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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold and Silver 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, March 08, 2021

Gold Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Rally Targeting $2300+, But When Will it Start? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of our readers’ favorite tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system.  This tool maps out technical and price patterns into an array of similar setups using historical data, then applies that data to current and future price bars.  Using the ADL predictive Modeling tool, we can see into the future based on historical technical analysis that maps statistically relevant price activity and shows us the highest probability outcomes. 

Monthly ADL Gold Predictions

In this research article, we’re going to focus on Gold and how current price action suggests a bottom is likely near the $1720 level.  The YELLOW price channels on this Monthly Gold chart highlight exactly where we believe support is located for Gold.  If this $1700 price level is breached to the downside, then the previous lows, near $1400, are the next support level for Gold.

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Commodities

Monday, March 08, 2021

Gold: Crisis or Opportunity? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, delves into gold's recent price movements and discusses whether now is a good time to buy gold and gold stocks.

People…relax. It's a correction.

If you're a serious gold investor, then I sympathize.

If you're freaking out, then this is not for you. If you're anxious, then you need to check your premises.

After all, what's changed since gold reached a new all-time nominal high over $2,000 last August?

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Commodities

Sunday, March 07, 2021

So, Where Is Gold's Corrective Upswing? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Can the precious metals move lower before a short-term correction, and after correcting, will they continue their medium-term downtrend?

Gold & silver reversed yesterday (Mar. 2) and the GDX rallied after bottoming right in my previous target area, but it’s still unclear if the bottom is in.

Let’s check what’s happening in the charts.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 07, 2021

Gold Continues Declines on Bond Yield Jitters / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The economy seems to be recovering, while bond yields are increasing again, sending gold prices down.

Not good. Gold bulls can be truly upset. The yellow metal continued its bearish trend last week. As the chart below shows, the price of gold has declined from $1,807 on Monday (Feb. 22) to $1,743 on Friday (Feb. 26).
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Commodities

Friday, March 05, 2021

After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

After gold came down hard last week, it might be in a for a short pause and corrective upswing. What will the yellow metal’s next chapter bring for the miners? How high can they go if gold rallies from here?

As gold recently moved very close to my approximate target of $1,700, the senior miners (GDX) ended Friday’s (Feb. 26) session $0.13 above my initial downside target of $31 . And while an eventual flush to the $23 to $24 range (or lower) remains on the table, a corrective upswing could be next in line.

To explain, if gold can bounce off of the $1,670 to $1,700 range, the GDX ETF will likely follow suit. Thus, while the miners are likely to move drastically lower over the medium-term, a decline of nearly 11% over the last two weeks has given way to short-term oversold conditions.
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Commodities

Tuesday, March 02, 2021

Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

Gold has been taking a beating in recent weeks, the sell-off prompted by rising bond yields which are taking the shine off the yellow metal. Higher interest rates diminish the argument for owning gold, which offers no yield.

On Wednesday, Feb. 24, spot gold dropped to $1,784.60 an ounce, just shy of $1,783.10 reached on Feb. 21, its lowest since July, 2020. The gold price climbed $342, or 22% last year, on pandemic fears, a low dollar and moribund bond yields, which for most of the year ran under 1%.

Gold has been pressured by higher yields on US Treasuries, most significantly the benchmark 10-year note, which is closing in on 1.4% (currently 1.37%), an increase of 44 basis points since the start of the year. The last time the 10-year was this high, was in February 2020, just before the start of the pandemic.

Kitco reported on Wednesday that a booming US housing market, fueled by low mortgage rates, is driving bond yields higher, after the Commerce Department showed new home sales rising 4.3%. The seasonally adjusted 923,000 units sold in January trounced consensus forecasts calling for 853,000 units to sell.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 02, 2021

Silver Is Close To Something Big / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Hubert_Moolman

There is a sense that we are close to a significant move in silver. The current season since August 2020 till now, is shaping up in a similar manner to the season of August 2019 to February/March 2020.

Silver as well as the stock market peaked in February 2020, and crashed significantly into March.

Below, is a chart of silver (top) and the Dow (bottom):

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Commodities

Friday, February 26, 2021

FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent FOMC minutes are hawkish and negative for the price of gold, but the Fed will remain generally dovish for some time.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published minutes from its last meeting in January . They reveal that Fed officials became more optimistic about the economy than they were in December. The main reasons behind the more upbeat economic projection were the progress in vaccinations, the government’s stimulus provided by the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2021, and the expectations of an additional sizable tranche of fiscal support in the pipeline:

Most participants expected that the stimulus provided by the passage of the CAA in December, the likelihood of additional fiscal support, and anticipated continued progress in vaccinations would lead to a sizable boost in economic activity.

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Commodities

Friday, February 26, 2021

Kiss of Life for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Submissions

The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are countless, and the riskier part of the credit market spectrum agrees. As money flows from the Tresury markets, and sizable cash balances are sitting on many a balance sheet, there is plenty of fuel to power the S&P 500 advance.

With volatility in the tame low 20s and the put/call ratio again moving down, the bears‘ prospects are bleak. As I wrote last week, their time is running out, and a new stock market upleg approaches. It‘s the bond market that‘s under pressure, with both investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries suffering in the accelerated decline.

Gold is the most affected, as the sensitivity of its reaction to the rising long-tern yields, has picked up very noticeably. How long before these draw both the Fed‘s attention and action – what will we learn from Powell‘s testimony on Tue and Wed? And when will the much awaited stimulus finally arrive, and force repricing beyond the metals markets?

Before that, gold remains on razor‘s edge, while silver leads and platinum flies for all the green hydrogen promise. The dollar has given back on Thu and Fri what it gained two days before, and remains in its bear market. Not even rising yields were able to generate much demand for the world reserve currency. Its lower prices stand to help gold thanks to the historically prevailing negative correlation, counterbalancing the Treasury yields pressure.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 25, 2021

What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Gold continues to wallow near its recent low price level, near $1765.  Silver has continued to trend moderately higher – but still has not broken out to the upside.  Many analysts have continued to estimate when and how metals will begin the next wave higher.  My research team and I believe we’ve found some answers to these questions and want to share our research.

Silver Explodes In Late-Stage Excess Rallies

The first thing we want to highlight is that Silver tends to rally excessively in the later stages of any precious metals rally.  For example, in mid-2010, Silver began an incredible upside price rally after Gold rallied from $720 (October 2008) to $1265 (June 2010).  This suggests that the price relationship between Gold and Silver “dislocated” in the early stage breakdown of the financial markets near the peak of the 2008-09 Housing Crisis Peak.  Then, in late 2010, Silver began to move dramatically higher while Gold continued to push an additional 80%+ higher.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Metals markets continue to diverge this week, with copper and platinum adding to recent breakout gains while gold struggles to find footing.

During this week’s selloff, gold revisited its lows from last November. A support level exists at $1,750, but momentum selling could take prices down a bit further before technical gauges flash deeply oversold signals.

Turning to silver, the white metal continues to show relative strength versus gold, although prices haven’t actually moved much over the past few trading days.

Despite lackluster returns in most of the precious metals so far in 2021, inflation pressures are pointing upward.  On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that U.S. wholesale prices surged by 1.3% in January.  

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Submissions

Stocks are predictably staging a continued recovery from the mostly sideways correction – a shallow one not strong enough to break the bulls‘ back. Credit markets are largely behaving – with the exception of long-term Treasuries, which I see as highly likely to draw the Fed‘s attention – just as I discussed in detail yesterday.

The S&P 500 keeps doing fine, and so does my open position there – in the black again. On one hand, volatility remains low regardless of intraday attempts to rise, on the other hand, the put/call ratio has risen quite high yesterday – it‘s as if the traders are expecting a shoe to drop, similarly to the end of Jan. Will it, is there any on the horizon?

Treasuries at the long-end are falling like a stone, and those on the short end (3-months) are seeing higher prices in 2021. The bond market is clearly under pressure, and exerting influence primarily upon precious metals (and commodities such as oil, which are experiencing a down day today, after quite a string of foreseeable gains).

The bearish sentiment in gold and miners is running rampant, and it‘s been only yesterday when I answered a question on ominous head and shoulders patterns in the making, at my own site.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Under the Biden administration the economy could overheat, thereby increasing inflation and the price of gold.

In January, Biden unveiled his plan for stimulating the economy, which is struggling as the epidemic in the U.S. continues to unfold. Pundits welcomed the bold proposal of spending almost $2 trillion. Some expenditures, especially on vaccines and healthcare, sound pretty reasonable. However, $1.9 trillion is a lot of money! And a lot of federal debt , as the stimulus would be debt-funded!

So, there is a risk that Biden’s package would overheat the economy and increase inflation . Surprisingly, even some mainstream economists who support the deficit spending, notice this possibility. For instance, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, said that Biden’s stimulus could lead the economy to overheat, and that the conventional wisdom is underestimating the risks of hitting capacity. Although he doesn’t oppose the idea of another stimulus, Summers noted that “if we get Covid behind us, we will have an economy that is on fire”.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Precious Metals Under Seige? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Rambus_Chartology

Lets start with the daily bar combo chart for the PM complex which shows the August trading range still under construction making lower lows and lower highs for the most part.

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Commodities

Monday, February 22, 2021

Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With the yellow metal just posting its lowest close since June and a bearish pattern forming, how vulnerable is gold to a further decline?

Gold and mining stocks just broke to new yearly lows – as I warned you in my previous analyses. And that’s only the beginning.

Let’s jump right into the charts, starting with gold.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately.  The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?

Gold Support Near $1765 May Become A New Launchpad

My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level.  As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, delves into the movement among some companies to hold Bitcoin and gold rather than cash.

Imagine your favorite company getting sued for holding too much cash.

I know, that's a big statement. But hear me out.

Corporations, pension funds and insurance companies—anyone responsible to stakeholders—could one day face class action lawsuits if they don't diversify into other reserves assets. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, especially in today's litigious-happy world.

Michael Saylor famously bought bitcoin last year to diversify and protect the buying power of MicroStrategy's surplus cash…half a billion dollars' worth. Elon Musk recently did the same for Tesla, plowing $1.5 billion into bitcoin. Before either of these was Overtstock.com. Remember them?

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Commodities

Friday, February 19, 2021

Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Palladium was manipulated for years. It had the largest short position relative to its size, while physical demand rose inversely to decreasing supply.

In 2018, demand became so large that it overwhelmed the shorts.

Physical palladium could not meet the market's needs and prices exploded. Shorts eventually decreased their positions until they got to a more sustainable level.

For many years, the platinum/palladium ratio, shown on proprietary charts, averaged 2.4 to 1 in favor of platinum, stretched as high as 5:1 in 2009, but then collapsed for a decade into 2020, to where 1 ounce of palladium would buy 5 ounces of platinum!

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Commodities

Friday, February 19, 2021

Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold is dodging bullets, as it comes increasingly under fire from rising U.S. interest rates and a USD that is poised to surge.

Catching unsuspecting traders in yet another bull trap , gold’s early-week strength quickly faded. And with investors unwilling to vouch for the yellow metal for more than a few days, the rush-to-exit mentality highlights a short-term vexation that’s unlikely to subside.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The effort to squeeze silver shorts may appear to have fizzled, but naked short sellers are as vulnerable as ever.

Silver futures prices are entering backwardation. That is a bad omen for anyone betting on lower silver prices.

Backwardation happens very rarely, but this condition has been a reliable indicator that higher prices are on the way each time it has occurred over the past decade.

In the futures market, silver prices generally go up based on how far away the delivery month is. Most of the time, prices for future delivery are higher than today’s spot price, i.e., the price for delivery now. There is a cost of carry – primarily driven by storage fees and opportunity cost of funds – when it comes to holding physical silver bars.

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