Category: GeoPolitics
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, September 05, 2015
China’s Worst nightmare--The US Oil Weapon / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Submissions
Tingbin Zhang writes: China’s islanding building on the four-mile-long and two-mile-wide Subi Reef in the South China Sea has put The US in a tight spot. To protect its ally from China’s aggression, The US will be left with little choice but to constrain China by military means. However, the US won't directly engage China in the war in the foreseeable future, because the US dominates China with its superior naval and air force and the only way for China to level the playing field is to apply nuclear weapons. The nuclear nature of Sino-American warfare will make both the world no.1 and no.2 economy the fallen giants.
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Thursday, August 20, 2015
Moving Toward a Geopolitical Marketplace / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
Jay Ogilvy writes: This column frames a question to which I do not have the answer. Or think of it as a historical agenda: How can we bring the logic of free market exchange into the domain of geopolitical conflict?
Why would we want to do such a thing? It's not simply a matter of substituting gold for guns, or nonviolent exchange for violent exchange. The question I am posing is not based on some utopian hope for perpetual peace. The distinction I want to focus on is the difference between zero-sum conflict and positive-sum exchange.
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Thursday, August 20, 2015
What's Really At Stake With The Iran Nuclear Deal / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: OilPrice_Com
Recently, I wrote on these pages that a remarkable turnaround was taking place in the President's fortunes. It's an impressive display of rising from the depths of falling popularity last fall, and it is starting to be felt in many areas, with major impacts on the future of energy. At his lowest point, the U.S. President was widely regarded as a lame duck, shedding influence and power, and on a down-hill slide.
This was followed by a number of embarrassments, with one of the worst coming from Russia, when it chose to provide sanctuary to Edward Snowden who revealed that the U.S. was hacking the strategic communications of its closest allies.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Quantum Geopolitics / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
By Reva Bhalla: Forecasting the shape the world will take in several years or decades is an audacious undertaking. There are no images to observe or precise data points to anchor us. We can only create a picture, and a fuzzy one at best. This is, after all, our basic human empirical instinct: to draw effortlessly from the vivid imagery of our present world and past experiences while we squint and hesitate before faint, blobby images of the future.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Geopolitics Hot Summer of 2015 is Getting a Lot Hotter / Commodities / GeoPolitics
By: Atlantic_Perspective
Bill Gates says there was never a better time to be alive. Has he ever been to Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Somalia, Burundi, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Mexico, Venezuela, Ukraine, Greece, Moldova and the whole of Central Asia, just to name a significantly big number of countries and regions?
Bill Gates, just like most people sitting at the top of the human pyramid, looks at the world from the perspective of indicators, totally disconnected from the real world.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
U.S., Russia: The Case for Bilateral Talks / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
Phone calls between relatively low-level diplomats are normally not newsworthy. But Monday's conversation between U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin on the simmering conflict in Ukraine is an exception. The bilateral nature of the conversation and its timing amid mounting claims of cease-fire violations from the Ukrainian government and separatist forces makes it uniquely significant. Moreover, it reaffirms that the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict — whether toward a settlement or toward escalation — will be most strongly shaped not by Kiev but by the actions of and relationship between Moscow and Washington.
Tuesday, July 07, 2015
Is Saudi Arabia Leaving The U.S. Behind For Russia? / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: OilPrice_Com
The news from the recent St. Petersburg Economic Forum, which took place from June 18 to 20, inspired a torrent of speculation on the future direction of energy prices.
But the real buzz at the conference was the unexpected but much publicized visit of the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince, as an emissary of the King. The Prince, who is also his country's Defense Minister, carried the royal message of a direct invitation to President Putin to visit the King, which was immediately accepted and reciprocated, with the Prince accepting on behalf of his father.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
A Net Assessment of East Asia / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
George Friedman writes: When I began this series a month ago, I pointed out that the most significant feature of the global system currently is the ongoing destabilization of the Eurasian land mass, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from the Arctic to the Arabian Sea. One important aspect of this is that the destabilization isn't, at this point, a single systemic crisis, but a series of relatively self-contained disorders. Thus the European, Russian and Middle Eastern systems have different dynamics, and while they touch on each other, they have not yet reached the point of having merged into a single crisis.
Friday, June 12, 2015
Spratly Islands - China Beating Uncle Sam at His Own Game / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Mike_Whitney
The vast build up of military assets in the Asia-Pacific signals a fundamental change in U.S. policy towards China. Washington no longer believes that China can be integrated into the existing US-led system. Recent actions taken by China– particularly the announcement that it planned to launch an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) that would compete head-to-head with the World Bank and IMF— have set off alarms in the Capital where behind-the-scenes powerbrokers and think tank pundits agree that a more “robust” policy is needed to slow China’s ascendency. The current confrontation in the South China Sea–where the US has demanded that China immediately cease all land reclamation activities–indicates that the new policy has already been activated increasing the prospects of a conflagration between the two nuclear-armed adversaries.
Saturday, May 30, 2015
Pivot Insanity Risking Nuclear War - Why is Obama Goading China? / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Mike_Whitney
US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is willing to risk a war with China in order to defend “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea. Speaking in Honolulu, Hawaii on Wednesday, Carter issued his “most forceful” warning yet, demanding “an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation” by China in the disputed Spratly Islands.
Carter said: “There should be no mistake: The United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.” He also added that the United States intended to remain “the principal security power in the Asia-Pacific for decades to come.”
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Thursday, May 28, 2015
George Soros Warns of “Third World War” / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: GoldCore
- War “inevitable” if U.S. meddles in South China Sea – Global Times
- Senior NATO official warns that “we’ll probably be at war this summer”
- Soros warns of ‘New World Order’ and war with China
- Soros warns could be “on the threshold of a Third World War”
- Many countries in Pacific lay claim to strategically important and mineral rich islands
- Tensions between U.S. and China and Russia escalating
- War would have many facets including cyber-warfare and currency wars
Thursday, May 21, 2015
The Russia-West Rivalry in the Balkans / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
Russia, Turkey and the West all share one rival in the Balkans: political instability. Located at the confluence of three historic empires, the strip of land between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea has long been the focus of competition among global powers. Now it is just one arena in the standoff between Russia and the West. Yet, with both sides attempting to buy influence with investments and energy projects, and with Turkey struggling to keep pace, internal political challenges threaten to undermine outside efforts to develop and shape the region. As major powers use their financial and political clout to gain influence in the Balkans, weak local governments will continue to balance among competing nations.
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
World War II and the Origins of American Unease / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
We are at the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. That victory did not usher in an era of universal peace. Rather, it introduced a new constellation of powers and a complex balance among them. Europe's great powers and empires declined, and the United States and the Soviet Union replaced them, performing an old dance to new musical instruments. Technology, geopolitics' companion, evolved dramatically as nuclear weapons, satellites and the microchip — among myriad wonders and horrors — changed not only the rules of war but also the circumstances under which war was possible. But one thing remained constant: Geopolitics, technology and war remained inseparable comrades.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
European War Games: Responses to Russian Military Drills / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
Several events have coincided to demonstrate the dynamic, if not guarded, relationship between Russia and the Nordic and Baltic states. Ten NATO countries and Sweden launched a two-week planned exercise in the North Sea on May 4 to improve their anti-submarine warfare capabilities. On the same day, Finland — not a NATO member — began mailing letters to about 900,000 reservists informing them of their roles in a potential crisis situation. Meanwhile, Sweden's Foreign Ministry formally complained to Russian authorities that Russian navy ships were disrupting cable-laying work in waters between Sweden and Lithuania, the latest in a series of formal complaints over Russia's activity in the area. Concurrently, the Swedish and Lithuanian foreign ministers met with Moldova's pro-West leaders in Chisinau.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
The Real Reason Why Obama Wants to Lift Sanctions on Iran / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Mike_Whitney
“It is essential to recognize that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapons program, nor does it possess a nuclear weapon. On February 26, James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Ayatollah Khomenei, the supreme leader of Iran, ended his country’s nuclear weapons program in 2003 and “as far as we know, he’s not made the decision to go for a nuclear weapon.” This repeats the “high-confidence” judgement of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) that was first made in November 2007.”
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Coming to Terms With the American Empire / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
George Friedman writes: "Empire" is a dirty word. Considering the behavior of many empires, that is not unreasonable. But empire is also simply a description of a condition, many times unplanned and rarely intended. It is a condition that arises from a massive imbalance of power. Indeed, the empires created on purpose, such as Napoleonic France and Nazi Germany, have rarely lasted. Most empires do not plan to become one. They become one and then realize what they are. Sometimes they do not realize what they are for a long time, and that failure to see reality can have massive consequences.
Thursday, April 09, 2015
Who Owns the North Pole? / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: MISES
Benjamin M. Wiegold writes: The battle for the North Pole is snowballing between national governments along the Arctic Circle, as they all have their eyes set on the vast natural resources residing in the Arctic region. Indeed, it’s estimated the Arctic Ocean floor contains 22 percent of all unused oil and natural gas in the world — the largest remaining untapped concentration.
From this year until 2017, the US will hold the chair of the Arctic Council (AC) — an international forum founded in 1996, comprised of member states Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the US.The purpose of the AC is to
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Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Middle East Balance of Power Matures / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
George Friedman writes: Last week, a coalition of predominantly Sunni Arab countries, primarily from the Arabian Peninsula and organized by Saudi Arabia, launched airstrikes in Yemen that have continued into this week. The airstrikes target Yemeni al-Houthis, a Shiite sect supported by Iran, and their Sunni partners, which include the majority of military forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. What made the strikes particularly interesting was what was lacking: U.S. aircraft. Although the United States provided intelligence and other support, it was a coalition of Arab states that launched the extended air campaign against the al-Houthis.
Sunday, March 08, 2015
How Putin Blocked the U.S. Pivot to Asia - Get Vlad! / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Mike_Whitney
Read full article... Read full article...“The collapse of the Soviet Union removed the only constraint on Washington’s power to act unilaterally abroad…. Suddenly the United States found itself to be the Uni-power, the ‘world’s only superpower.’ Neoconservatives proclaimed ‘the end of history.'”— Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury
“Don’t blame the mirror if your face is crooked.” — Russian proverb
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Europe - The Intersection of Three Crises / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
Reva Bhalla writes: Within the past two weeks, a temporary deal to keep Greece in the eurozone was reached in Brussels, a cease-fire roadmap was agreed to in Minsk and Iranian negotiators advanced a potential nuclear deal in Geneva. Squadrons of diplomats have forestalled one geopolitical crisis after another. Yet it would be premature, even reckless, to assume that the fault lines defining these issues are effectively stable. Understanding how these crises are inextricably linked is the first step toward assessing when and where the next flare-up is likely to occur.