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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Will the Stocks Bear Market Continue to Reign?

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Mar 15, 2009 - 09:10 PM GMT

By: Regent_Markets

Stock-Markets There were genuine signs of emerging optimism in stock markets last week. Confidence has been largely absent so far in 2009, with every attempted rally
squashed before it really had chance to get going. There is a growing sense that this time round things are different, and this belief will only grow further, if markets can survive the next week or so without dropping too far below last Thursday’s low. The next few weeks could be a real test. If markets are able to maintain these levels without giving up too much ground, then more buyers might come out of hiding and the recovery could gain momentum.


Last week, General Electric had its credit rating cut, but this has been
largely telegraphed over the last few months, and the cut appears to be less
than initially feared. This coupled with signs of stability in US retail
sales pushed markets higher.

The euro enjoyed a strong week against the dollar and pound, pushing sterling
to its lowest levels since 2008. UK gilts endured a volatile week as the Bank
of England turned on the printing press. Currency markets are taking the
view that UK PLC has a rather large hole it its pocket, a hole which is
getting larger as the global crisis develops. The weak pound isn’t bad news
for all British companies though, with BP benefitting from a stronger dollar
and higher oil prices, and rising strongly. Oil closed the trading week with
a slight gain, but this could all change with Sunday’s OPEC meeting.

Financials enjoyed a positive week, with the insurer Standard life and HSBC
among the standout performers. One of the catalysts was the Citigroup profit
outlook, which indicated that the company is set for its best quarter since
it last made a profit in 2007. The stock rose 75% on the news, and helped
push up other financials in the process. Despite last week’s rally, Citigroup
is still in the realms of being a penny stock.

Whether this turns out to be a bear market rally, or a true reversal point,
remains to be seen. Since October 2007 there have been eight 5% plus days on
the S&P 500. Excluding Tuesday’s blast off, in all the previous instances the
rallies were short lived, and the sellers took control once more. Last week
the IMF warned of a great recession, and Meredith Whitney sage of the credit
crunch, is warning that credit cards will be the next financial crisis to
break.

This week’s highlights include the release of the last MPC meeting minutes on
Wednesday morning, and the FOMC statement in the evening. There is also a
raft of inflation data with US PPI on Tuesday, and CPI on Thursday. Fed
chairman Ben Bernanke, finishes off the trading week with a speech on Friday
afternoon.

While it is unlikely that the bears have been forced into hibernation for
good, last week’s rally was a promising change of sentiment.

A no touch trade predicting that the S&P 500 won’t revisit the lows of 660 in
the next 60 days could return 44% at BetOnMarkets.

By Mike Wright
Tel: +448003762737
Email: editor@my.regentmarkets.com
Url: Betonmarkets.com & Betonmarkets.co.uk

About Regent Markets Group:   Regent Markets is the world's leading fixed odds financial trading group. Through its main multi-awarding winning websites, BetOnMarkets.com and BetOnMarkets.co.uk, it has established itself as the leading global provider of a unique, powerful way to trade the world's major financial markets. The number, length and variety of trades available to our clients exists nowhere else in the world.   editor@my.regentmarkets.com Tel  (+44) 08000 326 279

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

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