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Silver Long-term Trend Analysis

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021 Nov 28, 2021 - 04:28 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

Silver during the post pandemic gold rush managed to break above resistance at $21 that propelled the price 50% higher to just over $30 which the price is now correcting from, and silver being silver the trends tend to be deep and messy, hence why Silver has just about retraced the whole of the breakout move.


(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

Nevertheless, the break out was decisive and thus the subsequent price action should be seen as being corrective even if the Silver price falls back below the breakout point of $21,

Moving Average - For the Silver bull to resume it needs to cross it's 200day moving average which is at a distant $25.5, but falling each day.

Support - Silver has huge amount of support in the zone $19 to $18 which should contain any decline into this price zone. Technically one would expect a bounce at $19, but Silver does not care much for nice and neat technical's so a spike down to $18 is probable.

Elliott Wave - The simplest pattern resolves to Silver being in a Wave 4 correction that is supported by the sub wave structure of ABC waves. Which implies that when the dust settles the Silver bull is going to make another run for higher highs beyond $30. And if Silver replicated the near 50% advance off $21 then that would imply $45!

MACD - MACD has worked out of it's overbought state. I hear the Wall street Bets crowd attempted something with Silver early in the year but got their fingers burnt and likely have largely fled the scene by now. In fact the MACD implies that downside is limited.

Seasonal Pattern - September tends to be weak, October strong, November weak, with December and January very strong, with Feb and March weak, followed by a bull run into the end of May. So the seasonally weakest period for Silver should be over and so Silver price should overall be heading higher into May 2022.

Pattern Recognition - A weak June, July, August and September implies the bear market could continue into Feb 2022 i.e. weakness continuing for another 5 months! Followed by a bull run into the end of May.

The rest of this extensive analysis that maps out a trend of the Silver Price into Mid 2022 has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022, CHINOBLE! AI Stocks Buying Plan

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  • Gold / Silver Ratio
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  • My Next Analysis

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Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
The China Syndrome
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally
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INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
How Stagflation Effects Stocks
INTEL Bargain - 15.5% Discount Sale
Why Intel stock price dropped 15%?
FACEBOOK - 10% DIscount
IBM - 20% Discount
Amazon - 5% Discount
APPLE 4% Discount
AMD $136 on Route to $200
TSMC - $117
Microsoft $336
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Heads Up on NEW Potential Tech Stocks
AI Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels
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High Risk Stocks Brief
Crypto's 20% Discount Event
Bitcoin Trend
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And access to why inflation will be far from transitory, batten down the hatches for what's to come-

Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation

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So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My analysis schedule includes:

  • UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 15% done
  • How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

  • US Dollar and British Pound analysis
  • Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your AI data preprocessing analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2021 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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