Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Bond Market Shows Us The Power Of The Dark Side / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy.

Over the years, I have published many price trend change expectations which have hit quite well. Some examples include the top to gold in 2011 at 1915 (with gold topping at 1921), the bottom in the dollar in 2011 (with an expectation of a multi-year rally to within pennies of our target struck six years later), many major turning points in the S&P500, and many other calls throughout the last 8 years I have been publishing my market calls.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 01, 2019

US Bond Market You Have to Invite the Vampire Into Your House / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank.

You see, the Federal Reserve inflates money supplies as a matter of doing business, which is why I noted so strenuously in Q4 2018 that Jerome Powell’s then-hawkish stance in the face of a declining stock market made perfect sense… because the 30 year Treasury bond was not bullish; it was bearish and getting more so under the pressure of rising inflation expectations.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, March 22, 2019

Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Amerman

In a previous analysis we examined how to create a 21% yield, as the incidental byproduct of the Fed's plans for the cyclical containment of recession.

In this analysis, we will deepen that examination and visually illustrate the financial mathematics that would create a potential 48% yield from what the Federal Reserve plans to do in the event of another recession.

This analysis is part of a series of related analyses, an overview of the rest of the series is linked here.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Here’s Why 10%+ US Treasury Bond Yields Are a Real Possibility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

The US Treasury has closed the books on Fiscal Year 2018, which was another debt-financed failure.

The federal government spent above $4.1 trillion in FY 2018. It had to borrow $779 billion on budget and a few hundred billion more off-budget.

And over 40% of the on-budget deficit went simply to pay $325 billion in interest on previously-issued debt.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, October 15, 2018

US Bond market Yields Break 20-year Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Donald_W_Dony

Bond yields have been in decline for a long time. In fact, throughout the last 20 years, the 10 and 20 year US Treasury bonds yields have dropped by almost 80 percent.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 04, 2018

US Bond Yields Positioned for Upside Acceleration / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Ten-year Yield has climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!

From a technical perspective, today's surge above May-Oct 2018 resistance at 3.11% is a reaction to very strong recent data showing strong ADP Payrolls for September (230,000 vs. 185,000 expected), and impressive ISM Non-manufacturing data across the Headline data (61.6 vs. 58 expected), as well as the sub-surveys in Business Activity, Prices, Orders and Employment for September.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, August 31, 2018

Recommendation for Bond Investors: Don’t Fight Financial Repression / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: F_F_Wiley

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports this month—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets.

I plan to post a few charts summarizing the new reports, but because I’m sounding off on bonds for now (or in a moment) and don’t need all the detail to support my argument, I’ll share only a short summary of the first report.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

US Treasury Bonds $TNX Curveball Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Over the last several months or so I’ve been writing about the bond market throwing us a possible curveball. Instead of continuing rising interest rate we may see falling rates. Today the $TNX, 10 year treasury yield finally broke below the neckline we’ve been following that started to developing back in January of this year. I’ve labeled the H&S top as an unbalanced H&S top as the price action formed a second right shoulder that was a small H&S top. A backtest to the neckline would now come into play around the 28.65 area.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: F_F_Wiley

It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs.

In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.

But maybe the powerful bear story has become overplayed, maybe it was fully or almost fully priced in by mid-May, when the 10-year Treasury yield reached a six-year high of 3.11%. If so, it might be a good time to revisit the argument that the secular bull is still intact, a time for contrarians to speak up.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2018

The Bond Market Just Figured Out That Central Banks CANNOT Exit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

To recap yesterday’s piece concerning the recent shift in Central Bank policy, from mid-2016 onward:

1)   Central Banks engaging in emergency levels of QE at a time in which their respective economies were growing.

2)   Inflation bottoming then beginning to rise.

3)   Bond markets starting to revolt.

4)   Central Banks opting to walk back their QE programs.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, April 30, 2018

US Bond Market 10-Year Yield: From A 35-Year Bear To A Generational Bull Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In early March, 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years. The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor inflation data provide adequate justification for yield to be higher than it was two months ago. But there are times when the contradicting longer-term technical set-up should be heeded, even when the trend lacks strong support from lagging tabular data.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, April 06, 2018

Why Are Markets Going Bonkers? Central Bankers Tried to Corner the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

The real issue is that from ’09 until recently, the market was completely artificial because Central Banks cornered ALL risk by cornering the sovereign bond market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

The Bond Market is SCREAMING Inflation, But Stock Investors are Clueless / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Inflation is now reaching a crescendo.

The fact is that inflation develops in stages in the economy. The first stage concerns the price of items being bought and sold by wholesalers. We saw this begin to surge starting in the middle of last year. And it was a global phenomenon.

Paying more for something is manageable for a while. However, at some point the increase in prices is passed on into the economy in the form of more expensive goods and services. This is when inflation truly begins to become a problem.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, March 09, 2018

US Bond Market 3 Amigos Bottom Line / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

You thought I was done with the Amigos shtick, did you? Not by a long shot ma’am. They are the happy-go-lucky riders in play as the stock bull market churns on. They are the rising SPX/Gold ratio and stocks in general vs. gold (Amigo #1), rising US 10yr & 30yr yields (Amigo #2) and the flattening 10-2 yield curve (Amigo #3). On their current trends these goofy riders have signaled “a-okay!” to casino patrons playing the stock market and other risk ‘on’ items.

Taking our macro indicators out of order, let’s start with Amigo #2, who we have been noting to be bracing for something…

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Stocks? Who Cares? You Should Worry about Something Else, Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Investors are still worried about the stock market. It’s quite understandable, given the recent correction, but it draws their attention away from the really important developments. Let’s analyze the hidden threats and consider how they could affect the gold prices.

It’s Bonds, Stupid!

Let’s establish one thing at the beginning. The bond market is more important than the stock market. First, it’s significantly bigger. The global bond market exceeds $100 trillion, while the global stock market is higher than $70 trillion. Point for bonds.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

4% US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The two most important factors in determining the level of sovereign bond yields are the credit and inflation risks extant within a nation. When determining a country’s ability to service its debt investors must analyze not only the absolute debt level, but also the ratios of debt and deficits to GDP. In addition, the current rate of inflation must also be viewed within the context of debt in order to make an accurate assumption as to the level of future inflation.

When analyzing historical measures of these criteria, the conclusion reached is that the U.S. 10-year Note yield should rise to at least four percent in the coming quarters.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Is The 37 Year Bullish US Treasury Bond Market Ending? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

The bond market has enjoyed a strong bull market for nearly four decades with yields continuing to go lower. The bull market has been going on for so long that no current active fund manager can imagine what it looks like when interest rates were to be like the 1980s at 20%. If people in the 1980s started trading in their early thirties, they would have been almost 70 years old by now, so chances are they are not active in the market anymore.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, February 05, 2018

Global Synchronized US Bond Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close.

However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 04, 2018

10yr Yield Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.

Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 01, 2018

Will the Threat of a Bear Market in Bonds Finally Get Stocks Attention? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The single most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.

According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally considered the “risk free” rate of the return for the entire financial system.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Page << | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 30 | >>