Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
What You Need to Know If You’re Exposed to Muni Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rodney_Johnson
The housing bust was awful, particularly in Florida and other “sand states.” As the economy slowed, consumers lost their jobs, and when they couldn’t pay their mortgages, they then lost their homes.
Even though that wrenching period happened almost a decade ago, it will live in our memories for years to come. I can recall much of the pain, but also other aspects of the moment. Some people were desperate for the relief that came their way; others were using it as cover to game the system.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
TNX - A little Late But Still Expected / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
The high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model for early last week was delayed for three days by option expiration. Even if the high is seen today or tomorrow, that would still be within the margin of error for the model. The new high in the Dow probably means that a new Basic Advance began last February but we’ll wait and see what happens during the upcoming pullback before making that “official”.
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Saturday, July 09, 2016
10-Year Treasury Bond At All-Time Low...Explains Stocks Bull Market... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jack_Steiman
We have been going nowhere for a couple of years. Within that process the emotions of all traders were tested over and over. Many times it appeared that the market was about to break down. Action was terrible on price and their oscillators, and that bad action was accompanied by poor economic reports. One after another, they came in poorly. Just when all hope seemed lost for the bulls they'd pull some magic trick, also known as fed-magic dust. A QE program here. A bail out there. Low rates forever everywhere kept the markets from breaking down. It was good to be the fed. You needed a bull to keep the economy going through those 401K reports. It didn't always work though because the market couldn't break out.
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Saturday, July 09, 2016
Dead Pulses & Urgent Systemic Reform / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Several important factors work in a powerful manner to debilitate, to distort, and to wreck the global financial and economic system. It is long past the point of effective remedy. After the Lehman kill event, every conceivable wrong move and policy was made and implemented. The investment in the corrupt elements has been so profound in the last several years, as to make remedy impossible. The official policies have been so errant and heretical, as to make remedy impossible. The distortions with the broken elements have been so dedicated in service to the ruling banker class, as to make remedy impossible.
Saturday, June 11, 2016
Final Top Of US Bond Bull Market Set For 3rd Qtr of 2016 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Austin_Galt
The 30 Year US Treasury Bond market has been trending up since 1981. This massive bull market is set to reach its conclusion next quarter if my analysis is correct.
Let's analyse the technicals of both price and yield of the 30 Year US T-Bond. We'll begin with the longer term quarterly chart of price.
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Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Interest Rates: Ten-year US Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX (the yield on the 10 year, US Treasury note) fell 3.65% to close at 18.19 on the 30-dma last week. Look for a bounce with equities early this week but don’t expect it to be sustained as the daily Coppock is still high enough to expect a top, not a bottom. Resistance is near 20.00. Look for support at Friday’s close. A break of this level opens the door for a return to the April low near 17.00.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
US Bonds Nearing Their All-time High / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USB futures are lingering at their lows from Friday. The Cycles Model suggests a Trading cycle low may be made at any time in the next 72 hours. What may follow is a ramp to the average target of the Bullish Flag formation.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2016
End Of The Petrodollar: Saudi Arabia Threatens To Dump $700b In Treasuries If Blamed For 9/11 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jeff_Berwick
Every day a new major piece of news comes out showing a system that is on the verge of collapse… and a planned shift to a new global order. In the last two weeks alone, all of this has occurred:
Tuesday, March 08, 2016
U.S. Treasury Shorts Pounded into the Ground / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This has got to be a decline for the records. There is nothing else like it in this chart. The treasury shorts are getting nailed.
ZeroHedge reports, “Over the past week we have been following a disturbing development in the US Treasury market: while the repo rate on the 10Y has been sliding deep into negative territory for a while, on Friday it finally hit the "fails charge" of -3.00%, suggesting there is a massive shortage of Treasury paper as a result of wholesale shorting by various market participants.
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Friday, March 04, 2016
Short Squeeze in Treasuries? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Day 43 came and went with a small throw-over of the trendline at the close. This final thrust made 21 waves (an impulse) from 1931.88 to today’s close, so I don’t see how they can add any more waves to it.
The normal amount of time in a counter-trend rally is 21 days in a bear market, and often much shorter. Today is day 21 from the February 11 low, so it appears to have fulfilled the time requirement. One of my Swing Models suggested February 26 would give us the turn, but it is now 6 calendar days overdue. Since tomorrow is 4.3 market days from my projected “swing high,” I had originally suggested that tomorrow would be the first low of the decline. I will eat crow over that call.
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Monday, February 01, 2016
US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
Since we covered the many different markets in detail last week I would like to focus back in on the US dollar and the TLT looking for clues for the big picture direction. The huge daily swings, in say the INDU last week, makes it very hard to keep and hold a short or long position unless you're perfect on your entry point. In a bull market it's two steps forward and one step backward and in a bear market it's two steps down and one step up. If an entry point in a bear market is not made in the first part of the two steps down sequence you'll find your self behind at some point in the trade if the entry point was made in step two. This is one reason why it's so important to know the direction of the big trend. Until something changes I believe the US stock markets are now in a bear market. There are a lot of things that can change that outlook but for today that's what the charts are suggesting.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
U.S. Bond Market Not Destined to Crash in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sol_Palha
Always do what you are afraid to do. Ralph Waldo Emerson
The trend in bonds was bullish for a long time, and one can see how bonds ran up during that time frame. Currently, its neutral and that also has to be viewed through a bullish lens as it should have turned negative given the run-up. Bonds need to close on a weekly basis above 160.00 relatively soon. In fact, there is a good chance that if the next run up fails to take out the August highs of 161-23, bonds will be paving the way for a move down to the 152.00 ranges and then 147-148 ranges. Traders willing to take on a bit of a risk could consider opening long positions at both levels. Some funds could be deployed at 152 or better and some at 148 or better. Market Update, Nov 1st, 2015.
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By E.B. Tucker
Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.
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Tuesday, November 10, 2015
10-year US Treasury Note / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
The rate on the 10-year US Treasury Note (ticker symbol TNX) had its best week since June last week with a gain of 8.46% to close at 23.33. It even printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on Friday.
Most of the week’s gain came on Friday’s strong non-farm payroll report. The breakout from the June bear trendline would seem to open the door for a return to the June high near 24.75 but…
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Friday, October 02, 2015
US Bond Market - How to Fix This / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
By Jared Dillian
This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since.
I think what’s interesting here is how shamefully far behind the Fed is on this. Dudley is out there still talking rate hikes. Like, just the other day. He has gone right out of his tree. It’s almost as if he lost his B-Unit and can’t log into Bloomberg.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Rubino
One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.
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Sunday, September 13, 2015
Three Critical and Disturbing Facts About the Debt Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Andrew Snyder writes: The next five days are going to be some of the most important days for investors in recent history. What happens next will set the stage for big profits or a sustained downturn.
We are worried about what the Fed has done to the interest rate game. As Yellen and her troops prepare to raise rates for the first time in over half a decade, the distortions they created in the market have become flat-out dangerous.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
A Street Car Named U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
sIn the 1947 Tennessee Williams play "A Streetcar Named Desire" as she is being carted off to the mental institution Blanche Dubois utters these famous words ... "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers."
And like Ms. Dubois, the United States has also come to depend on the kindness of strangers to fund a massive $18.3 trillion in debt.
But that kindness the US Treasury has come to depend upon may be waning. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell in May for a second straight month. The Treasury Department reported total holdings were down 0.1% in May to $6.13 trillion. This comes after an even bigger 0.6% decline in April.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
10yr Treasury Notes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note, fell for the fourth week in a row with a loss of 1.36% to close at 21.75 on Friday after challenging the 30-dma earlier in the week. TNX remains in the 2015 trend channel and should find support at the lower boundary and 200-dma both which are near 21.34.
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Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Greenspan Warns Be Afraid of U.S. Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bloomberg
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the U.S. economy, bond market and Fed policy.
On how afraid we should be of bubbles, Greenspan said: "Very much so. I think we have a pending bond market bubble. If we merely substitute the structure of equity prices and we have the price of bonds and instead of expected equity return we do have expected interest rate return. That price earnings ratio is an extraordinarily unstable position."
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