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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2009

Fed's Flawed Strategy of Buying Long Dated Treasuries to Force Rates Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Bernanke thinks he can manipulate treasury yields by purchasing long dated treasuries. He can't. The market is simply too big. Please consider Treasurys slide after Fed purchases .

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Do Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Long Run? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Bother With Bonds?
So Then, Bonds for the Long Run?
P/E Ratios at 200? Really?
Mark-to-Market Slip Slides Away
Housing Sales Improve? Not Hardly

Investors, we are told, demand a risk premium for investing in stocks rather than bonds. Without that extra return, why invest in risky stocks if you can get guaranteed returns in bonds? This week we look at a brilliantly done paper examining whether or not investors have gotten better returns from stocks over the really long run and not just the last ten years, when stocks have wandered in the wilderness. This will not sit well with the buy and hope crowd, but the data is what the data is. Then we look at how bulls are spinning bad news into good and, if we have time, look at how you should analyze GDP numbers. Are we really down 6%? (Short answer: no.) It should make for a very interesting letter.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 27, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Heading for Day of Reckoning / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: The U.K. Treasury held a bond auction on Wednesday morning. On the offer were 1.75 billion pounds ($2.55 billion ) worth of 40-year “Gilts” — the U.K. equivalent of U.S. Treasuries. There was just one problem …

Buyers went on strike! They offered to purchase just 1.63 billion pounds ($2.37 billion) of debt.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields: Government Intervention Breeds Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor many months, I have been tracking US Government 10 year Treasury bonds essentially stating that they have topped out. In my most recent article on Treasury bonds, I stated: "the upside for Treasury bonds is limited, and there is a high degree of certainty that a new secular trend is developing that favors higher yield pressures. "

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

How China Will Deal with the Growing U.S. Debt Mountain / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Patalon III writes: Although there's a veritable laundry list of obstacles that could blunt the U.S. government's ongoing economic turnaround efforts, its single-biggest challenge may come from its single-biggest creditor - China.

When China announced a new array of stimulus measures earlier this month , this very important plan was overshadowed by China Premier Wen Jiabao's concerns about the United States' quickly growing debt load.

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Politics

Monday, March 23, 2009

China Afraid of Loss of Value of $2 Trillion of Reserves / Politics / US Bonds

By: Pravda

Dominick L. Auci writes: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is worried. His country keeps over $2 trillion of its foreign reserves in U.S. Treasuries. He's afraid that Obama's big spending plans will weaken the dollar and erode the value of those enormous assets. Given the dismal financial state of the rest of the world, that's a pretty high-class problem, especially for a devout communist. Jiaboa called on the United States to “honor its word, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets”.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 23, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Jolted by Panic Mode Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market was jolted up by the “surprise” (not entirely for the readers of this column) announcement that the Fed will be buying not only additional boatloads of Mortgage Backed Securities and Agency bonds, but also up to $300 Billion Treasury paper during the next 6 months in order to keep a lid on interest rates for the foreseeable future. As previously discussed, the Fed has already taken the Fed Funds Rate down to zero, so they are “all in” on that front. Now they opened a new kettle of fish by joining the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan in what is called Quantitative Easing – i.e. purchasing Treasury bonds in the Fed's case.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Fed illusion as Rising U.S. Bond Prices Cancelled Out by Plunging Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clive_Maund

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week a very dangerous precedent was set when the Fed announced that it is going to start overtly intervening to backstop the ailing Treasury market. The market's verdict on this announcement was immediate and unequivocal. While Treasuries rallied sharply as one might expect, the dollar cratered and gold staged a dramatic turnaround to close sharply higher. The reason that this precedent is so dangerous is that once they start monetising this debt, which means creating money to buy that portion of newly created Treasury debt that cannot be sold off, there will be no end to it - they will eventually find themselves buying more and more of it, as foreign buyers continue to withdraw, deterred by a combination of pitifully low yields and any prospective capital gain being wiped out by the continued decline in the dollar that must transpire as a result of diluting the currency by creating money to absorb unsold Treasury paper.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 22, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Reach the Bottom, Upward Pressure Starts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed has done everything possible to stimulate the economy by slashed interest rates to record lows, injecting billions of dollars into the financial system and even recently saying it will begin a program to buy up to $300 billion in government treasuries. All of these efforts have driven bond yields down to record lows. Models are now indicating that yields are on the rise.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Fed Delivers a Gift to Bond Bulls with More to Come / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Wednesday, March 18, another handsome gift was delivered by the Fed to the bond bulls. It was the announcement that the Open Market Committee has made a unanimous decision for the central bank to buy $300 billion in long-term Treasury bonds and notes over the next six-month period. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond immediately fell from 3.8% to 3.5%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell more: from 3% to 2.53%, increasing the price of the note by 42/32 from 9726/32 to 10128/32, the biggest one-day rise in years. The gift of risk-free profits is granted to the bond bulls through courtesy of the Fed, in telling them in advance about its intention of buying long-dated government debt.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Fed Launching Trillion Dollar Bond Market Lifeboat Before the Ship Sinks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn March 19 the New York Times reported : "The Fed said it would purchase an additional $750 billion worth of government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, on top of the $500 billion that it is currently in the process of buying. In addition, the Fed said it would buy up to $300 billion worth of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months."

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Politics

Thursday, March 19, 2009

China Sends Obama a Clear Message on U.S. Debt / Politics / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTony Sagami writes: What would happen if your boss cut your salary, you had no savings, and none of the banks or credit card companies would lend you any money? You'd be in some deep doo-doo, wouldn't you?

Well … that's exactly the situation the U.S. is potentially staring at if foreign governments decide they don't want to loan us any more money by buying U.S. Treasury and other government-backed bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

US Treasury Bonds As Competitor Safe Haven For Gold / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDogs and cats are mortal enemies in the animal world. In the insect world, ants and termites are mortal enemies. In the financial world, gold and USTreasury Bonds are mortal enemies. They compete for the revered role of safe haven for funds. In today's day and age, with numerous storms, some unprecedented, safe haven is especially valuable. One of the most important jobs for the US Federal Reserve, JPMorgan (its agent), and the US Congress is to create the impression that USTreasurys are indeed not only safe, but beyond reproach and free from any hint of default potential. In recent months, with a failure of many important US-based financial engines, and sharp economic decline, made more complex by mammoth commitments from the USGovt on rescues and stimulus, the pristine image of USTreasurys has suffered from severe tarnish.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Bond Market Fails to Follow Stock Markets Sharp Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market traded sideways last week in spite of the sharp rally in equities. The market received the bond auctions quite smoothly as it was supported by further rumours of potential Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury securities. Since the US Federal Reserve has already lowered their benchmark to the 0-0.25% range, there is not much room left for them to stimulate the economy with further rate cuts. As a result, bond traders are expecting the Fed leaders to announce a Treasury bond purchase program as early as at their next policy meeting on Wednesday, March 18. Most market watchers are familiar with the “Greenspan put” that got the economy off the hook every time it encountered a bump in the road.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2009

New Recovery Highs Expected in UltraShort TBT T-Bond ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy near and intermediate term work indicates strongly that the upside pivot low at 44.01 last Friday (3/06) in the ProShares Ultrashort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) completed the corrective period off of the 2/09 recovery rally high at 49.86. If that proves to be the case, then all of the action this week- the climb to 48.20 on Wed., followed by the pullback yest. and today- represent the start of a new upleg that should propel the TBT to new recovery highs.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Disintegrating Financial System: Haircut Time for Bond Holders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Whitney

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." John Kenneth Galbraith

When George Soros recently said that the financial system had "effectively disintegrated", it caused quite a flap. But Soros was not exaggerating. The financial system has disintegrated. What we are experiencing now is just the fallout from that event. This is easier to understand by using an analogy. Imagine watching the demolition of a hundred-story skyscraper. After the explosives detonate and the building implodes, the chunks of debris and the shattered glass begin to fall to the ground below.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 09, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Short-term Bounce Continues / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded up last week. All you little traders out there who have long positions in the bond market, let's all say a big thank you to the Bank of England – which not only lowered their benchmark rate to a new all time low of 0.50%, but also loudly trumpeted that they will be in the market buying long term Gilts (UK Government bonds) in the not too distant future. This announcement caused a close to 50 basis point rally in the 10 year Gilts and rallies of lesser magnitude in other government bond markets. Supply will be a front page item again in the US as the Treasury will be conducting what used to be a quarterly auction cycle for the second month in a row. The market will need to deal with new supply of 3, 10 and 30 year bonds as the week unfolds.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded down last week. The market action was quite disappointing for a number of reasons. The fundamental data remains dismal and considerably weaker than consensus forecasts. Pressure on the stock markets has not eased up one bit. The S&P500 Stock Index broke key support at 800 a couple of weeks ago and it ended the month of February below the lows of last November. Needless to say stocks had a brutal 2008, a record January drop to start 2009 and then followed up with the worst February performance on record.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 02, 2009

U.S. Bond Market Performance Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor a while after the Q4 2008 simultaneous crash of nearly all forms of assets, bonds recovered and stocks did not.  However, of late, bonds are not so strong.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Obama Says Short U.S. Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pollaro

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBank bailouts, homeowner bailouts, auto industry bailouts, and now massive stimulus packages; the Federal Government spending list goes on and on. The Federal Deficit for this fiscal year is projected by Goldman Sachs to be as high as $2.5 trillion. That's 5.5 times the fiscal 2007 Federal Deficit and 1.5 times Gross U.S. Savings. A $2.5 trillion deficit will create quite a waterfall on this graph, don't you think:

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