Category: Stock Market Sentiment
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Widening Divergence / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
For the US equities market, we see a widening divergence between the "Smart Money" and the "Dumb Money" indicators. The "dumb money" has maintained its extreme bullishness from last week while the "smart money" is now more bearish.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Is More Bulls A Good Thing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Although the S&P500 lost 4.9% for the week, the bullish contingent actually grew stronger. This can be seen in the "Dumb Money" indicator shown in figure 1. The "Dumb Money" indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investor Intelligence; 2) Market Vane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio.
Monday, May 04, 2009
The Insider Selling Question to Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Richard_Shaw
The ratio of share sales to share purchases by US insiders shot way into bear territory at the height of the stock market rally in the US stock market during April.
The net sales spike was much higher than at any time in the past year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 04, 2009
Stock Market Sentiment No Change, Continues to Point to a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
There really hasn't been any change in investor sentiment, but this is not unusual at market tops, which tend to be more drawn out affairs as the discourse between bulls and bears takes on a deafening pitch.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Will Institutional Investors Kill the Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Marty_Chenard
As you know, we track how much Institutional Buying and Institutional Selling occurs everyday. We also track what is happening to the net value of the "core holdings" held by Institutional investors.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: The Same Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
It is the same story this week as last as this is now the sixth week in a row where investor sentiment, as measured by the "Dumb Money" indicator, remains neutral. When we couple this with the fact that prices on the major stock indices remain below their 40 week moving averages, there is a high likelihood that the market will rollover in the next several weeks.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Stock Market Sentiment Indicator Looking for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
This is now the fourth week in a row where investor sentiment, as measured by the "Dumb Money" indicator, remains neutral. When we couple this with the fact that prices on the major stock indices remain below their 40 week moving averages, there is a high likelihood that the market will rollover in the next several weeks. I have previously discussed these observations in the article, "Investor Sentiment: Some Context".Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Should I Believe in this Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Money_Morning
Answers to Your Most Pressing Questions
Good morning! As you might imagine, I'm getting a lot of questions on the markets lately at various conferences around the world so I thought I'd share a few of the most pressing with you this morning:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 06, 2009
Investor Sentiment: Converting Stock Market Bears To Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
As the equity markets continued their surge this past week, more bears have been converted to bulls. The number of bulls is by no means extreme, but as key resistance levels are approached, it appears that there will be fewer investors on the sidelines (i.e., new buyers) that could possibly power the market higher. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Neutral Stock Market Sentiment Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
This is the second week in a row that investor sentiment is neutral. While there is nothing unusual about this, there are two scenarios that will likely play out over the next 3 to 4 weeks. In scenario #1, the market and current intermediate term price cycle will top out when there is extreme bullish sentiment (i.e., bear signal). To attract more bulls the equity markets will need to be trading meaningfully higher. In scenario #2, the rally will likely churn along for the next four to six weeks before rolling over. In this case, dips will be bought by those late to the party; marginal new highs may be seen, but in the end, the rally will fizzle and it will be tough to make money. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Sustainable Stock Market Rally Depends on Confidence Measures / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
It is important that confidence be restored for the recent stock market gains to be more enduring. A few comments regarding this issue are highlighted in this post. As shown in Sunday's “ Words from the Wise ” review, there is a strong historical relationship between the US Consumer Confidence Index and the 12-month change in the S&P 500 Index. One needs to take a view on the direction of consumer confidence, but should it for argument's sake pick up from 30 to 40 by the end of June, the relationship indicates a S&P 500 decline of 30-35% in year-ago terms. Using end-of-quarter prices, this means an Index at between 832 and 896 by mid-year. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Indicator Not a Factor / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
This week investor sentiment is neutral. The bearish sentiment (i.e., bull signal) of the past three weeks has dissipated. Going forward, equities will need to rely upon their own merits to score gains. In other words, as bears have turned into bulls, sentiment will be less of a factor in any price appreciation. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Stock Market Bottom and the Bookstore Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Clif_Droke
It’s hard to be positive about the stock market when all around us gloom prevails. Visiting a local Barnes & Noble recently made me conscious of just how gloomy everyone is feeling these days.
While there I made a list of some of the titles in the financial section. Finding a book these days with a bullish theme – or even a non-emotional, level-headed theme –is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. All I saw was one bearish tome after another. Here’s the list of titles I compiled:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Still Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Despite last week's big jump in the equity markets, the "dumb money" remains bearish on equities. These investors appear to be reluctant and still on the sidelines. The "smart money" is still bullish. This is a bullish alignment of signals suggesting that dips will be bought. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Bullish Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
For 13 weeks the "dumb money" has been on the wrong side of the trend and hopeful that the November, 2008 lows would hold. The "smart money" has not been bullish on the markets for about 20 weeks now. With the November, 2008 lows on the S&P500 convincingly behind us, the "dumb money" has turned bearish and the "smart money" is now the most bullish it has been in 30 weeks. These are bullish signals for equities. Read full article... Read full article...