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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Recession 2017

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, June 01, 2017

The Next Recession May Be A Complete Reset Of All Asset Valuations / Economics / Recession 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Sometime this year, world public and private plus unfunded pensions will surpass $300 trillion. That is not even counting the $100 trillion in US government unfunded liabilities. Oops.

These obligations cannot be paid. A time is coming when the market and voters will realize this.

Will voters decide to tax “the rich” more? Will they increase their VAT rates and further slow growth? Will they reduce benefits? No matter what they decide, hard choices will bring political turmoil.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Is US Economy at the Cusp of the Next Recession? or Maybe Worse? / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Plunger

Part II takes a look at the macro economic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- its not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade.

When the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked”– Warren Buffet

“This time around everything gets revealed in the next recession”-Plunger

In the next recession those leaning the wrong way… the levered players, will be forced to heave out their non-productive assets at fire sale prices. Commodity producers with entrenched costs will have to increase production as lower prices beget even lower prices since insufficient cash flows can only be recovered through higher volume production.

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Economics

Thursday, February 09, 2017

According to “Unmassaged Data” the US Economy is Rolling Over / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Graham_Summers

Yet another “unmassaged” data point has shown that the US economy is rolling over.

If you’ve been reading me for a while you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is the fact that headline US economic data (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc.) is massaged to the point of being fiction.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Bad News For Stock Bulls.. the US is Sliding Into Recession / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Graham_Summers

While the financial media was applauding last week’s jobs number, those of us who actually look into the details can tell you that the report was complete fiction.

The headline number of 227,000 was largely crafted through seasonal adjustments, NOT actual job creation. At a minimum 170,000 of those jobs were created in an excel spreadsheet by bean counters, NOT by businesses hiring.

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Economics

Saturday, January 14, 2017

It’s Confirmed, the US is Officially in Recession / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Graham_Summers

The US is officially in a recession.

This won’t show up in the “official” data… because the official data is fiction. GDP numbers might as well be in a Harry Potter novel, they’re that inaccurate and ridiculous.

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Economics

Friday, December 02, 2016

We Are Putting Off the Inevitable / Economics / Recession 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Only two presidents in history did not see a recession, and they were inaugurated after single-term presidents. In every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency, there’s been a recession. This means there is a 100% chance of recession for the new president.

My friend Raoul Pal, in his latest Global Macro Investor, talks about the potential for a recession in 2017:

The following chart shows every recession since 1910 (in yellow) with the new president after a two-term election marked in white and the new presidents after a single-term presidency in red. Wilson and Eisenhower appear as both. Only Coolidge saw more than a year (sixteen months) from his second-term election and the onset of the subsequent recession at the end of WWI…

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Economics

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

The Trump Administration Winter is Coming / Economics / Recession 2017

By: John_Mauldin

How on God’s green earth are we supposed to make sense, from an economic and investment portfolio view, of what is happening?

A recession could change everything

It has been quite a while since we have had a recession. When we do have one, it’s going to further limit our choices.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next US Recession? / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

Trump May Have "Pricked" The Global Bond Bubble

Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked.

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Economics

Friday, October 21, 2016

Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

The central bankers are capable of achieving many extraordinary results but not all economic and financial problems can be solved by central bankers. Central Bankers for example have the power to solve liquidity issues, but it is impossible for them to solve solvency issues.  Central Bankers through Financial Repression can transfer risk , however they can't remove it from the system. Additionally, Central bankers may be able to delay a recession temporarily, but  they can't prevent the business cycle from running its natural course.

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