Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Great Stocks Bear Market Rally

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Dec 10, 2008 - 01:43 PM GMT

By: David_Shvartsman

Stock-Markets So, the question before us today is: "are we due for a bear market rally in shares?".

Let me say up front that I have no idea whether or not the greatly expected bear market rally will materialize anytime soon.


Having said that, let's hear from some gentlemen who have recently expressed their views on this topic publicly: investors Barton Biggs and Marc Faber .

Hedge fund manager and author, Barton Biggs recently offered his opinion in a Financial Times comment piece entitled, "The mother of bear market rallies is on the horizon" .

Noting at the outset that he had misjudged the "severity and duration of this panic", Biggs goes on to say that stock valuations are cheap and that global markets have been battered and "are deeply oversold". When combining these factors with the pervasive negative sentiment, he finds that we may soon see the setup for a significant bear market rally.

Here's an excerpt from Biggs' piece :

"The systematic work that we do on measuring sentiment (and we monitor about 20 indicators for the US and a dozen or so for other equity markets) show very extreme and in many cases record levels of bearishness. Obviously not every indicator is at an all-time high, and in some the history is short - but the message is powerful.

Furthermore, there is compelling evidence that investors, hedge funds, pension and mutual funds, and the public are not just talking bearish, they have raised astounding amounts of cash. I am chastened by the fact that all the data we look at are from the past 40 years, which was really just one great magnificent secular bull market of wealth creation marked by periodic bears that were opportunities to buy. No one knows what levels of pessimism were necessary to spawn the 40 per cent 1929 rally during a massive secular bear market.

Nevertheless, I've never seen capitulation and despair like this. We must be pretty close to maximum bearishness."

Don't get too excited by Biggs' optimism; he notes that he is still hesitant to commit himself until he sees further signs of a bottom. However, for those waiting in the wings, looking for a more optimistic view for the stock markets, Biggs' note might provide some food for thought.

Onto our second guest forecaster, Marc Faber. Whereas Biggs is rather optimistic that the worst case scenarios for the global economy will not pan out, on this point Faber does not shy away from this reputation as "Dr. Doom".

He says that the global economy is going into a severe recession, with emerging market economies being hit the hardest. In fact, during a recent Bloomberg TV interview , Marc said that the global economy "is imploding". He expanded upon these points in a seperate Bloomberg radio interview .

In spite of this gloomy outlook, Faber says that a near-term rally is quite possible for shares, given their recent sharp declines. However, he cautions that traders will probably have to be alert and exit their positions in stocks and index futures by early next year.

In fact, Faber's view of the next few months may also turn out to be a preview of the next decade for traders and investors. Marc recently told CNBC that we are now in "a traders' market", and that Warren Buffett's buy-and-hold approach to investing is dead for the next 10 years.

What lessons have you learned from this latest bear market in shares? Are you taking the view of a trader, or that of a long-term investor in shares?

Maybe this market will require or reward some synthesis of the two disciplines (trading/speculating vs. investing). What do you think?

Related articles and posts :

1. Responding to bear market conditions - Finance Trends Matter.

2. "Faber: Buffett buy-and-hold method dead" - MoneyNews.

3. Bear market rallies since October 2007 - Big Picture.

4. "Where have all your savings gone?" - The Economist.

By David Shvartsman

http://financetrends.blogspot.com

Examining the big picture trends that drive investment markets and shape our world

Disclaimer - The opinion above is that of the author and is not meant to be taken as investment advice by any readers. Readers should always conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

David Shvartsman Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in