Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Friday Stock Market CRASH Following Israel Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities - 19th Apr 24
All Measures to Combat Global Warming Are Smoke and Mirrors! - 18th Apr 24
Cisco Then vs. Nvidia Now - 18th Apr 24
Is the Biden Administration Trying To Destroy the Dollar? - 18th Apr 24
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 - 16th Apr 24
No Deposit Bonuses: Boost Your Finances - 16th Apr 24
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Bear Market and Dow Theory Update

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Apr 04, 2009 - 02:25 PM GMT

By: Tim_Wood

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe primary bearish trend change that occurred on November 21, 2007 still remains intact in accordance with classical Dow theory. However, in accordance with my cycles work the March low was indeed expected and my model immediately triggered a short-term buy signal that quickly evolved to the point at which an intermediate-term buy signal was also triggered. Thus, we have a cyclical advance within the context of an ongoing primary bear market.

I know from some of the e-mails I'm receiving and from some of the reports I'm hearing that there is talk that the “Messiah” has finally saved the markets. According to my longer-term cyclical and trend quantification work, this is not very likely. It is my opinion that all the “Messiah” has done is to further destroy the free markets and the dollar. All the while we are seeing false hopes and optimism that will ultimately only serve to suck the public back for another slaughter. I have maintained, since the blatant manipulation to resurrect the markets back in 2002, that these efforts will ultimately only make matters worse and that has indeed been the case.

The even more aggressive efforts that we are seeing now are no different. It's kind of like giving drugs to a junky. At first they only need a small amount. But, in a short amount of time they become addicted and become reliant on the drug. Over time, they then need more and more drug to satisfy their fix and when there is no drug the withdrawals become more and more severe, which in turn requires more and more drug. All the “Messiah” has done is give our junky economy more and more drug. In the end, if the drug addict doesn't get dried out he eventually overdoses and dies. That is where our credit saturated economy is headed and to think that throwing more of the same drug at the addict will cure him is a joke. You have been warned.

In the meantime, I'm being asked, how long will this rally last? The answer to this is actually quite simple. In my world, this rally will continue to advance until my intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator confirms a top. To say that this will occur next week or next month or in 3 months would be a bit on the bold side. Anyone that tells you they have such an answer it wrong because the reality is, they don't know exactly. I have learned to let the statistics and cycles help me to anticipate the phasing in which turns are probable, but ultimately it is the intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator that identifies the appropriate turns. In the meantime, all I can tell you is that based on the statistics the bear market is not over and that this is a bear market rally.

From a Dow theory perspective, it too is currently in agreement in that the bearish primary trend was last reconfirmed by both averages with the joint closing lows seen on March 9 th . The old time Dow theorists wrote that once the trend was established, as was the case on November 21, 2007, that trend is considered to still be in force until it is authoritatively reversed in accordance with Dow theory. To date, that has not occurred. Also in accordance with classical Dow theory, any price action between a secondary high point and secondary low point is of no forecasting value. In the current case, price is still operating within the boundaries of the last secondary high and low points. The current Dow theory chart can be found below.

I have begun doing free Friday market commentary that is available at so please begin joining me there. Should you be interested in more in depth analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator, which has done a fabulous job, on stock market, the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, oil, gasoline, and more, those details are available in the monthly research letter and short-term updates. We have called every turn in commodities, the dollar and the stock market. I have covering the details as to what's next with the stock market, the dollar and commodities with the latest in the October research letter and the short-term updates. Don't be fooled by the hype. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the Dow theory, and very detailed statistical based analysis plus updates 3 times a week. Also see

By Tim Wood

© 2009 Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved
Tim Wood specialises in Dow Theory and Cycles Analysis - Should you be interested in analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator as well as coverage on the Dow theory, other price quantification methods and all the statistical data surrounding the 4-year cycle, then please visit for more details. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the stock market, the dollar, bonds and gold. I also cover other areas of interest at important turn points such as gasoline, oil, silver, the XAU and recently I have even covered corn. I also provide updates 3 times a week plus additional weekend updates on the Cycle Turn Indicator on most all areas of concern. I also give specific expectations for turn points of the short, intermediate and longer-term cycles based on historical quantification.

Tim Wood Archive

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in