Category: Recession 2023
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, November 04, 2023
A Recession is Brewing / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As my analysis of Jan 2023 pointed out (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)
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Monday, September 04, 2023
Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently the yield curve inversion has a 100% hit rate, whenever a yield curve inverts it has always resulted in a recession.
Only problem is that it can take anywhere from 6 months to 3 years for the recession to materialise! Thus is another one of those nothing burgers that most analysts obsess over. For instance take the current inversion as of March 2022, those who swallowed the recession is coming mantra have been sat in money market accounts for the last 9 months whilst stocks such as META first doubled, then tripled and look set to quadruple, what kind of *****-A-Doodle-Doo indicator is the yield curve inversion? Which is why I don't tend to pay it much attention, given that it is pretty much useless in terms of investing.
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Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Michael_Pento
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last SEP that was released in September.
And yet, the Deep State of Wall Street is busy telling investors that the Fed is almost done raising rates, hence, and a new bull market is right around the corner. But history proves this premise to be false. For example, during the preamble to the Great Recession, the Fed Funds Rate reached its apex in June of 2006 at 5.25%. It took 3 years for it to ascend to that level, up from the 1% starting level back in June of 2003. Ben Bernanke then began to cut rates in September of 2007; but the Great Recession began anyway in December of that same year. And, exactly one year from that first rate cut, the stock market went into freefall. This is another clear example of many throughout history that shows rate hikes work with a long lag.
Sunday, November 27, 2022
US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP, what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!
The facts are the US had a recession in 2022 that everyone is ignoring!
The US posted it's 2nd negative GDP of -0.6%, that's -2.4% year to date, what does that mean for stocks? Corporate profits Dividend by GDP graph clearly shows that we are still near the cycle peak, i.e .unlike Q4 2019 BEFORE the pandemic crash, earnings have not contracted anywhere near to signal an earnings bottom. So this metric suggests new highs in the indices are NOT likely anytime soon, especially given that GDP is FALLING. However against this we have the MAGIC of INFLATION that should support nominal stock prices as Inflation INFLATES GDP and corporate profits, case in point being the 1970's where corporate profits ROSE albeit form a 1970 trough, but the indices ended the decade little changed.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
RECESSIONS 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of economic activity of all the major economies the US is the most robust so Recession delayed, which may never materialise. Meanwhile the rest of the world, especially Europe is scrambling to counter soaring energy bills and economic stagnation.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
The Fed Induced Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Dan_Steinbock
From early 2020 to early 2021, the Fed funds rate had been at 0.25%. Though the inflation rate in the US slowed for the third month to 8.2% in September 2022, it remained above market forecasts.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2022
Recession Question Answered / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Michael_Pento
President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the entirety of the money printers who inhabit the Federal Reserve and virtually all of the deep state of Wall Street are still busy trying to convince you that a recession is unlikely. Well, here’s some news for all of them. Whether or not we will have a recession is no longer a question. The recession is already here. The only question is, how deep the recession will become.The consumer is getting attacked on all fronts and their consumption accounts for nearly 70% of GDP. Falling real wages, spiking debt service costs, plunging crypto currencies, sinking stock prices and battered bond values are seriously injuring their financial health. And coming soon to a theater near you, a real estate wreck is in the offing. Instead of home prices rising 20% per annum, like they have over the last couple of years, the pace of home price appreciation should soon decline sharply. Home affordability is at a record low, while new listings and price reductions are on the rise. Home equity extractions have been severely depressed due to rising mortgage rates. And now, depreciating real estate values shut down to the bad consumer habit of relying on equity extraction to boost consumption.
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Tuesday, May 10, 2022
RECESSION RISKS 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly it does not actually matter if a recession materialises during 2023 or not all that matters is most people THINK it's going to happen, for asset prices discount the future which is why today stock prices are falling even if that is not being reflected in the stock indices due to the Stocks Bear Market Tornado which I will cover in depth in a forthcoming stocks article. Nevertheless there is a RISK of inflation that I have been flagging a warning of a good 6 months BEFORE the current Yield Curve inversion.
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