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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, May 08, 2009

The Clock is Ticking on the U.S. Dollar and Bond Markets! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is the beginning of the third edition of the “Fingers of Instability” series.  The first edition was in the winter/spring of 2007, the second in the winter/spring of 2008, and now the third in the spring of 2009.  The Fingers of Instability are ANALOGOUS to nature as seen in a sand pile.  In August 2006, John Mauldin (John@frontlinethoughts.com) commented on a study of sand piles by three physicists who created a sand pile with a computer program that dropped one grain of sand on top of another to study critical states:  NON-EQUILIBRIUM systems and uncertainty.  When I read this, I immediately realized the debt bubbles throughout the world were an analogy to these studies and explained a great deal about the last three decades of debt creation.  It reinforced my observations about Ponzi finance and asset-backed economies.  It explained quite nicely what was transpiring and what to expect at some point in relation to PILES of DEBT and the FAKE prosperity and growth caused by EASY MONEY and runaway credit expansion.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 08, 2009

Bursting Of The U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble: Not So Fast! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has spiked 10% in the past two weeks, and many are now jumping on the "bonds are the next bubble to burst" bandwagon. I was one of the first to be bearish on Treasury bonds calling for the likelihood of a secular trend change back in December, 2008 and a top in back in February, 2009. Higher Treasury yields are in our future, and it isn't a matter of if but when.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Inflation or Deflation: Who is the Winner? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Q1_Publishing

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low. Indeed, given the sizable margin of slack in resource utilization and diminished cost pressures from oil and other commodities, inflation is likely to move down some...

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market gave up a major support level last week as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%.  The stocks for bonds switch continued unabated, where it stops, nobody knows.  As the short end remains anchored, any back-up in long term rates causes the yield curve to steepen.  This is a good news – bad news story in the present environment.  It is excellent news for financials that can still afford to borrow short and lend long as they can earn a significant carry on that trade. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 01, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Debt Bubble Bursting! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: You’d think that after the dot-com bubble … the housing bubble … and the bubbles in commercial real estate and private equity, investors would have learned their lesson.

Nope! They did the same stupid things this fall …

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Bond Vigilantes are Fighting the Fed By Pushing Up Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCant' fight the Fed? Bond vigilantes are fighting the Fed and winning at bidding up bond yields. Short of another shock-&-awe policy announcement this Wednesday, the FOMC decision is likely to generate fresh dollar strength against risk currencies (non-JPY).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 27, 2009

Obama Says Short US Treasuries, an Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pollaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBack in March, I penned this essay, Obama Says Short US Treasuries, making the bear case for the US government’s fiscal position and the Treasury long bond: http://mises.org/story/3364

Then I wrote this follow-up, Inflection Point in US Treasury Bond Interest Rates Near: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9294.html

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 27, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Fall Despite Supportive Fundamentals / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market is testing the line in the sand drawn by the Bernanke Fed at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury note yield.  While stocks held their own with the Nasdaq closing positive for the 7th week in a row, bonds continued to trade in a leaky fashion.  There was all sorts of chatter about the government stress tests being flunked by most financial institutions, but until we see an official announcement, rumours of across the board insolvencies remain just that: rumours! 

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 19, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Now 2 Standard Deviations Cheaper than Stocks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market continues to chop around aimlessly.  The market was stronger most of the week, but a 2 point sell-off on Friday destroyed all the gains and then some.  The fundamental news turned considerably weaker – even in relation to expectations - but the stock market managed to show further gains for the 6th week in a row now.  That generated further outflow from bonds to stocks.  Based on the Fed model which compares the 10 year Treasury note to the dividend yield in the stock market, stocks made a close to 4 standard deviation move relative to bonds in a little over one month. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

What to Do When the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Falls / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTom Dyson Writes: Jesse Livermore called it "the path of least resistance." Livermore is probably the greatest trader that ever lived. He made his first fortune in the stock market as a teenager... in the late 1890s. The book of his trading techniques – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – is the best book on stock market trading ever written. You shouldn't buy another stock until you've read it. (Just don't copy his money-management techniques. By overtrading, Livermore made and lost several multimillion-dollar fortunes in his lifetime.)

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 13, 2009

Economic Weakness Supportive of Bond Prices / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Before the start of this week’s column, I would like to make a quick announcement. I am not affiliated with MF Global any longer, so please note the new contact email below if you wish to reach me. The old email address and phone number that was published in previous editions is no longer functional. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2009

Fed's Flawed Strategy of Buying Long Dated Treasuries to Force Rates Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Bernanke thinks he can manipulate treasury yields by purchasing long dated treasuries. He can't. The market is simply too big. Please consider Treasurys slide after Fed purchases .

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Do Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Long Run? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Bother With Bonds?
So Then, Bonds for the Long Run?
P/E Ratios at 200? Really?
Mark-to-Market Slip Slides Away
Housing Sales Improve? Not Hardly

Investors, we are told, demand a risk premium for investing in stocks rather than bonds. Without that extra return, why invest in risky stocks if you can get guaranteed returns in bonds? This week we look at a brilliantly done paper examining whether or not investors have gotten better returns from stocks over the really long run and not just the last ten years, when stocks have wandered in the wilderness. This will not sit well with the buy and hope crowd, but the data is what the data is. Then we look at how bulls are spinning bad news into good and, if we have time, look at how you should analyze GDP numbers. Are we really down 6%? (Short answer: no.) It should make for a very interesting letter.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 27, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Heading for Day of Reckoning / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: The U.K. Treasury held a bond auction on Wednesday morning. On the offer were 1.75 billion pounds ($2.55 billion ) worth of 40-year “Gilts” — the U.K. equivalent of U.S. Treasuries. There was just one problem …

Buyers went on strike! They offered to purchase just 1.63 billion pounds ($2.37 billion) of debt.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields: Government Intervention Breeds Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor many months, I have been tracking US Government 10 year Treasury bonds essentially stating that they have topped out. In my most recent article on Treasury bonds, I stated: "the upside for Treasury bonds is limited, and there is a high degree of certainty that a new secular trend is developing that favors higher yield pressures. "

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

How China Will Deal with the Growing U.S. Debt Mountain / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Patalon III writes: Although there's a veritable laundry list of obstacles that could blunt the U.S. government's ongoing economic turnaround efforts, its single-biggest challenge may come from its single-biggest creditor - China.

When China announced a new array of stimulus measures earlier this month , this very important plan was overshadowed by China Premier Wen Jiabao's concerns about the United States' quickly growing debt load.

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Politics

Monday, March 23, 2009

China Afraid of Loss of Value of $2 Trillion of Reserves / Politics / US Bonds

By: Pravda

Dominick L. Auci writes: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is worried. His country keeps over $2 trillion of its foreign reserves in U.S. Treasuries. He's afraid that Obama's big spending plans will weaken the dollar and erode the value of those enormous assets. Given the dismal financial state of the rest of the world, that's a pretty high-class problem, especially for a devout communist. Jiaboa called on the United States to “honor its word, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets”.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 23, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Jolted by Panic Mode Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market was jolted up by the “surprise” (not entirely for the readers of this column) announcement that the Fed will be buying not only additional boatloads of Mortgage Backed Securities and Agency bonds, but also up to $300 Billion Treasury paper during the next 6 months in order to keep a lid on interest rates for the foreseeable future. As previously discussed, the Fed has already taken the Fed Funds Rate down to zero, so they are “all in” on that front. Now they opened a new kettle of fish by joining the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan in what is called Quantitative Easing – i.e. purchasing Treasury bonds in the Fed's case.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Fed illusion as Rising U.S. Bond Prices Cancelled Out by Plunging Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clive_Maund

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week a very dangerous precedent was set when the Fed announced that it is going to start overtly intervening to backstop the ailing Treasury market. The market's verdict on this announcement was immediate and unequivocal. While Treasuries rallied sharply as one might expect, the dollar cratered and gold staged a dramatic turnaround to close sharply higher. The reason that this precedent is so dangerous is that once they start monetising this debt, which means creating money to buy that portion of newly created Treasury debt that cannot be sold off, there will be no end to it - they will eventually find themselves buying more and more of it, as foreign buyers continue to withdraw, deterred by a combination of pitifully low yields and any prospective capital gain being wiped out by the continued decline in the dollar that must transpire as a result of diluting the currency by creating money to absorb unsold Treasury paper.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 22, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Reach the Bottom, Upward Pressure Starts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed has done everything possible to stimulate the economy by slashed interest rates to record lows, injecting billions of dollars into the financial system and even recently saying it will begin a program to buy up to $300 billion in government treasuries. All of these efforts have driven bond yields down to record lows. Models are now indicating that yields are on the rise.

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