Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
TLT Update…US Bonds and Gold an Odd Couple / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start by looking at a weekly chart for TLT, 20 year bond etf, which shows it built out a H&S top last summer. That H&S top is a reversal pattern that showed up at the end of its bull market which has been ongoing for many years. There is a big brown shaded support and resistance zone that has been offering support.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Fed Monetary Policy Is Impotent Against These Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
Chris Wood of CLSA has a marvelous newsletter called, aptly, GREED & fear. He began his January 5 issue talking about bond yields possibly bottoming out.
For perspective, he starts with this long-term view of the 10-year US Treasury yield.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2017
How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades
Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
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Sunday, January 08, 2017
China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!
As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.
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Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Trumponomics Won’t Trump the Bond Market Bust / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 26, 2016
Moment of Truth for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Savage
Moment of Truth for Bonds
Bonds are severely oversold. There should be a bounce but if it’s weak, or doesn’t last very long then prepare for a crash. I’ve never seen a bubble yet that popped gracefully.
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Saturday, December 24, 2016
A Broken US Bond Market Bounce Beckons! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
Historical Correlations Give Us a Clue to What May Be Ahead!
A Falling Global Market Cap Trend Channel
The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend!
We are being possibly lulled into a false perception and belief of how good things appear if we solely look at the US equity rally. Yes it is temporarily rising but the 600# Gorilla is the Global Bond market and major problems are still lurking.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, foreign holders of US treasuries have been dumping their holdings more and at record pace. Optimists see it as a temporary fluctuation. Realists warn about structural change.
According to US Treasury data, major foreign holders of US treasury securities have been reducing their holdings by almost $250 billion since March. The pace of dumping has intensified with some $200 billion reduced in just past two months.
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Sunday, December 18, 2016
US Bond Market Implosion Continues / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Savage
The Bond Implosion Continues
Is the bond market implosion the next black swan event that everyone is ignoring?
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Saturday, December 17, 2016
The 70-year US Treasury Bond Market Cycle and SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Bonds
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2260. After a slightly lower open on Monday the SPX rallied to the current uptrend high at 2278 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the FED raised rates for the first time in a year and the market pulled back to SPX 2248. Then a rally on Thursday to SPX 2272 was followed by a smaller pullback into a Friday 2258 close. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economics reports were plentiful and ended the week slightly positive. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, build permits, plus the treasury budget increased. On the uptick: retail sales, the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, leading indicators and the PCE index. Best to your pre-holiday week!
Monday, December 12, 2016
The Yield That Breaks the Trump Rally's Back / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
In 2012 I wrote a book called "The Coming Bond Market Collapse", in that book I predicted that the bond market would begin to collapse by the end of 2016. Clearly, this prediction has started to come true. However, in all candor, I never dreamed that the Ten-year Treasury yield would plummet to 1.3%. Neither did I ever imagine that over thirteen trillion dollars' worth of global sovereign bonds would have a negative yield, as was the case this past summer.
Thursday, December 08, 2016
Violent US Bond Market Selloff: An Eye-Opening Perspective / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
In Elliott wave terms, bond investors have transitioned from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
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Wednesday, December 07, 2016
Cracks In US Treasury Bond Market, The Japanese Factor / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Foreign USTreasury Bond dumping continues, and even accelerates. China and the Saudis are selling USTreasurys in a near panic. Foreign central banks liquidated a record $375 billion in USGovt debt in the last 12 months. An American disaster lies in the making from debt saturation, debt overload, and debt dumping. It is all denied by the Washington mouthpieces and the Wall Street handlers, as they lie. The USGovt debt default is within view, dead ahead.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
Bonds: 90% of You Are Herding / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
90% (my low-balled estimate) of you, the investing public, are herding when it comes to the bond market. You may not know it because the overwhelming psychological atmosphere is to reaffirm, not question peoples’ behavior. That is what herding is; a comforting feeling of going with the flow and being at one with your environment and the greater zeitgeist.
Now, please don’t be offended by the title; you dear reader may well be one of the 10%. But out there in the financial investment realm, they are herding, BIG time, as bond yields are expected to continue rising, because… media; because… “Great Rotation, part 2” and because… the story of epic secular changes and the chance to be early and clued in to a great new market phase are so alluring.
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Monday, December 05, 2016
The Bond Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Savage
Is the bubble in the bond market about to burst? Even a move back to the 38% retracement level over the next several weeks would cause chaos in the global financial markets.
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Tuesday, November 29, 2016
The US Bond Bear Market Has Begun! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : It’s almost as if I can see the future.
In the September 22 issue of The 10th Man, I went through the math of how people would get screwed in a bond bear market.
I gave some concrete examples of what would happen if rates backed up 100 basis points. And sure enough, since the election, rates have backed up about 40 basis points.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Stock Market New All Tiime Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Stock Market Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story
Chart of the Day
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Saturday, November 12, 2016
Did U.S. Treasury Bonds Just Get Stumped by Trump? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The answer to where T-Bonds are headed is not in the news headlines about Trump. It's in the Elliott wave pattern
On November 9, the United States woke to the biggest political shock since Harry Truman defeated "shoe-in" Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 U.S. presidential election.
For U.S. bond investors, the 2016 election has been head-spinning too.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…
Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets. But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’. It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.
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Monday, October 24, 2016
Did a Secret Central Banking Cabal Just Turn AGAINST the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Quietly and with little if any notice, foreign Central Banks have begun DUMPING US Debt.
Take a look at this chart. Does this look like a bull market to you? Because to me it looks like it could be the beginning of a panic sale.
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