Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van - Jeff_Berwick
8.Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis - B.R. Hollister
10.Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood - Abalgorithm
Last 7 days
How Inflation Reduces The Real Value Of Social Security Net Of Medicare Premiums - 19th Feb 18
Could Stellar Lumens be a Challenger to Bitcoin for International Payments? - 19th Feb 18
US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken - 19th Feb 18
How To Trade Gold Stocks with Momentum - 19th Feb 18
Is a New Gold Bull Market on the Horizon? - 19th Feb 18
Stock Market Decision Point! - 19th Feb 18
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 - 18th Feb 18
Get on Top Of Debt Before It Gets on Top of You - 18th Feb 18
Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? - 18th Feb 18
5 Reasons Why Commodities Are the Investment Place to be in 2018 - 18th Feb 18
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On - 17th Feb 18
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? - 17th Feb 18
Free 1000 Youtube Subscribers Services - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test - 17th Feb 18
How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top - 16th Feb 18
Bitcoin as Poison - 16th Feb 18
GDX Gold ETF Weathers Stock Market Selloff - 16th Feb 18
Casino Statistics and Demographics - 16th Feb 18
IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? - 16th Feb 18
Huge SMIGGLE Shopping HAUL, Pencil Cases, Drinks Bottles, Back Packs, Toys.... - 16th Feb 18
Tesla Cash Keeps Burning at $320 a Share - 15th Feb 18
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets - 15th Feb 18
Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near - 15th Feb 18
Stock Market Out on a Limb... - 15th Feb 18
Things Only a True Friend Would Say About Gold - 14th Feb 18
Global Debt Crisis II Cometh - 14th Feb 18
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market is Getting Scary... - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! - 13th Feb 18
Gold and Silver Long-term Buy, Short-term Sell Signal - 13th Feb 18
SPX Futures Are Sliding... - 13th Feb 18
Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin - 13th Feb 18
Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 - 13th Feb 18
Gold Stocks Groundhog Week - 13th Feb 18
Platinum Looks Poised for Surprising Gains This Year - 12th Feb 18
Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume - 12th Feb 18
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction - 12th Feb 18
February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? - 12th Feb 18
How To Profit From The Bitcoin Bloodbath - 12th Feb 18
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  - 12th Feb 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 12th Feb 18
What Does the Stock Market Decline Mean for Gold - 12th Feb 18
Addicted to SMIGGLE Mega Review, Pencil Cases, Stationary, Back Packs, Drinking Bottles, Toys... - 12th Feb 18
Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - 11th Feb 18
The Fed’s Impossible Choice, In Three Charts - 11th Feb 18
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop - 11th Feb 18
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” - 11th Feb 18
How to Grow Tomatoes From Seeds, Homegrown Organic Money Saving Gardening - 11th Feb 18
Youtube KILLS ALL Small Channels with New DeMonetization Rules - 11th Feb 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Financial Markets Analysis - Stocks Bear Market Near Bottom?

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Mar 08, 2009 - 09:37 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStock Markets fell to fresh bear market lows with the Dow Jones Index now fulfilling the original target for the bear market low of 6,600 as per the analysis of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below graph.


Februarys updated analysis confirmed that given the rate of decent the Dow is increasingly targeting overshoot towards 5,700 to 6000 by July 2009. However this trend remains a secondary overshoot target to the original expectations. Having now fulfilled the primary target of 6,600 the next phase of the strategy is therefore towards accumulating on buy price triggers in advance of what I consider will become a multi-year bull market, which appears contrary to many analysts such as Pretcher and Schiff that continue to see fresh bear market lows during 2010, regardless of any rally. The bear market low targets range anywhere from 5000 all the way down to 400, depending on how bearish the analyst is, as there do remain convincing arguments for the continuation of the bear market when one considers the accepted assumption that stock prices will revert to below the mean in terms of price to earnings which continue to contract.

However, Bear Market bottoms and initial uptrend's are not born out of good news, that ONLY becomes apparent many, many months AFTER the event.

In Summary - My Primary target for a bear market bottom has been fulfilled, the secondary overshoot targets a possible trend towards 5,700 to 6000 with a continuing time window targeting mid 2009. The next phase for the stock market forecast for 2009 is for stocks to enter a multi-year bull market amidst prevailing gloom and doom economic data and press headlines that initially targets a 30% rally form the lows into December 2009, i.e. as per the original analysis of 20th Jan 09.

Your analyst positioning for a bullish spike higher.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week

1. Why Watching CNBC Could Destroy Your Portfolio

By: Nadeem_Walayat

August 2007 - Dow Jones 13,000 - What did the CNBC Talking Heads Recommend Investors Should do ?

Read Article

2. The Worst Global Crisis of All Time

By: Larry Edelson

No, I'm not talking about the global financial crisis. Nor am I talking about the AIG disaster … Citibank's failure … the collapse of GM or Ford. I'm not even referring to the Dow's recent plunge to below 7,000.

Read Article

3. Beginning Now: The Panic Phase of the Economic Collapse

By: Martin Weiss

Just as the Obama Administration launches a triple tirade of new initiatives — a record stimulus package, a bigger round of rescues, and the largest deficit financing of all time …

Just as the Treasury Department doubles down on its bailouts for sinking giants — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, General Motors, Chrysler, and Citigroup …

Read Article

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

 

4. The End of the Consumer Credit Empire: Stairway to Retail Heaven

By: James_Quinn

She was buying the stairway to heaven using her home equity line, but now that she is underwater on her mortgage she tried to pay using her Amex card, but her credit score had dropped to 600 and they cut her credit line in half. The stairway to heaven isn't as easy to achieve as it used to be. Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi feel bad for the lady. They are going to borrow against your children's future tax dollars and give them to the lady, so she can buy that stairway to heaven. By making this deal with the devil, the corrupt politicians running this country have put us on an escalator to hell. A straight shooting blunt President from last century described what would destroy America .

Read Article

5. Subprime Eastern Europe to Bankrupt Western European Banks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The long ticking time bomb of Eastern European debt is starting to explode with an even greater inevitability as that of subprime mortgages exploding in the United States, as at least in the United States the determining factor of whether or not the mortgage market would go bust is the state of the US housing market.

Read Article

6. Deflationary Depression or Hyperinflation?

By: Brian_Bloom

In summary, the following analysis / argument concludes that Depression is a far more likely outcome than Hyperinflation.

The mathematics of inflation is as follows:

Read Article

7. After the Crash the Next Great Bubble Boom (Part I)

By: Oxbury_Research

“A devastating crash occurs between 2010 and 2012, which ushers in a thirteen-year bear market into 2022” -Harry Dent Jr. This quote is taken directly from the back of Harry S. Dent Jr.'s bestselling book, The Next Great Bubble Boom . Mr. Dent was a pioneer in the study demographics and their relation to the stock market. Before we dive into certain specifics and reasoning behind what is shaping up to be an ominous prediction, it is important to sift out why this renowned author came to such conclusions in the first place and if anything has changed since the book was published in 2004.

Read Article

8. Financial and Economic Crisis Entering the Panic Phase

By: Jim_Willie_CB

A couple of bright friends reported to me some overriding themes at the PDAC gathering in Toronto last weekend. Apparently, some surprise came to them. They mentioned that more than a few analysts, writers, and speakers still do not get it. They actually believe the situation with the US Economy and US banking system has begun to stabilize. That is like saying a college basketball player has Michael Jordan under control, or a farmer has his Clydesdale horse under control, or a misguided King can call back the ocean tide, or a man has a hurricane under control as he clings to a roof rafter.

Read Article

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

 

9. Systemic Failure of Capitalism and the Collapse of the Real Economy

By: Stephen_Lendman

After the 1929 October 24, 28 and 29 market crash, the weekly entertainment industry magazine Variety (on October 30) published its most famous ever headline: "Wall Street Lays an Egg." In October 2008, history repeated, and since the October 2007 peak, equity prices plunged over 50% after the Dow and S & P (in February) posted their second worst ever monthly percentage declines - topped only in 1933 during the depths of the Great Depression. So far, the current market drop matches its 1929 - 1932 pace, and like then, shows no signs of abating.

Read Article

10. Bank of England Ignites Quantitative Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economic Shock and Awe as Interest Rates are cut to 0.5% coupled with £75 Billion conjured out of thin air by Mervyn King Waving his " Central Bank Magic Wand ". The government through what should be more accurately termed as " Quantitative Inflation " than " Quantative Easing " sanctioned £75 billion in the initial print run which will have a multiplier effect through fractional reserve banking and leverage of anywhere from between X10 to X20 the amount depending on how it filters through the economy

Read Article

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules