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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold & Silver 2020

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Gold/Silver Ratio, SPX, Yield Curve and a Story to Tell / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

I most often use linear scale charts for stocks, markets and indicators for their more absolute views. But in the case below we conjure up a long-term log scale chart showing the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) and the S&P 500 (SPX), as it works better in providing a percentage-based relationship between an indicator of market liquidity and inflation when declining and lack of liquidity, deflation or… it has to be said, Goldilocks, when rising.

Now, when viewing the most recent Goldilocks phase, where SPX has gone in positive correlation with the GSR we will have to suspend disbelief that this is anything normal or natural. It was created by will of man as first the Bernanke Fed conjured a balls out inflation out of 2008’s deflationary destruction and then as a crowning achievement, concocted Operation Twist in order to manipulate the bond market into flashing this signal… ‘Nope, no inflation here!’

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Three Upside and One Downside Risk for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Our base scenario for 2020 is that it might be a worse year for gold than 2019 was. However, there are three major upside (and one downside) risks for the gold market, which could materialize in 2020. Today’s article will introduce you to these potential catalysts that could send gold prices higher (or significantly lower) in 2020.

We stated earlier that unless something bad happens, 2020 may be worse for the yellow metal than 2019, as gold fundamentals seem to have deteriorated since the last year. Of course, bad things are happening all the time, but do not result in any possible negative developments. Rather, we have in mind three downside risks to our macroeconomic outlook, or three upside risks for gold. What are they?

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2020

A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Apparently, there is no limit. This seems especially true right now with all of the “obvious” signs and indicators staring you in the face. It is almost blasphemous to speak cautiously. Better to let your imagination run wild and join in the revelry.

I can’t do that. I don’t choose to be dumped into the same cauldron of boiling fantasy with other analysts and advisors, who tout and promote based on the latest headlines. There has to be more to it. I think there is.

Some of this has to do with marketing. “Let’s make hay while the sun shines!” I get that. But I don’t like being in a large crowd when emotions grow unchecked and fundamentals are ignored.

If you are interested in attending a pep rally for much higher gold prices, move on. You won’t find it here.

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2020

Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Two cities are besieged. One by officials, activists and business leaders, while the second by bloodthirsty politicians. Will anyone escape? No one knows, but the gold coin has always helped bribe the guards to look the other way…

Just take a look at how it held value recently:

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Commodities

Thursday, January 23, 2020

The Next Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector remains in a correction, and as long as the 200-day moving averages hold, a bullish consolidation that began last September.

Sure, Gold made a new high and is still holding around the previous high, but the rest of the sector has not confirmed that strength. When Gold is outperforming Silver and the gold stocks, it is not a bullish signal for the short-term.

With that in mind, we can look ahead to anticipate potential catalysts that could push the sector into breakout mode and to new highs. 

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Commodities

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Silver Could Be Close To An Important Resolution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is still in consolidation mode since early September, but could be close to a resolution.

Below, is chart of silver:

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Debt the Only 'Bubble' That Counts, Buy Gold and Silver! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger considers the last week in the stock and precious metals markets.

Ever since Sept. 19, 2008, when Hammerin' Hank Paulson appeared in front of the U.S. Congress on bended knee and begged those clueless politicians for a bailout—which he did successfully—the spread of moral hazard throughout the world has been a contagion that makes the Bubonic plague appear as harmless as the common cold.

That was, in fact, the day that shall go down in fiscal infamy as a most dangerous precedent was etched into the fabric and soul of the U.S. financial system. Not only did it set the behavioral course for the banker-politico alliance, it laid out as an insidious blueprint the operation manual for treasury departments and central banks around the world, the result being where we are today, a global economy teetering on an Mount Everest of debt with no solution on any horizon.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

What Do Fresh U.S. Economic Reports Imply for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Latest economic data were published last week, indicating that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing. Gold prices held up relatively well – but can it last?

Recent U.S. Economic Data Show General Health

Last week was full of economic reports. Let’s analyze them. First, the CPI rose 0.2 percent in December, slightly below expectations and the 0.3-percent increase in November. But as the chart below shows, the CPI (and the core CPI as well) rose 2.3 percent over the whole 2019, which was the largest advance since the 3.0-percent rise in 2011. Yet inflation is still quite low by historical standards.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Some basic logic must come to the table in the Gold pricing mechanism. The easiest way to keep the Gold price down is NOT TO USE IT IN TRADE, NOR IN BANKING RESERVES, and to relegate it to the sidelines as the barbaric metal. Some deep amusement comes always in hearing that Gold does not have value, does not earn a yield, and has no uses. Watching the destruction in bond principal value leads the observer to note how Gold holds its value in times of crisis, and even rises against the general paper tide. The bond market crisis is global this time, unlike in 2008. Each debt downgrade to BBB, within the context of fallen angels, brings a realized loss in bond value. All this occurs with a rising Gold price, even with pauses for consolidation. The best way to lift the Gold price is TO USE IT IN TRADE AND IN RESERVES MANAGEMENT. The actual usage further motivates the proper value to be instilled, regardless of type of usage.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2020

Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals got off to an explosive early start to 2020 as tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove safe-haven buying.

Of course, gold and silver markets will need more than a geopolitical flare up to drive a long-term bull market advance.

The question for investors is whether the fundamental picture now looks promising or fleeting.

In our view, the fundamentals are turning in favor of higher gold and silver prices.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 16, 2020

There Is Still Time To Get Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver appears to be very close to an even bigger move higher. Most of the hard work of the double-bottom since 2015 is done.

The coming leg higher is the one that will likely take prices to all-time highs. Below, is a long-term Silver chart:

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Commodities

Thursday, January 16, 2020

Another Repo Market Liquidity Injection for Gold Bulls to Cheer / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last Thursday, the New York Fed added more than $80 billion in fresh temporary liquidity to the financial markets. Move over folks, nothing to see here – but what does it mean for gold prices?

Repo Crisis Is Not Over

Last week on Thursday, the New York Fed added $83.1 billion in temporary liquidity to financial markets. And banks’ demand for liquidity flared up again on Tuesday. If you haven’t heard of it, don’t worry – almost no one did. After all, journalism is about covering important stories… with a pillow!

The Fed not only injected some fresh liquidity, but also noted that it “may keep adding temporary money to markets for longer than policy makers had expected in September,” at least through April. So much for the normalization of monetary policy…

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This, the second part of our Silver research article suggesting Silver may be forming a massive price base in preparation for an explosive upside move, will continue from Part I of this research series.

Our research team believes Silver is setting up in a price pattern that may already be “ripe” for an explosive upside move.  Our researchers have poured over the data and believe the disparity between Gold and Silver is already at excessive levels. 

Historically, anytime the disparity between Gold prices and Silver prices (rationalized into comparative Gold price levels) breaches 30% to 60% and Gold begins an upside price advance, Silver typically begins to move higher with 4 to 8+ months.  This setup pushes the Gold to Silver ratio back below 50 or 60 as Silver rallies substantially higher, and faster than the price of Gold.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver's progress in comparison to gold's following recent world events.

Silver's recent rally looks diminutive and stunted compared to gold's, but that's normal at this early stage of a new bull market, when silver typically underperforms gold due to investors being risk-averse and silver being perceived as more risky and volatile than gold.

Nevertheless, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart, silver did manage to break out of its reactive downtrend in force from early September. Last week, at the time Iran lobbed missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq, it had a go at breaking above its late September highs. But it was not up to the task and fell back, putting in a reversal candle on big volume, which suggests that it probably has further to fall short term—perhaps back to the upper boundary of the downtrend channel shown. But with the overall tenor of this chart positive, it should then turn higher again.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the effects of recent geopolitical events on the precious metals markets.

It has been a week of surprises since the last updates were posted. First, I had not expected Iran to retaliate following the murder of its top general by a U.S. drone—but it did, despite the risks, as it was politically necessary to assuage the extreme anger of its population who demanded revenge.

The next surprise was that Israel and the U.S. did not use this retaliation as an excuse to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, which is what they really want to do. As we know, the long-term goal of Israel and the U.S. is to subjugate Iran, and they will not stop until they attain this goal.

And so it goes on. It appears that there was a bit of theater involved in Iran's retaliation, as it clandestinely signaled its intentions which allowed U.S. forces to get out of harm's way. Perhaps U.S. forces did not then launch a blitzkrieg out of consideration for this courtesy.

Regardless of the muddled and unpredictable fundamental situation, which included the accidental downing of a passenger plane by Iranian defensive missile batteries, the charts allowed us to make a reasonably accurate prediction regarding what was likely to happen to the gold price. The call for a near-term top in the precious metals (PM) sector made on the site on Monday looked incorrect the following evening, when gold suddenly surged about $35 on news of the retaliatory Iranian missile strike. But when it later became apparent that there were, strangely, no U.S. troop casualties and no further action against Iran, gold and silver reversed dramatically and dropped quite hard, as the tension then looked set to ease, at least over the short-term.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Fighting the Fed (and the Crooked Banks) by Holding Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Market forecaster Martin Zweig famously warned investors against underestimating the power of the Federal Reserve Bank to control markets. He coined the phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” back in the 80’s. Precious metals investors are wondering if this is still good advice.

On one hand, it is pretty hard to argue with that bit of wisdom.

The Fed Zweig was referencing had begun taking a more overt role in markets, using interest rates as a tool for managing the economy.

Paul Volcker dramatically raised interest rates to put price inflation from the late 1970’s back under control.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Gold and Silver Flashing Caution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Heads UP …from Rambus Chartology.

“You may recall we were looking at the Japanese YEN / PM complex combo chart several months ago comparing the YEN to the PM complex. For whatever reasons how the YEN goes the PM complex tends to follow. It’s not a perfect correlation but close enough to pay attention. Today the YEN gapped below an important trendline that goes all the way back to October of 2018, second chart from the top.

While the YEN has broken below its October trendline the PM complex is showing a possible 3rd reversal point in the August 2019 trading range. When I went to cash last September it was based on the PM complex building out a 4 point consolidation pattern to consolidate the previous impulse move up. At the time I had no idea what the consolidation pattern may look like only that we would need to see at least 4 reversal points at a minimum.

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Commodities

Monday, January 13, 2020

Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone seems to be focused on Gold recently and seems to be ignoring the real upside potential in Silver.  With all the global economic issues, military tensions, geopolitical issues, and other items continually pushed into the news cycles, it is easy to understand why traders and investors may be ignoring Silver.

Silver has really not started to move like the other precious metals.  Gold is up over 45% since 2016.  Palladium is up over 350% since 2016.  Silver is up only 29% since 2016.  The Gold to Silver ratio is currently at 86.7 – very near to the highest level on record going back over 25 years.

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Commodities

Monday, January 13, 2020

Gold Explodes, Then Implodes – Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, because it has happened before.

Gold’s quick roundtrip from $1540 to $1610 and back again ($1539 earlier today) had its roots in actions and words between the United States and Iran. Prognosticators say there is more to come. Maybe; maybe not. But there is historical precedent for gold’s action.

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