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Financial Markets Analysis - Stocks Bear Market Near Bottom?

News_Letter / Stocks Bear Market Mar 16, 2009 - 06:39 AM GMT

By: NewsLetter

News_Letter March 8th , 2009 Issue #19 Vol. 3


The Market Oracle Newsletter
March 8th , 2009            Issue #19 Vol. 3

Commodities Currencies Economics Housing Market Interest Rates Education Personal Finance Stocks / Financials Best Analysis

Financial Markets Analysis - Stocks Bear Market Near Bottom?

Dear Reader,

Stock Markets fell to fresh bear market lows with the Dow Jones Index now fulfilling the original target for the bear market low of 6,600 as per the analysis of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below graph.

Februarys updated analysis confirmed that given the rate of decent the Dow is increasingly targeting overshoot towards 5,700 to 6000 by July 2009. However this trend remains a secondary overshoot target to the original expectations. Having now fulfilled the primary target of 6,600 the next phase of the strategy is therefore towards accumulating on buy price triggers in advance of what I consider will become a multi-year bull market, which appears contrary to many analysts such as Pretcher and Schiff that continue to see fresh bear market lows during 2010, regardless of any rally. The bear market low targets range anywhere from 5000 all the way down to 400, depending on how bearish the analyst is, as there do remain convincing arguments for the continuation of the bear market when one considers the accepted assumption that stock prices will revert to below the mean in terms of price to earnings which continue to contract.

However, Bear Market bottoms and initial uptrend's are not born out of good news, that ONLY becomes apparent many, many months AFTER the event.

In Summary - My Primary target for a bear market bottom has now been fulfilled, the secondary overshoot targets a possible trend towards 5,700 to 6000 with a continuing time window targeting mid 2009. The next phase for the stock market forecast for 2009 is for stocks to enter a multi-year bull market amidst prevailing gloom and doom economic data and press headlines that initially targets a 30% rally form the lows into December 2009, i.e. as per the original analysis of 20th Jan 09.

Your analyst positioning for a bullish spike higher.

Nadeem Walayat

Editor, The Market Oracle
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

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Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week

1. Why Watching CNBC Could Destroy Your Portfolio

By: Nadeem_Walayat

August 2007 - Dow Jones 13,000 - What did the CNBC Talking Heads Recommend Investors Should do ?

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2. The Worst Global Crisis of All Time

By: Larry Edelson

No, I'm not talking about the global financial crisis. Nor am I talking about the AIG disaster … Citibank's failure … the collapse of GM or Ford. I'm not even referring to the Dow's recent plunge to below 7,000.

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3. Beginning Now: The Panic Phase of the Economic Collapse

By: Martin Weiss

Just as the Obama Administration launches a triple tirade of new initiatives — a record stimulus package, a bigger round of rescues, and the largest deficit financing of all time …

Just as the Treasury Department doubles down on its bailouts for sinking giants — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, General Motors, Chrysler, and Citigroup …

Read Article

Download your 60-page Deflation Survival Guide now

4. The End of the Consumer Credit Empire: Stairway to Retail Heaven

By: James_Quinn

She was buying the stairway to heaven using her home equity line, but now that she is underwater on her mortgage she tried to pay using her Amex card, but her credit score had dropped to 600 and they cut her credit line in half. The stairway to heaven isn't as easy to achieve as it used to be. Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi feel bad for the lady. They are going to borrow against your children's future tax dollars and give them to the lady, so she can buy that stairway to heaven. By making this deal with the devil, the corrupt politicians running this country have put us on an escalator to hell. A straight shooting blunt President from last century described what would destroy America .

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5. Subprime Eastern Europe to Bankrupt Western European Banks

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The long ticking time bomb of Eastern European debt is starting to explode with an even greater inevitability as that of subprime mortgages exploding in the United States, as at least in the United States the determining factor of whether or not the mortgage market would go bust is the state of the US housing market.

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6. Deflationary Depression or Hyperinflation?

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In summary, the following analysis / argument concludes that Depression is a far more likely outcome than Hyperinflation.

The mathematics of inflation is as follows:

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7. After the Crash the Next Great Bubble Boom (Part I)

By: Oxbury_Research

“A devastating crash occurs between 2010 and 2012, which ushers in a thirteen-year bear market into 2022” -Harry Dent Jr. This quote is taken directly from the back of Harry S. Dent Jr.'s bestselling book, The Next Great Bubble Boom . Mr. Dent was a pioneer in the study demographics and their relation to the stock market. Before we dive into certain specifics and reasoning behind what is shaping up to be an ominous prediction, it is important to sift out why this renowned author came to such conclusions in the first place and if anything has changed since the book was published in 2004.

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8. Financial and Economic Crisis Entering the Panic Phase

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A couple of bright friends reported to me some overriding themes at the PDAC gathering in Toronto last weekend. Apparently, some surprise came to them. They mentioned that more than a few analysts, writers, and speakers still do not get it. They actually believe the situation with the US Economy and US banking system has begun to stabilize. That is like saying a college basketball player has Michael Jordan under control, or a farmer has his Clydesdale horse under control, or a misguided King can call back the ocean tide, or a man has a hurricane under control as he clings to a roof rafter.

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9. Systemic Failure of Capitalism and the Collapse of the Real Economy

By: Stephen_Lendman

After the 1929 October 24, 28 and 29 market crash, the weekly entertainment industry magazine Variety (on October 30) published its most famous ever headline: "Wall Street Lays an Egg." In October 2008, history repeated, and since the October 2007 peak, equity prices plunged over 50% after the Dow and S & P (in February) posted their second worst ever monthly percentage declines - topped only in 1933 during the depths of the Great Depression. So far, the current market drop matches its 1929 - 1932 pace, and like then, shows no signs of abating.

Read Article

10. Bank of England Ignites Quantitative Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economic Shock and Awe as Interest Rates are cut to 0.5% coupled with £75 Billion conjured out of thin air by Mervyn King Waving his " Central Bank Magic Wand ". The government through what should be more accurately termed as " Quantitative Inflation " than " Quantative Easing " sanctioned £75 billion in the initial print run which will have a multiplier effect through fractional reserve banking and leverage of anywhere from between X10 to X20 the amount depending on how it filters through the economy

Read Article

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(c) 2005-2009MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )

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