Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, June 20, 2015
The Simplest Way to View the U.S. Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: It has been a wild time for fixed-income investments over the last couple years...
Interest rates are historically low in the U.S. In Europe, rates have spent time in negative territory... meaning investors were willing to take a guaranteed loss.
It can be hard to get a handle on what's happening today in the bond market... never mind where things may be headed tomorrow.
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Friday, June 19, 2015
US. Bonds and Banks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Alasdair_Macleod
This year has seen some big losses develop in the bond markets, though prices have stabilised in recent days. The chart above is of the yield on the lowest investment risk in ten year maturities. Most other 10-year bonds have seen even sharper rises in yield (i.e. greater price falls). This matters because the banking system is heavily invested in sovereign bonds, not only in the short end of the market where it traditionally invests its liquidity, but also in longer maturities between five and ten years. Furthermore, central banks have become exposed to the same risk through their bond purchases with implications for currency stability, but that is a separate issue.
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Thursday, June 18, 2015
Bond Bubble - The Fed is Now Officially in VERY Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The market action of the last 24 hours can be summated as thus:
The Fed didn’t raise rates, so the US Dollar fell and all risk rallied hard.
The fact the Fed didn’t raise rates is not important. Interest rates have not been at zero for six years. And the last real period of tightening ended in 2006, nearly a full decade ago.
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Monday, June 15, 2015
Bond Market Bombshell - Deflation Rules! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Clive_Maund
DEFLATION RULES! - because periodic recessions, necessary to rebalance the economy after periods of growth, cannot be put off forever by the short-term expedient of printing money. The result of such corrupt and evasive practices is that the deflationary forces build up to catastrophic and overwhelming proportions leading to economic collapse and depression. This is the point that we have arrived at now. Why can't governments keep the game going indefinitely by printing more and more money? - because the debt grows and grows until it becomes apparent even to dull-witted bond / Treasury holders that they are never going to get their money back, so they start selling and the selling snowballs into an avalanche, driving interest rates through the roof. Bond and stockmarkets crash and the economy sinks into a dangerously deep depression, all because governments stubbornly refused to do the right thing all along, and interfered with and obstructed normal market forces, culminating in their idiotic and ruinous QE, ZIRP and now even NIRP.
Friday, June 05, 2015
US Jobs Report Gives Green Light for a Interest Rate Hike? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
TNX is back in the news this morning with a huge spike in yields. The monthly Jobs Report came out much better than expected. Never mind that the vast bulk of those jobs was fictitious, AKA the CES Birth/Death Model. This gives the Fed the green light to hike rates, er…to follow what the market is already doing with the rates. This is an awfully tight corner for the Fed to be in.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2015
The Coming Bond Market Collapse: Make a Killing – While Everyone Else Gets Killed / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: We’re hurtling toward the biggest bond bubble the world has ever seen.
It’s going to start leaking.
Then it’s going to pop.
Today I’m going to tell you what to look for – because I’m all over this.
I’m also going to share four handpicked recommendations that will soar when the bond bubble bursts.
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Thursday, May 28, 2015
We're Now Frighteningly Vulnerable to a Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: Water doesn’t flow uphill.
It’s a lesson in physics so basic that even schoolkids know it.
In fact, everyone knows it…
Everyone except – apparently – the world’s central bankers.
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Friday, May 22, 2015
Inaccurate Economic Statistics and The Threat to the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced in without accepting it is actually significantly higher.
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Monday, May 18, 2015
Bond Market Chaos Is Spinning Out of Control / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Michael Lewitt writes: A few weeks ago, the man formerly known as the Bond King, Bill Gross, tweeted that shorting German bunds would be the trade of the century.
I was gratified to see that he was reading my mind, as readers of my Credit Strategist newsletter already know.
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Friday, May 15, 2015
Double Black Diamond - What a Bond Bear Market Looks Like / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
I was a halfway decent skier when I was a kid. Good enough that I could navigate every trail on the mountain except for one or two. Good enough that I could do the double black diamonds.
My grandfather built a cabin on the access road to Sugarbush, Vermont, in the ‘80s and sold it in the ‘90s. Makes me weep when I think what that thing would be worth now. I wasn’t kidding when I said I come from a financially unsophisticated family.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Debt Bomb - Big Volatility Shakes Bond Market Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Is the debt bomb about to go off?
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2015
U.S. Bond Bear Market Still Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Caldaro
The has been lots of talk lately of a Bond market top. This type of talk has actually been going on, and off, for a few years. To our surprise we find we have not written a Bond specific report in nearly three years: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/bonds-and-long-term-rates/. In that report we detailed why we expected Bond yields to be bottoming in 2012. The 10YR did make a new yield low that year at 1.39%, and it has remained above that low ever since – currently 2.27%. The 30YR also made a new low yield that year at 2.45%. It then rose to 3.98% in 2014, but renewed its decline into a lower low at 2.23% in February of this year – currently 3.04%.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
TLT Breaks a Head & Shoulders Neckline / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
TLT just crossed the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation, suggesting a very steep decline to 107.76.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 04, 2015
U.S. Long Bond, an Historic Trading Opportunity? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Norcini
This past week saw a huge swing in interest rates at the long end of the curve with the long bond in particular getting knocked for a loop.
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Rush Hour! A Bond Market Traffic Jam / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes:
In the early 1990s I was a young bond trader with a Wall Street firm.
The business was not exactly like the movies, but it wasn’t too far off, either. We got to work by 7:00 a.m., set the strategy for the day — “Are we buying more or selling more?” — and then got on the phones.
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Monday, April 06, 2015
3 Sigma Extremes In the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DeviantInvestor
US T-Bond futures closed Friday, March 27 up nearly 12% from the February close. That was the 3rd largest monthly percent move since 1977 when my data begins and created a 3.61 standard deviation change. This is a huge move. What does it mean?
The US T-Bond market peaked on March 25 at an all-time high over 165, up from about 75 in 1990. Bonds move inversely with yields, so yields have dropped to their lowest level ever. This is not surprising because central banks have been monetizing sovereign debt, buying bonds, and supporting the bond and stock markets. Several $Trillion in European sovereign debt currently “pays” negative interest – an extreme condition. The Bank of Japan has aggressively purchased Japanese government bonds as well as Japanese stocks – another extreme example of a bond bubble.
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Friday, March 13, 2015
Watch As All the Bond Market Rats Jump Ship before FOMC Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Short-Term Market Flipping
Markets are just hilarious these days, there is no meaningful investments in the era of High Frequency Trading, Spoofing Algos, Pump & Dump IPO Schemes and ZIRP free money to borrow at the drop of a hat.
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Friday, March 13, 2015
The Crazy Man's Guide to the U.S.Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
I invite you to inspect the following chart of 10-year interest rates in the US.
If you don’t have a lot of experience with these things, let me clue you in: This is a very scary-looking chart. It’s a classic head-and-shoulders bottom in yields.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Six Days Until U.S. Bond Market Crash Begins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Run for the Exits
Early on Tuesday morning, realizing this was going to be a robust selloff in equities, the ‘smart money’, i.e., the big banks, investments banks, hedge funds and the like, ran to the old staple of buying bonds hand over fist with little regard for the yield they are getting paid for stepping in front of the freight train of rate rises coming down the tracks.
Monday, March 09, 2015
U.S. 30 Year US T-Bonds Price Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Austin_Galt
There has been quite a bit of chatter recently about interest rates in the US with many proclaiming interest rates are now headed up. Are these voices right? Having just analysed the technicals of the 30 Year US Treasury Bonds, it is my considered opinion that they are both right and wrong.
Keeping in mind that interest rates go up as bond prices go down, let’s investigate the price charts and we’ll mix it up by starting with the monthly chart first.
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