe it ends in a once in a lifetime way. I wouldn't bet too much on that. It really would be best to play this game in a way, based on the nastiness of this market, that says the waters can be tested. So what if we miss a little bit first in terms of up side. This bear is one mean beast. It has my full respect. I'm sure it has yours as well. Let's go about our business the right way.

Don't let today bother you. The Dow was up 300 with thirty minutes to go and then reversed down over 400. Also not what you'd see at a real bottom. Maybe we've seen the ultimate lows but that doesn't mean we won't get another strong test down that sets things up the way we'd all prefer.

Peace

Jack

Sign up for a free 30-day trial to Jack Steiman's SwingTradeOnline.

http://www.advicetrade.com/Wizards

© 2002-2008 MPTrader.com, Weekly Wizards an AdviceTrade publication.  All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Weekly Wizards Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules