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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Before we look at tonights charts I would like to go over some challenges that we’ll face as the current impulse move in the PM complex continues to move higher. It’s not everyday that you will find yourself getting in close to the bottom of a multi month rally. One of the biggest problems I’ve witnessed over the years, especially with PM stock investors, is they grow complacent as the rally phase starts maturing. They believe they are invincible as their profits rise and everything is right with the world. That complacency usually means not getting out close to the end of the impulse move which is extremely hard to do even if you’re looking for a top. They will either sell in panic as the correction takes hold or hang on to their positions during the entire correction which is emotionally hard to do.

I know many here traded in the 2000 to 2011 bull market in the precious metals complex. During that great bull market how many actually made any serious money? By making serious money I mean actually taking it out of the market to payoff debt or take a major vacation or help someone in need or whatever to actually use it. What the markets give us during the impulse rally will usually take it back during the following consolidation phase as investors aren’t aware of what is taking place until it’s too late. It’s just the nature of trading the markets.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

So here we are, with the sector leading the recovery out of the March crash during still-deflationary times. Inflation? It is not yet anywhere to be found, and that probably has a lot of inflation-centric would-be gold boosters on the sidelines. Someday, when these ladies are in full cheer with inflation signals rising, it will be time for caution.

Meanwhile, for years we have stuck to the real fundamental backdrop that would produce a real bull market in the gold stock sector (ref. the 2001 and Q4 2008 time frames).

Our handy ‘Macrocosm’ generally shows the most important considerations as the larger planets and the least important as the smaller ones. As the gold stock bull market starts to gain attention beyond we gold lunatics and enters the mainstream, I thought I would update each component of the Macrocosm.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Jason_Hamlin

The gold price made a new 2020 high today and looks poised to take out the nominal all-time high around $1,920 and then challenge $2,000 in the months ahead. Some are even estimating that gold could climb to $3,000 by year-end on account of the nearly $10 trillion in new money/debt/stimulus that is being created in the US alone to fight the pandemic.

This 2020 gold price target of $3,000 is a little too aggressive in my view, but I would not be surprised if gold reaches this level at some point over the next few years. Indeed, there seems to be no limit to the amount of new money the FED is willing to create and the government is willing to hand out in order to keep things afloat.

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Commodities

Friday, May 15, 2020

Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The precious metals market did almost nothing yesterday, and consequently we have relatively little to comment on today. There are two subtly bearish signs that we would like to feature, nonetheless.

The first subtly bearish sign is the change in the way the USD Index “topped” this month. In early April, and then in late April, the USDX reversed close to the 101 level and then moved lower in a decisive way, until declining below 99. This time has already proved to be different.

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Commodities

Friday, May 15, 2020

Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical expert Clive Maund explains why he believes gold and silver are powering up for a stratospheric advance.

The deflation and depression is right here, right now, and if you don't believe that, try asking some of the 30 million people who just lost their jobs in the U.S., or those who (used to) work in the catering and tourism industries.

The Federal Reserve is reacting to this situation by working to create hyperinflation, because it finds it preferable to a deflationary implosion. There are two reasons for this. One is that it enables the Fed to continue to fulfill its time-honored role, which is to transfer wealth from the rest of society to the 1%, and the other is it defers complete systemic collapse for a little longer.

The Fed has created a staggering amount of new money since this crisis started a few months ago to feed the debt monster. Its balance sheet has gone exponential and is expanding vertically, guaranteeing hyperinflation, which will begin the moment the velocity of money starts to pick up. Currently there is no velocity of money because the economy is dead, but if you print enough money to throw at it, as in countless trillions, you can get things moving again.

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Commodities

Friday, May 08, 2020

Junior Gold Miners Ready To Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Both Gold and Silver Futures have been struggling to rally above recent high levels since the start of the global stock market collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  Yet, the Junior Gold Miners appear to be telling us the Precious Metals market is boiling hot.

Gold, the bell-weather safe-haven asset, initially collapsed when the US stock market started the massive selloff in late February 2020, then recovered to higher price levels near $1785 recently.  Since reaching these levels, Gold has stalled into a sideways price flag near major resistance.

Silver, on the other hand, is trading near $15.60 and has yet to really recover to anywhere near the levels it had achieved in early January 2020 (near $18.60).

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Commodities

Sunday, May 03, 2020

Monster Gains in Mining Stocks Bode Well for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: MoneyMetals

April marks a second month of truly extraordinary developments in markets – from negatively priced crude oil futures to a record spike in unemployment claims to a lockdown-defying rally in stocks.

The financial media is touting the S&P 500’s surge of more than 13% in April – the biggest one-month gain for the index since 1974.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Gold Stocks Bull Breakout! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week!  Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event.  It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars.  New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners.

The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices.  So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles.  Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair.  Gold stocks’ parallel bull arose from the ashes about a month later in mid-January 2016.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is this sector’s most-popular benchmark today.  It plunged to a fundamentally-absurd all-time-record low of $12.47 at that terrible nadir.  This major gold miners’ ETF had collapsed 81.3% during the previous 4.4 years in an exceedingly-brutal bear market!  Left for dead, virtually everyone hated this small contrarian sector.  But such shocking extremes forge new secular bulls.

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Commodities

Monday, April 27, 2020

How Will You Play the Precious Metals Stocks Bull Market ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

There are as many ways to play the PM sector as there are investors. Some will only buy the big cap PM stocks for safety. Others will only buy the mid cap producers. Some will only buy a mix of big caps and mid cap producers. And then there are the PM stock investors that will only play the juniors. Each has its own advantage depending on your risk tolerance. Some of you are wondering why is Rambus’s portfolio structured like it is with hardly any big caps?

After a great run during the tech bull market that ended in 2000 I was able to basically retire and build our dream home. After that bull market ended I was left looking for another area in which to invest. It wasn’t until early 2002 that I saw a chart for gold which was showing a very large base that caught my attention. Whenever I see a big base I have to study it more to see what is behind the price action. The more I looked, it became apparent to me, that a new bull market may be starting to form in the PM complex.

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Commodities

Monday, April 27, 2020

Gold Stock Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: readtheticker

Gold stocks are the crazy ride in the markets. The swing are so great it does not matter if you miss a bullish the break out as another deep pull back allows you to enter with ease.

The good news is the (!XAU) PHLX Gold/Silver Index (in the chart below) is very friendly to price cycles. These cycles can be used for timing markets, it also makes it clear if you fight the price cycle you may be in line for a heavy draw down.

At the moment XAU price is making new 52 week highs and the blue cycle line suggest a cycle top is due, therefore it may be wise to wait for price to peak and pullback before building positions. A tactical reason (Richard Ney logic) is the big boys have been accumulating in the friendly institutional stocks and this will attract profit taking [as they do not want to get too far ahead of the wider market] easily sending down the gold stock index and components of the XAU.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Junior Gold Miners Dangerously Close to the Cliff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

There are times to keep being focused on higher timeframes, yet the finer ones do send valuable signals at times too. And today, every precious metals investor better pay attention to their message. Take a look at the below chart featuring the miners.

We will compare the junior miners to what GLD ETF and SPY did. The latter are ETFs representing gold and the S&P 500.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 11, 2020

A ‘Good’ Thursday as Gold Stocks Show the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lock down”.

It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.

But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:

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Commodities

Monday, April 06, 2020

Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce.  That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg.  The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.

Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders.  If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going.  Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading.  Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often.  Carpe diem!

The leading and most-popular gold-stock benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  It was the first gold-stock ETF launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead.  GDX’s $10.2b in net assets this week were running 34.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX’s recent raging action reveals what just transpired.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Peak Oil? That was an obvious and widespread promotion while it was in play and did not fool anyone who bothered to step aside from the herd that ran with it.

Peak Terror in broad stock markets? Well, that I don’t discount so readily because this is a system that was a debt-bloated accident waiting for the trigger that turned out to be COVID-19. Terrified casino patrons will pray that the Fed’s bullets are not duds because that is the only way out. That and the still-intact mass confidence in the Keynesian debt scheme that the Fed operates within.

SPX has tanked to the 38% Fib (not annotated on the chart) of the entire policy-manufactured bull market from 2009. While I think there is a big time rally out there ahead somewhere, there is fundamental reason to question the very makings of the bull market and how effective more of those same makings will be. Well before COVID-19 we had SPX due for a manic sentiment blow off and downside reversal. Now the opposite sentiment, Peak Terror, has been slammed into place.

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Commodities

Monday, March 16, 2020

Gold Miners: Dismissing the inflation Bugs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Below is a monthly chart of HUI telling some stories of the past.

  • The 2003 to 2008 bull rally ended with Huey’s “crown of thorns” as I used to call it back then. An H&S that formed at the end of a great inflationary phase in the markets.
  • The great crash of 2008 (Armageddon ’08) was completely deserved because as I’ve belabored for so many years now, you don’t buy gold stocks in any heavy and/or long-term way during cyclical inflationary touts as gold barely keeps up with mining cost commodities and other assets/markets. The crash of Q4 ’08 cleaned out the inflation bugs and it did so with great cruelty and relentlessness. Only when every last bug who’d come aboard for the wrong reasons was exterminated did the bloodshed finally end.
  • So who turned and burned first out of the ’08 (deflationary) bottom? Gold and then the miners, that’s who. They led the whole raft of commodities and stocks, which finally bottomed in March of 2009. Then another massive inflation trade ensued, before blowing out in Q1 of 2011. Then? What I called “Mr. Fat Head” formed as the first drop found support at 375, the sector rammed upward on a QE tout, then failed, taking out 460 on the downside and we proclaimed that was that. Welcome to the bear market.
  • Then years of a bear crash and grind took HUI down to Mr. Fat Head’s measured target, which was around 100.
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Commodities

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower.  That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy.  This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally.  That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Gold Stocks Still Stalled / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are still stalled, mostly grinding sideways despite higher prevailing gold prices.  This lack of progress is really frustrating traders, slowly shifting herd psychology towards apathy.  That’s the mission of high consolidations, gradually rebalancing sentiment by bleeding off greed.  This healthy process has already come a long way, but still needs to fully play out before gold stocks’ next upleg can run.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s most-popular benchmark.  Launched way back in May 2006, its first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead over its peers.  Its $12.7b in net assets this week are running 38.2x larger than its next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX’s lackluster price action in this past half-year or so has disheartened traders.

Last summer the gold stocks blasted higher with gold after its first bull-market breakout in several years.  The gold stocks caught a bid before that landmark event, starting to rally at the end of May as gold surged on US-tariff fears.  By early September GDX had soared 49.0% higher in just 3.2 months!  Over 2/3rds of those big gains came after gold’s bull-market breakout.  GDX crested with gold on September 4th at $30.95.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Copper-gold Deposits to Help Gold Miners Overcome Depletion Dilemma / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Every fiscal quarter the World Gold Council puts out a wonderful little report on the gold market, that is made into an article by just about every mining news outlet. For reasons unknowable to mere mortals like us, the report focuses on gold demand. The reader has to go deep into the report to find the other half of the story, gold supply, and in particular, mined gold supply.

Doing so in the WGC’s latest instalment, the full-year 2019 gold market report, reveals some startling conclusions about “peak gold”. 

The concept of peak gold should be familiar to most readers, and gold investors. Like peak oil, it refers to the point when gold production is no longer growing, as it has been, by 1.8% a year, for over 100 years. It reaches a peak, then declines.

While gold production has been increasing every year, it’s been growing in smaller and smaller amounts. That is, while gold output in 2018 was higher than 2017, it was only 1% higher - 3,347 vs 3,318 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Production in 2017 was 1.3% more than 2016.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2020

This Will Signal A Massive Gold Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks are often cited as recession proof stocks. Although this has not always been true, they do tend to rise when the economy is in a recessions and/or when the general stock market is in decline or showing relatively little gains.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Germany Starts War on Gold  / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Germans, like Indians and Chinese, love their gold - although their reasons for buying and keeping bullion are somewhat different. 

In China and India, gold jewelry is a status symbol - a sign of wealth and success. In Germany, owning gold bars and coins, maybe a 24-karat necklace or two, is a means of preserving wealth, especially in times of war or economic crisis, something never far from Germans’ minds, considering their history.  

Indeed the “war guilt” Germans experience over the atrocities of Nazi Germany is accompanied by fears that their government could again lose control of fiat money, as the Weimar Republic did in the 1920s, leading to devastating hyper-inflation. 

In India “a marriage is not a marriage without gold.” Indians find it auspicious to be-gift gold jewelry during the Diwali festival, which begins in October, and wedding season. Gold-shopping for the bride is thought to bring good fortune and invoke the blessings of a Hindu goddess. At nearly 20 million weddings a year, Indians’ annual demand for the precious metal exceeds 514 tonnes. Easy to see why the country’s private gold holdings are the largest in the world, a mind-boggling 24,000 tonnes. (almost as much as the world’s top 10 central bank holdings combined)

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