Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, July 03, 2017
NY Fed President Just Admitted Ignoring The Bond Market… I Have A Theory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
Speaking at a Business Roundtable event, New York Fed President William Dudley reportedly expressed great confidence in both the economy and the Fed’s policy moves.
Dudley is not even slightly concerned about the Fed’s overshooting with its rate hikes. In fact, he is supremely confident that inflation will overshoot if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy.
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Tuesday, June 27, 2017
US Bonds and Related Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Excerpted from the June 25 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which also included comprehensive analysis of US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and stock charts galore (with the Market Internals segment, in particular, having evolved into what I find to be a must-have guide).
TLT is now a buck from its target of 129. Tell me, where is all that mania about rising interest rates and the likes of the “R.I.P. Bond Bull Market” headlines (Bloomberg called the bottom almost to the day with that Louise Yamada hype). Now a mature bounce labors on. 129 does not need to stop the move, but it’s a long-standing marker, so…
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Monday, June 19, 2017
US Bonds and Related Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
The June 18 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole has a few less stock charts this week in order to ramp up the macro talk, which appeared periodically through the report; but especially in the Precious Metals and Bonds segments. Excerpted from NFTRH 452…
Bonds & Related Indicators (and more macro discussion)
The target for TLT continues to be around 129. Treasury bonds are in bull trends (remember back a few months ago to all the bond hatred in the media). How does an eventual decline in bonds square with what we just noted above regarding Q4 2008? [work done in the preceding Precious Metals segment] Treasury bonds were a wonderfully bullish asset during Armageddon ’08 and who’s to say that an upside blow off may not be coming sooner rather than later amid massively over bullish sentiment? I mean, there is certainly no stop sign at our 129 target. Sentiment, as we are all too aware, can take a long while to manifest in pricing.
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Saturday, June 03, 2017
Can a Chart Pattern Help You Catch a Strong Bond Rally? Yes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Plus, find out about a dangerous flaw in a "buy-and-hold" stock market strategy
The Elliott wave model has helped investors catch market turns for eight decades.
As Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle, says:
The Wave Principle is the best forecasting tool in existence. [It] imparts an immense amount of knowledge about the market's position … and its probable ensuing path.
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Thursday, May 11, 2017
What’s the Fed Factor in US Treasury Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Harry_Dent
I hate taxes.I don’t begrudge paying for a functioning government, it’s the dysfunctional favoritism that ticks me off.
This amorphous blob in Washington sucks dollars out of my wallet and then tells me not to worry about how it’s spent, even as I watch the government hand my dollars out like candy.
I’m still beside myself about General Motors.
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Saturday, April 29, 2017
Recall This US Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
US Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note - gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.
The monthly chart below shows how the long-term trend line has turned back the rally in TNX on numerous occasions. However, as the monthly Coppock Curve failed to confirm the 2012 low during the 2016 test of that low we’ve probably seen the low of the +30yr decline in interest rates.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.
The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.
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Tuesday, April 04, 2017
All Eyes on US Bond Market Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After the first day of trading of April, a relatively uneventful one for the equity markets in general, the most consequential market for me is 10-year yield!
Yield continues to exhibit weakness, and is bearing down on a critical 5-month support level at 2.30%, which if violated and sustained, will trigger downside continuation signals that project to 2.10% optimally, and possibly to 2.00% prior to the next upmove (in yield).
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.
Saturday, February 25, 2017
A Damaging Week for U.S. Treasury Yield! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
What a weird and unsettling week. The equity indices for the most preserved their gains, albeit despite Thursday's divergent action, while the bond market went straight up (YIELD straight down), which is the more curious of the major asset class behavior as we head into the weekend...
Technically, the plunge in yield fom 2.46% on Tuesday to 2.30% on Friday (-6.5%) has broken the integrity of the Dec-Feb high-level coil/digestion pattern. It is threatening to morph all of the action since Dec 15 (2.64%) into an intermediate-term top formation that will project weaker yield into the area of the up-sloping 200 day eMA, now at 2.10%
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Tuesday, January 31, 2017
US 10-Year Bond Yield Transitioning Out of Multi-Year Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10 year U.S. Treasury YIELD argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35 year Bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year Bull Market (dominant uptrend).
From 1981, when 10 year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, un-containable inflation and stagnant growth ("Stagflation") precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-Financial-Crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).
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Wednesday, January 25, 2017
TLT Update…US Bonds and Gold an Odd Couple / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start by looking at a weekly chart for TLT, 20 year bond etf, which shows it built out a H&S top last summer. That H&S top is a reversal pattern that showed up at the end of its bull market which has been ongoing for many years. There is a big brown shaded support and resistance zone that has been offering support.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Fed Monetary Policy Is Impotent Against These Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
Chris Wood of CLSA has a marvelous newsletter called, aptly, GREED & fear. He began his January 5 issue talking about bond yields possibly bottoming out.
For perspective, he starts with this long-term view of the 10-year US Treasury yield.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2017
How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades
Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
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Sunday, January 08, 2017
China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!
As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.
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Wednesday, January 04, 2017
Trumponomics Won’t Trump the Bond Market Bust / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 26, 2016
Moment of Truth for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Savage
Moment of Truth for Bonds
Bonds are severely oversold. There should be a bounce but if it’s weak, or doesn’t last very long then prepare for a crash. I’ve never seen a bubble yet that popped gracefully.
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Saturday, December 24, 2016
A Broken US Bond Market Bounce Beckons! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
Historical Correlations Give Us a Clue to What May Be Ahead!
A Falling Global Market Cap Trend Channel
The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend!
We are being possibly lulled into a false perception and belief of how good things appear if we solely look at the US equity rally. Yes it is temporarily rising but the 600# Gorilla is the Global Bond market and major problems are still lurking.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, foreign holders of US treasuries have been dumping their holdings more and at record pace. Optimists see it as a temporary fluctuation. Realists warn about structural change.
According to US Treasury data, major foreign holders of US treasury securities have been reducing their holdings by almost $250 billion since March. The pace of dumping has intensified with some $200 billion reduced in just past two months.
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